eyewall Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: is TorCon their version of sig tor parameter? Or is it something different? I think it is similar to SPC probs within 25 miles of any given location but for a much bigger area. Maybe within 100 miles? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Ugh, so we can cross “cloudy warm sector” off the list of possible failure modes, and early soundings show a decent EML. Things are sadly falling into place to make today significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 https://twitter.com/AlaStormTracker/status/1372186680678027271 Brett Adair @AlaStormTracker Double cap soundings advecting in....this is the most violent supercell environment evolving for Alabama that I have seen since 2011. Heed ALL warnings today and stay safe. Going live within an hour with a link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said: Ugh, so we can cross “cloudy warm sector” off the list of possible failure modes, and early soundings show a decent EML. Things are sadly falling into place to make today significant. I was just texting someone that the warm sector looks awesome rn. It’s weird to see little to no crapvection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, eyewall said: I think it is similar to SPC probs within 25 miles of any given location but for a much bigger area. Maybe within 100 miles? I believe their standard is 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 1 minute ago, wizard021 said: A high risk remains unwarranted, enh or moderate would be enough. I would have agreed with this until the overnight CAM runs and now this morning's observed soundings; both painting an increasingly ominous picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Personally, I was surprised with the large moderate area for NC/SC. I knew there would be a moderate area, but I was surprised at the northern extent of it. I think this is where experience with CAD comes into play. It will truly be a question of how far north and west the CAD erodes during the day... The moderate area looks to align with your typical ice/rain border in winter weather. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 ^And the clearing allowing substantial surface destabilization. I think 3500-4000 CAPE is not out of the question now for these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 VBV shouldn’t be an issue. Slight VBV above 3km tends to be present on a lot of long track tornado days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Personally, I was surprised with the large moderate area for NC/SC. I knew there would be a moderate area, but I was surprised at the northern extent of it. I think this is where experience with CAD comes into play. It will truly be a question of how far north and west the CAD erodes during the day... The moderate area looks to align with your typical ice/rain border in winter weather. Especially with rain chances throughout the day and no sun. Definitely reminds me of april 19 2019 (although I think that setup was a lot more CAPE dependent) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, wizard021 said: April 27 11 had 01km shear 1000 m2s2, the days storms in Alabama 200 m2s2. Let's tell Adair to stop the hype. The winds are certainly not as backed and low levsl jet during day is not extreme. I’ll go with the pros at SPC over Random Internet Contrarian Guy Who Seeks Attention. The parameters and set up support a very significant and impactful event today. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, TPAwx said: I’ll go with the pros at SPC over Random Internet Contrarian Guy Who Seeks Attention. The parameters and set up support a very significant and impactful event today. Especially when said guy has no skin in the game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 From NWS Birmingham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 @wizard021 You don't need 1000 m2/s2 SRH to get a threat of significant tornadoes. Please stop with all of this nonsense. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Just now, andyhb said: @wizard021 You don't need 1000 m2/s2 SRH to get a threat of significant tornadoes. Please stop with all of this nonsense. April 16th, 2011 was around 200-400 I think. NC had 30 tornadoes that day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 I think the key is that people say *since* 2011. They don't say that it's "like 2011" or "worse than 2011" so I'm more than willing to accept the statement as something other than pure hype. Once again, it can't be overstated how absurd that day in April really was. But 200-300 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, especially with lots of streamwise vorticity, is more than sufficient for strong tornadoes. While I doubt this will be a case of nearly every cell producing an intense-violent tornado simultaneously, like it seemed to be the case on 4/27, I can imagine that at least a few will be more than capable of producing intense tornadoes, even simultaneously, across the open warm-sector. EDIT: ninja'd and with far less words lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, wizard021 said: Clear hype. Remain open to the evidence. If the evidence shows that, then say that . I haven't seen sig tors during the day in Alabams above a 3. 2011 had uncapped 10 to 12 sig tor across great distance in all directions. Clear FUD, remain open to the evidence. Adair said the conditions were the worst he's seen SINCE 2011, so comparing it to 2011 is irrelevant. He also doesn't specify what time of day he's referencing, so look at the conditions for the entire event duration, not just "during the day". Also, take a look at the latest HRR, shows sig tors of 6 at 21z in "Alabams". Everything is there for a significant event today, just because the conditions aren't as ripe as the worst event in a generation doesn't change that. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 It only takes one to potentially make it a terrible day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Just now, wizard021 said: Also note the 300 - 500 mb layer is considerably more moist . High cloud cover is going to be an issue. Again on 4/16/11 in NC we had 30 tornadoes and hardly any sun that day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bamabonners Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 All these hype clowns keep throwing out 2011, 2011, 2011, 2011... The more you use it, the less weight it will carry. Then, people get tired of it or ignore it. Then, it comes across as fear mongering or hype. Where way, it is ridiculous. Just give the facts and keep the hype away... Some people have a genuine fear of weather and these types of reports don't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 1 minute ago, bamabonners said: All these hype clowns keep throwing out 2011, 2011, 2011, 2011... The more you use it, the less weight it will carry. Then, people get tired of it or ignore it. Then, it comes across as fear mongering or hype. Where way, it is ridiculous. Just give the facts and keep the hype away... Some people have a genuine fear of weather and these types of reports don't help. Who's saying this is another 2011? I haven't seen or heard of anyone notable making that connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, wizard021 said: Also note the 300 - 500 mb layer is considerably more moist . High cloud cover is going to be an issue. Lots of cloud breaks and some areas with full sun across MS this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 1 minute ago, ATDoel said: Who's saying this is another 2011? I haven't seen or heard of anyone notable making that connection. Lol, yeah I have not seen any direct comparisons with 2011. But I have seen about 1000000 posts condemning (nonexistent) references to 2011. This is what we call a "straw man." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, ATDoel said: Who's saying this is another 2011? I haven't seen or heard of anyone notable making that connection. No one has, some have said since, but no one has compared it to that directly. Literally nitpicking how this isn’t 4/27/11 is a waste of time, nothing we see again may be like that...it doesn’t mean there will be no strong or damaging tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Looks like tomorrow in eastern NC looks to get wild. https://gyazo.com/9dd164ff286dd168c1f4ac81a43ddf83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, ATDoel said: Who's saying this is another 2011? I haven't seen or heard of anyone notable making that connection. Literally no one is saying it, but these guys are trying to say people are so that when this isn't the biggest outbreak in history they can go "see I told you." No one with half a brain thinks today is another 2011, also no one with half a brain thinks today doesn't have potential to be a big event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Well there's the main event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Can we stop trolling already? Jesus.... Not a single person is saying this is April 27th.. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, IMADreamer said: Literally no one is saying it, but these guys are trying to say people are so that when this isn't the biggest outbreak in history they can go "see I told you." No one with half a brain thinks today is another 2011, also no one with half a brain thinks today doesn't have potential to be a big event. Yeah that's how it seems. It's like walking through an area hit by an EF4 and saying "meh, it's no Joplin, damage was overhyped" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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