olafminesaw Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Wind has shifted to the S instead of SE, should see a steady increase in temp/dewpoints. It's a race between the line of storms and the warm air advection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 For central NC, it looks like the main time to watch is between 3-8PM. HRRR has consistently shown some showers/storms around 4PM, but then fires up a more severe looking cluster of cells between 6-8PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 One thing about whatever line develops in CNC -- it'll be over and done within 30 minutes. Gonna be a mover. Then some snow showers tomorrow? Wild stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Noon update: still firmly stuck in the wedge and 57 degrees with fog/mist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Noon update: still firmly stuck in the wedge and 57 degrees with fog/mist I'm in Southern Wake and already up to 62. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 I’m at 52. It’ll have to warm up quickly, but I’m not expecting much anyway thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 GSP NWS back at it again in their latest discussion As of 1150 AM: Sometimes in these situations, we must wait for the leopard to reveal his spots. That might be happening as of midday as satellite imagery/sfc obs are showing the wedge boundary/warm front moving northward. Meanwhile, radars show a narrow band of showers extending from the western tip of SC down to the east side of metro ATL. The lower Piedmont and Lakelands have broken out ahead of this line, and the little bit of insolation in that region should help the air mass recover across the Upstate and toward metro Charlotte. On this trend, it is reasonable to expect the boundary to make it north of I-85 in the early afternoon. We still wait for the SPC mesoanalysis to respond, but the 12Z model runs have no qualms in bringing a plume of 1500 J/kg of sfc-based CAPE into the Charlotte metro area in the late afternoon. Will this be enough to energize the line of convection as it moves in from the west? Some of the CAMs think so. Bottom line...at this point...in spite of the downgrade in risk this morning...think it best to not give up on this one just yet. The latest guidance theoretically has more than enough buoyancy and shear to support a few severe thunderstorms east of the mtns, with the overall best chance still to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 70/63 at PGV.....gonna be interesting to see how it plays out today.....had some filtered sun a hr ago back to overcast.....sat looks like some more filtered sun possible in a hr or two around peak heating..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 So far I'm unenthused with today's threat. Latest HRRR looks pretty meh and ML CAPE doesn't look all that impressive. Obviously, if things clear up it could change quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Downgraded to Enhanced in southeast NC/northeast SC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Today looks less than impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Haha watch this do the absolute most opposite flip imaginable for the southeast and transition from a severe event to a surprise snow tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 James Spann @spann Some say yesterday’s severe weather outbreak was a “bust”. Just because a tornado didn’t hit a larger city like Birmingham or Tuscaloosa doesn’t mean “bust”. There are real people who live in rural areas, and there is real suffering this morning. NWS surveys will tell the story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Took Greensboro down to slight, and just kept the Triangle in enhanced.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 20 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Today looks less than impressive. That’s a good thing. Don’t want any of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 That line moving through the upstate definitely looks a bit more robust than some of the CAMs were showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: That line moving through the upstate definitely looks a bit more robust than some of the CAMs were showing It's kind of cool that literally every cell in that line has some very broad rotation, though the environment upstream still isn't overly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Just to comment on yesterday for a minute... I would not call it a bust. IMO, that word is thrown around way too often in severe weather events. Perhaps it fell a bit short of the potential that it had, though. I can't find reference to it anymore, but SPC used to issue a high risk when they were expecting at least 20 tornadoes in a geographical area that is the size of Oklahoma without the panhandle. I believe there was also some threshold for the number of F/EF2 tornadoes but can't recall for sure. Very important to remember that not every high risk is going to produce 100 tornadoes or even 50 tornadoes. There are those days that are elite level... I would almost call those extreme risk days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 3 hours ago, Cheeznado said: I chased a really great supercell in Central Alabama yesterday west and SW of Selma. Best SE storm structure I have seen in my 41 years here. Go to https://www.facebook.com/cheeznadophoto I would love to get something like that with drone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 59 and still foggy and drizzling here. Not sure we'll ever get clearing in time for any storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Some breaks and filtered sun appearing here in Raleigh. The main line is still west of I-77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 I'm in southern wake near Fuquay and up to 68 with a soupy dewpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 20 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: 59 and still foggy and drizzling here. Not sure we'll ever get clearing in time for any storms. Sun has broken out here and temps have responded. 67 with filtered sunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Tornado watch just issued until 6pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 HRRR about the time the line is moving through the triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywarndeac Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Already some radar indicated rotation popping up in the line that's currently west of the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Haha watch this do the absolute most opposite flip imaginable for the southeast and transition from a severe event to a surprise snow tomorrow Wutchu talkin' bout Willis? I'll take my liquid in any form today. The grass seed is ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Tornado Warning Tornado Warning SCC021-083-181915- /O.NEW.KGSP.TO.W.0002.210318T1837Z-210318T1915Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 237 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021 The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Spartanburg County in Upstate South Carolina... Northwestern Cherokee County in Upstate South Carolina... * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 236 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Spartanburg, or over USC Upstate, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Cowpens, Mayo and Chesnee around 250 PM EDT. Cowpens National Battlefield around 300 PM EDT. Gaffney around 310 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this dangerous thunderstorm include Thicketty. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the specific location where it occurred. && LAT...LON 3502 8210 3518 8180 3517 8155 3499 8172 3489 8208 TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 239DEG 32KT 3499 8197 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ LANE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 This skinny little line moving through the upstate means business 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Just to comment on yesterday for a minute... I would not call it a bust. IMO, that word is thrown around way too often in severe weather events. Perhaps it fell a bit short of the potential that it had, though. I can't find reference to it anymore, but SPC used to issue a high risk when they were expecting at least 20 tornadoes in a geographical area that is the size of Oklahoma without the panhandle. I believe there was also some threshold for the number of F/EF2 tornadoes but can't recall for sure. Very important to remember that not every high risk is going to produce 100 tornadoes or even 50 tornadoes. There are those days that are elite level... I would almost call those extreme risk days. Didn't we exceed these thresholds last Easter? Edit: Should the SPC create a 6th/"Extreme Risk" level for those rare days? I would argue that the 45% contour signifies this. We had this 27 April 2011 & it verified. But we also had it yesterday & it didn't. Edit 2: I also think that the NHC should consider adding a Category 6 for hurricanes 185 or higher. But they haven't done so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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