stormtracker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, it looks slightly better than the NAM, but it still looks like its gonna miss the phase at 42. I hope I'm wrong. Ridging looks a little better out west tho, compared to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'll go one step further, no phase on this run.. Scratch my comment for now.. Sorry about that guys.. Well, it looks slightly better than the NAM, but it still looks like its gonna miss the phase at 42. I hope I'm wrong. Ridging looks a little better out west tho, compared to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 To me, the GFS looks much better than the NAM through 42.. it doesn't attempt to hang back and string out the southern vort as much as the NAM. The ridging is more pronounced it seems (300mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 doesnt phase at 42. Northern stream looks to get there in time but nothing happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxClimate Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 alll very good points... 3. according to then GFS and GGEM.... but this is kind of circular reasoning no? your point is right but you are looking at those Models that show storm or one that is not close enough ... to show thee is no storm that is close enough? No, you're right ... some models are more progressive with this streak than others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 doesnt phase at 42. Northern stream looks to get there in time but nothing happens. ukie would confirm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I have it through 54, not enough digging taking place fr a good run for the MID atl, but could still be good for New Enlgland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 hr 48 and 54, just looks like two seperate streams trying to get something going but trough is neutral at best. looks like southern stream just gets kicked away instead of cycyloning into a phase with a h5 low forming over the OH valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 WAY east compared to 6z miss for the Mid Atl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It looks to me like it phases at 60, but would like to see the trough start to go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 66 1008 low just off border of GA and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Unless the 12z GFS really changes things up, I'm starting to move away from the all-out blizzard scenario for I-95, inluding DCA. Boston & LI might get in on the action, but I'm less hopeful for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not going to be a good run. Bad 12Z suite so far. This threat is dying fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM and GFS should be pretty accurate through 48, so this whole threat is losing steam fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 To my untrained eye, it seems like we're not missing this by much at all. The 66 hr pane of the GFS shows that the s/w's catch each other and phase, but you don't get the trough turning negative quite in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Is it just me or is the GFS much slower than it had been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 totals nyc to dc 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What does this say about the Euro if the NAM and GFS end up right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Way East....SE New England not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBRE Wx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Is it just me or is the GFS much slower than it had been? It had slowed down yesterday now its sped way up since it misses southern stream phase. Instead of near NC Outer Banks Sunday evening it's off Long Island! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What does this say about the Euro if the NAM and GFS end up right? That someone needs to get to work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chagrin Falls Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Here are my thoughts: There are significant differences even at initialization for both the NAM and GFS at 12Z. Looking at the 500 hPa initialization charts, the NAM seems like everything is shifted a bit west compared to the GFS. With regards to the western Atlantic low, the NAM shows a stronger low with more of a elongated trough to the SW, the vorticity maxima around the low are stronger. The vorticity maxima in NW Arizona is displaced about 50 miles west of the GFS and it is stronger. At H+24 the trend persists, the western Atlantic low is shifted west with the NAM but also a bit weaker than the GFS. The vort max has moved ESE to the Texas Panhandle where the NAM is a bit further west, a bit slower and a bit stronger. At H+48 the trend persists, but not only that the GFS & NAM begin diverging significantly. In my view, the NAM has a perturbation problem at initialization which becomes a positive feedback loop throughout the entire model run. The NAM has the vort max southwest of Galveston Bay, TX and the northern stream energy around Kansas City, MO. Meanwhile, the GFS is a bit less amplified with both the southern and northern streams, however the vort max in the southern stream is much more progressive. At H+48 the 500 hPa vorticity maxima is around Baton Rouge, that is a difference of about 250 miles and is extremely significant in my view at H+48 when we consider the phasing need which others have discussed. A lot happens after H+48 so I’ll go to H+60. The NAM is not phasing because it is slower with the southern stream vorticity max. The northern and southern streams are clearly separated with the vort max well south of New Orleans, while with the GFS the streams are beginning to phase, the separation of the northern and southern streams are clearly less identifiable, the trough is displaced further west and is beginning to become more amplified. At H+72 the the NAM is beginning to phase put the initial piece of southern energy is driven down to West Palm Beach, FL? The GFS is more phased and the upper-level trough is more amplified. After 72 hours I wouldn’t trust either model so I’ll patiently wait for the ECMWF ensembles to come out, but in a nut-shell I believe the NAM is suffering from initialization issues. I'm very interested to see the ECMWF's interpretation of the initialization and speed of the energy in the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What does this say about the Euro if the NAM and GFS end up right? gfs had it going to bermuda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What does this say about the Euro if the NAM and GFS end up right? It says maybe we finally put to bed the notion that the Euro is a consistently superior model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 totals nyc to dc 0.00 consolation flurries on christmas, ill take it at this point. Euro missed a big one here it looks like. I guess lesson learned one model, no matter how good, cant beat out every other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What does this say about the Euro if the NAM and GFS end up right? That the Euro is a piece of ****and needs an update. What an awful UKMET coup- I don't think it had us getting any precip at all. And congrats as well to the JMA, KMA, NOGAPS, etc. The southern shortwave is now being better sampled and it is not at all what it had been modeled to be. It just dies out, which doesn't allow any significant phase really with the northern stream. This by the way, makes complete sense in a La Nina. The Euro will completely fold in a matter of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks like a nice partly sunny Sunday-Monday based verbatim off Ukie/NAM/GFS/RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What does this say about the Euro if the NAM and GFS end up right? it says that people need to stop model hugging the one that shows the snow and be objective about the scenerios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 To my untrained eye, it seems like we're not missing this by much at all. The 66 hr pane of the GFS shows that the s/w's catch each other and phase, but you don't get the trough turning negative quite in time. Sort of looks that way. Close, but the northern stream is just not catching the southern shortwave now. I suppose how "close" it looks to happening still keeps it kind of intriguing despite how it's depicted in the 12Z NAM and GFS. We get some kind of very light overrunning in the MA late on the 25th according to this, and that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 What does this say about the Euro if the NAM and GFS end up right? what it tells me is this... The gfs is garbage 7+ days out b/c it teases us with multiple runs of a snowstorm then in the mid range the euro picks up on it - we all get excited in the 5-6 day range and then slowly the nam and gfs start to crummble. We all sit and hope that the euro is right as the American models begin to sniff out the fact that this isn't going to be the blizzard of the century. At the end of the day the euro is not king bur just a tease. Lastly we shouldn't get to excited over threats 100+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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