March 17-18 Severe Weather Event

[cheese007]

Man things kicked off real quick 

EDIT: 60/40 tor watch issued for southwest LA extending into southeast TX

[tiger_deF]

Looking ugly near Selma, hopefully they have warnings up

[Cartier God]

selma population: 20,756

[geddyweather]

Multiple areas of rotation now forming around the current TOG. One area of interest near Quitman MS and another west of Laurel near Soso, MS. 

Cell moving into Selma, AL also looks to be pretty intense. On a very bad path too.

[Cyclone-68]

Forgive my amateurish ob but doesn’t it seem the really high end events start a bit earlier than forecasted? 

[jpeters3]

Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

Forgive my amateurish ob but doesn’t it seem the really high nod events start a bit earlier than forecasted? 

It usually isn't a very good sign, yes...

[cheese007]

Seems like a day where everything starts spinning 

[DanLarsen34]

We've got another PDS watch coming shortly for Eastern AR, Eastern LA, and Western MS.

[SnowenOutThere]

Confirms what we thought two Distinct Debris balls.

[NorthHillsWx]

Man, Selma is about to get hit 

[geddyweather]

Possibly a new tornado forming near Quitman, MS. No warning yet but probably coming soon at this rate. 

[lilj4425]

And a certain forum member said this system would be a bust.  High is not warranted I tell you.

[a5ehren]

Two very distinct rotation couplets in that MS storm. The cell to the west of that one is spinning a broad meso, too.

[Calderon]

Selma cell has a very intense BWER also. It could drop at any moment, if it already hasn't. 

[Calderon]

I would also really watch the cell south of York, AL in Sumter County with it being both by itself and on a perfect trajectory for Birmingham in a couple hours if it maintains. 

[JakkelWx]

 

[the ghost of leroy]

4 minutes ago, a5ehren said:

Two very distinct rotation couplets in that MS storm. The cell to the west of that one is spinning a broad meso, too.

Wonder if the cell to the S will disrupt inflow

[geddyweather]

Just now, JakkelWx said:

 

Going to come dangerously close to Shubuta, MS (pop ~400).

[Santa Clause]

Hopefully Selma made out okay, haven’t seen anything confirmed on the ground.

[VOLtage]

Keeping an eye on the cells near Columbia and Prentiss Mississippi. 

[the ghost of leroy]

Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Hopefully Selma made out okay, haven’t seen anything confirmed on the ground.

Looks awesome on base reflectivity but loose on velocity. 

[yoda]

Real quick update -- New DAY 2 continues with large MOD risk from GA into NC

45% hatched wind introduced in E GA/SC into S NC

[weatherextreme]

James Spann live

 

https://abc3340.com/watch

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Real quick update -- New DAY 2 continues with large MOD risk from GA into NC

45% hatched wind introduced in E GA/SC into S NC

Written by Broyles

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1231 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   CENTRAL AND EASTERN GEORGIA INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH
   CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A regional outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes is possible on
   Thursday from parts of east-central Georgia northeastward across
   South Carolina and North Carolina. Significant tornadoes, wind
   damage and large hail will be possible from morning into afternoon.
   Severe thunderstorms will also be possible from parts of the eastern
   Gulf Coast into the southern and central Appalachians.

   ...North Carolina/South Carolina/Georgia/Virginia/Florida...
   A positively-tilted upper-level low will move into the Tennessee
   Valley on Thursday as a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet moves across the
   Southeast and Carolinas. At the surface, a low will move eastward
   into the central Appalachians. At 12Z, a warm front will be located
   from northern Georgia eastward across northern South Carolina. This
   boundary will move northward across central and eastern North
   Carolina during the morning. To the south of this front, surface
   dewpoints across the warm sector will be in the mid to upper 60s F.
   As surface temperatures warm, a pocket of moderate instability is
   expected to develop to the south of the warm front across eastern
   North Carolina by late morning. Convective development will be aided
   by the low-level jet. Severe thunderstorms associated with large
   hail, wind damage and a tornado threat, is expected during the mid
   morning hours.

   Further to the west, a band of large-scale ascent associated with
   the approaching upper-level system will overspread the central
   Appalachians around midday. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate
   just ahead of this band of ascent around midday and move eastward
   into the Appalachian foothills during the early afternoon. Ahead of
   the storms, the environment will consist of MLCAPE in the 2000 to
   2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 kt and storm relative
   helicities of 300 to 350 m2/s2. This will support intense supercell
   development. Tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be likely
   with the stronger storms. A long-track tornado will be possible
   along or in the vicinity of the warm front. The time of maximum
   threat is forecast to be in the 18Z to 22Z time window. A regional
   outbreak of severe storms, along with several significant tornadoes
   are expected from discrete cells that develop across the warm sector
   from central North Carolina southward across much of South Carolina.

   Further to the southwest into Georgia, a line of strong to severe
   thunderstorms is expected to move into the area form the west during
   the morning. A corridor of moderate instability is forecast to
   develop just ahead of this line by late morning with instability
   continuing to increase through the afternoon. This line of storms
   will have access to a strong low-level jet, extending northeastward
   across south-central and eastern Georgia. the environment should
   have MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg along with 0-6 Km shear of 60 to 70
   kt. This will be favorable for supercell and severe bowing line
   segments. Supercells that form in the line may produce tornadoes,
   wind damage and large hail. A potential for significant tornadoes
   will exist with cells that form at the north end of gaps in the
   line. This band of storms is expected to be accompanied by
   widespread wind damage, moving across eastern Georgia and South
   Carolina during the mid to late afternoon. Wind gusts of greater
   than 65 kt will be possible with the more intense bowing line
   segments. The southern part of the band may extend as far south as
   the Florida Panhandle, where a severe threat will exist in the
   morning and early afternoon.

[Calderon]

CC drop on Selma cell just to east of town now.

[yoda]

 

[mclean02]

Twc tornado confirmed in Selma on tower cam 

[the ghost of leroy]

Selma is probably producing now. Latest scans look way tighter. 

[Mrklem10]

Selma looks serious on the velocity now.... Had some debris in the CC scan too

[jrips27]

Sitting at 64 with moderate rain just east of Birmingham. Hopefully this puts a lid on the ceiling for the Birmingham metro at least for the afternoon window. It’s almost chilly out.