Storm At Sea Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Many of the GFS ensemble members still bring coastal snow for a lot of the EC. I think the Euro ensembles will also be telling. Also, I think the nail in the coffin will be with tonight's GGEM. If the GGEM does not trend west, I think it's a done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Lesson learned here: The outlier is the outlier regardless of whether it's the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 All this just proves the point that each model is just a tool. With no support from several models, the red flag was up all along but many refused to look at it. We all remember several times in the past in which the Euro wold lock on for several runs and then that was it. As I remember, this time there was no support from the GFS, the DGEX, the JMA, and the Ukie was very far south. So to take a cue from Alan Greenspan, there was quite a bit of irrational exuberance all along. This was also a great lesson on why many NWS offices and TV/Radio mets will always skew towards climo - for every 1 time it goes to a more significant or extreme solution, there are 4 times that it doesn't. Now back to the Euro. On this storm it has been by far the best of the models (so far) I beleive as it has simply shifted the track off shore. Others have had to make much more dramatic adjustments. I think there is still plenty of time for this to adjust back west. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On the other hand at this point there is only one way for this to swing It seems to me everything is about as far east and late phased as it can be IF there is going to be any changes IF... it is back to the west especially give the GFS Individual ensemble members I could easily see this adjust back west in the next 84 hours. It just won't be enough for many outside SNE and SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 models arent supposed to tell us exactly what is going to happen.. i dont think they ever will though we might get pretty close in the short range. that's what the red tag is for. Nobody said that models are suppsoed to tell us what's going to happen. But they ARE supposed to give us an idea. I think a blizzard vs partly cloudy and breezy is NOT giving us an idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Pretty much. I WOULD end the chances of a blizzard for all of the big cities, except MAYBE Boston. I could see NYC cashing in on a few inches if this trends a little further West, but more than that? Absolutely not. Blizzard idea is dead I think. Could it come back as a zombie? Perhaps, but I doubt. Sure looks nice as wall paper on my desk top though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 that is NOT always the case. and I hope you know better what you are forgetting here is that it SEEMS the GFS ensemble mean which have also showed a Major east coast storm whiffed as well This is partially right. The last 2 or 3 ensemble cycles of the GFS have shown light to moderate QPF along I-95 (possibility lending false support to the Euro). But the mean SLP track has been consistently offshore, especially 18-36 hours ago while the EC and its ensembles were showing a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Sure many are disappointed...but the fact is it another learning opportunity for all us who enjoy tracking the weather. It is not an exact science and each event/storm will react differently because of multiple variables. I still glean a lot of good information from the Pro's who post here...for that "thank you". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On the other hand at this point there is only one way for this to swing It seems to me everything is about as far east and late phased as it can be IF there is going to be any changes IF... it is back to the west especially give the GFS Individual ensemble members Love this post. Seems right and feels right. And Euro upper levels don't look hopeless. But then I think... what about the GGEM? Couldn't that be where this is headed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Nobody said that models are suppsoed to tell us what's going to happen. But they ARE supposed to give us an idea. I think a blizzard vs partly cloudy and breezy is NOT giving us an idea! you have more than one tool at your disposal.. this might be a case of you (global for anyone who bought the euro face value) misusing them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yeah But when it shows the same thing for jan1996 maybe it doesnt count for much that would be true if the nogaps consistently showed suppression and nothng the whole time, but where you might have to give it a little props is the fact that several days ago it DID have the coastal bomb like the others. It began shifting it east more and more until a couple of days ago it began showing the northern stream outrun the sw. It held this for the last two days and ended up being amazingly similar to what the models today are showing now. As far as the jma, the only reason i thought it might be a redflag was when it refused to show a coastal storm even when most of the other models were. The jma is a horrible model but it tends to bias wrapped up lows and never met a coastal it didn't like. meh, maybe just two blind squirrels but a win is a win... i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 On the other hand at this point there is only one way for this to swing It seems to me everything is about as far east and late phased as it can be IF there is going to be any changes IF... it is back to the west especially give the GFS Individual ensemble members Good point, seems like we have hit rock bottom, only way left to go is up (or should i say west) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I hate to say it(shutters)the navy model has been the one computer model all week long predicting this thing goes out to sea and just a strung out mess of snow showers in the southeast wrong....if you go back a few days it had some massive hits of its own...albeit not as many as the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Blizzard idea is dead I think. Could it come back as a zombie? Perhaps, but I doubt. Sure looks nice as wall paper on my desk top though. Blizzard idea can't be dead. That's just as wrong as forecasting 100% chance of 1"+ snow. We are only 1 cycle removed from a major mid-Atlantic snowstorm and 2 cycles removed from a succession of east coast blizzards on the Euro. And as long as a few of the individual members show this outcome (or even close to this outcome), it cannot be DEAD. Just very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 you have more than one tool at your disposal.. this might be a case of you (global for anyone who bought the euro face value) misusing them? I understand that, but history has always said the Euro is king and that if it's consistent, that's what will happen. Yesterday, the models began trending toward the Euro, and the Euro made a slight adjustment East. Figured we were headed toward a consensus. Now we have the GFS is actually the furthest West. To the Euro: (to quote Metallica): Where's your crown, King Nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Each and every model has been wrong at some point this week...no matter which model you choose. If you go back a week..the GFS was the first one to have a storm so even though it performed better than the EC as we got closer, it had its