eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Like this? Ah, of course, spaghetti plots. I used to always check those. Thanks. The graphical displays on raleighwx or ewall are nice, but in conjunction with those one can get a good picture of the full population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On the other hand at this point there is only one way for this to swing It seems to me everything is about as far east and late phased as it can be IF there is going to be any changes IF... it is back to the west especially give the GFS Individual ensemble members 6 posts before this you were bashing them saying they "whiffed". I'm confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 euro ens looks a hair west of the op but maybe not enough to really matter for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 6 posts before this you were bashing them saying they "whiffed". I'm confused. 6 posts BEFORE I made THAT I said this +2.... which means I strongly agree so um where or who or even HOW is saying "+2" " Bashing?" Not trying to start something but I am really NOT following you at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 sorry... Not following you here at all? Sorry can't multiquote for some reason, and it was a couple pages back, but one post said the GFS ensemble mean seems to have "whiffed" then 6 posts later said considering the GFS ensemble members it might move back west. Seeing as how the members make up the mean, the logic didn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 that is NOT always the case. and I hope you know better what you are forgetting here is that it SEEMS the GFS ensemble mean which have also showed a Major east coast storm whiffed as well Sorry can't multiquote for some reason, and it was a couple pages back, but one post said the GFS ensemble mean seems to have "whiffed" then 6 posts later said considering the GFS ensemble members it might move back west. Seeing as how the members make up the mean, the logic didn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 For those "Glass half-fullers" the 18Z NAM will be a different evolution than 12Z. It's a bit quicker with the southern vort. Maybe the end result is the same, but at least some light snow out in front seems plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 12Z Euro ensemble mean track is definitely NW of the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Sorry can't multiquote for some reason, and it was a couple pages back, but one post said the GFS ensemble mean seems to have "whiffed" then 6 posts later said considering the GFS ensemble members it might move back west. Seeing as how the members make up the mean, the logic didn't make sense. OH ok..... yes I see .... I did say that... but in the first instance I was referring to the GFS ensemble mean in the last post I was referring the 12z psu wall limited gfs ensemble surface plots I dont think I was Bashing the GFS at all ...if anything I was harsher on the euro and the euro ensemble mean... at least that was MY intent ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 thanks Srain for taking the comment COMPELTELY out of CONTEXT that comment was made b/c the poster had said how the Euro and euro is now worthless model how did you miss that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 models arent supposed to tell us exactly what is going to happen.. i dont think they ever will though we might get pretty close in the short range. that's what the red tag is for. How hard it must be to not hug the models. I mean they did pick up the idea of this storm 7 days ago to one extent or another. This will make everybody a better forcaster. Like the Giants losing the way they did to the Eagles. It will get them back to the basics, respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 12Z Euro ensemble mean track is definitely NW of the operational. it's close enough not to be that interesting unless maybe you're in sene etc and up there the differences are even more minimal. it's actually pretty close to the 0z mean. we're locking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 OH ok..... yes I see .... I did say that... but in the first instance I was referring to the GFS ensemble mean in the last post I was referring the 12z psu wall limited gfs ensemble surface plots I dont think I was Bashing the GFS at all ...if anything I was harsher on the euro and the euro ensemble mean... at least that was MY intent ... Sorry I guess I asked wrong in the first place, shouldn't have said "bashing", as you weren't. Couldn't figure out your opinion on the GFS ensembles solution which has been pretty steady and still keeps the system around, though not quite close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 thank Srain for taking the comment COMPELTELY out of CONTEXT that comment was made b/c the poster had said how the Euro and euro is now worthless model how did you miss that ? I wish it were "worth" less.....then I wouldn't be one of hundreds sucking the tit off those who are paying customers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Sorry I guess I asked wrong in the first place, shouldn't have said "bashing", as you weren't. Couldn't figure out your opinion on the GFS ensembles solution which has been pretty steady and still keeps the system around, though not quite close enough. OK.... fair enough we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I actually expected the 12z EURO to be a CC special this run; doesn't mean I am more adept at meteorology than anyone else, but I honestly thought that.....as a matter of fact, I txt capecodwx.net (Phil) that from wk before it came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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