own set of fake storms. Nobody seems to remember the bowling ball scenario it showed for many many runs before moving towards a miller a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, its gonna take awhile for everyone to give their trust back into the Euro model. Well, they shouldn't give it nearly-unconditional trust. It's certainly the best medium-range model on the planet; the verification statistics bear that out. But when it stands alone in opposition to four other operational models and various ensembles, it should never be regarded as more than a low-probability solution. I know it's a whole different ballgame, but while watching for big Plains severe weather setups in the day 4-7 range, I've seen ECMWF meltdowns very similar to what you guys just experienced. I can think of one nearly-identical case from this past April where it actually kept trending better while the GFS/GGEM/UKMET and most ensemble members waffled around within a range of solutions that were all far less favorable. A lot of chasers clung to the ECMWF out of desperation, and of course got burned when it abruptly backed down around D+3. I'm not saying there are any hard and fast rules, and I don't blame anyone for giving the Euro solution more stock the past few days, to a point. I do think that when you've gone 48 hours or more without any other model showing a comparable solution, you have to be extremely skeptical. It's easy to justify clinging to the outlier by "trends" in the other models, but often you forget the big picture: a) those other models were not necessarily ALL trending the right way on every run (only seeing what you want to see), and the magnitude of what favorable trends did appear were not really enough to bring the models in line with the extreme opEC solution. More than anything, my point is that we should all keep this debacle ingrained at the forefront of the model-analyzing compartments of our brains -- and not just for the next week or month. I dare say this is far from the first time the ECM has blown an east coast threat (relative to its competition), but it's easy to forget all the model solutions leading up to bust cases. We generally only remember the evolution of all the models for a week leading up to HECS cases, which admittedly the ECM seems to handle very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I understand that, but history has always said the Euro is king and that if it's consistent, that's what will happen. Yesterday, the models began trending toward the Euro, and the Euro made a slight adjustment East. Figured we were headed toward a consensus. Now we have the GFS is actually the furthest West. To the Euro: (to quote Metallica): Where's your crown, King Nothing? well i felt like all the "trending toward the euro" was hopeful at best and misleading at worst. i guess it's how you choose to look at things. unfortunately computer models arent the only part of a forecast with hidden biases that pop up here and there. hey i started to fall for it at 12z yesterday after saying the euro was off the wall before that, so it happens. but im not surprised with this outcome at all and would probably still consider the euro as leader of the pack moving forward in most situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 which member still gives me a blizzard? i need something to hug. most hug worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 For those who need to vent....might I suggest OT... now specializing in Euro bashing for your pleasure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 And with that, let's take the rest of the model ripping elsewhere Why does the .07 of bad forecasts have to happen for this storm?!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Of the 11 GFS ensemble members from 12z, 3 are showing a major snowstorm for most of the east coast. Another 2 or 3 are showing a glancing blow locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Of the 11 GFS ensemble members from 12z, 3 are showing a major snowstorm for most of the east coast. Another 2 or 3 are showing a glancing blow locally. Just an aside, the GEFS is actually 20 members plus a control.....so it's possible the distribution could be slightly different percentage wise from the entire ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Any discussion of the 12Z Euro operational output? Not so terrible, maybe a few miles trending back west, just a few. Well, maybe 20. The 500 mb trough orientation is sweet, though. Over the next four days, the flow backs around 90 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Any discussion of the 12Z Euro operational output? Not so terrible, maybe a few miles trending back west, just a few. Well, maybe 20. The 500 mb trough orientation is sweet, though. Over the next four days, the flow backs around 90 degrees. it went way east around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Any discussion of the 12Z Euro operational output? Not so terrible, maybe a few miles trending back west, just a few. Well, maybe 20. The 500 mb trough orientation is sweet, though. Over the next four days, the flow backs around 90 degrees. It has been discussed to death, dude. It is way east of 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Just an aside, the GEFS is actually 20 members plus a control.....so it's possible the distribution could be slightly different percentage wise from the entire ensemble. Do you know where we can get access to the full population? Graphically I'm always limited to 11. I'm very interested in the discussion that you are involved in regarding ensemble forecasting in the other thread. I hope some of the people I was debating with yesterday tune in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It has been discussed to death, dude. It is way east of 00Z. I see what you and Ian and others are saying...it just bugs me that the Euro shows a 500 mb low over Ohio at 12Z Sunday and the surface reflection is too far east ...no lifting mechanism, no moisture convergence. I get it...La Nina...progressive flow...phasing is a swing and a miss even with loads of blocking. Weird stuff...last winter we got three 20" blizzards with ease and this winter....back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I understand that, but history has always said the Euro is king and that if it's consistent, that's what will happen. Yesterday, the models began trending toward the Euro, and the Euro made a slight adjustment East. Figured we were headed toward a consensus. Now we have the GFS is actually the furthest West. To the Euro: (to quote Metallica): Where's your crown, King Nothing? There are no "wills" in forecasting weather, especially 5+ days in advance. Surely as a "Meteorologist" you understand that. A majority of the Euro ensembles had consistently shown an OTS solution throughout the OP's bullish run over the past few days... that and the continued lack of support from other models was the writing on the wall, regardless of the Euro's track record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Do you know where we can get access to the full population? Graphically I'm always limited to 11. I'm very interested in the discussion that you are involved in regarding ensemble forecasting in the other thread. I hope some of the people I was debating with yesterday tune in. Like this? Spaghetti charts courtesy of the Department of Commerce and NOAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.