March 17-18 Severe Weather Event

[brianc33710]

16 hours ago, zinski1990 said:

Man this busted so bad. I swear the SPC has had a bad streak since like 2014 with high risks

TWC is looking for words right now too. Easter 2020 should've been a high risk though.

Edit.....we had injuries & damage. A Moderate risk was appropriate for this outbreak though. 

[Santa Clause]

Tonight’s threat is cooked mainly, even cutting the western periphery of tornado watch down.

[zinski1990]

Just now, brianc33710 said:

TWC is looking for words right now too. Easter 2020 should've been a high risk though.

Yep. It seems now that enhanced risk days are the new high. Idk. Just remember before the spc added the marginal and enhanced it's been like this

[MattPetrulli]

25 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Would think the idea of the SPC upgrading any part of the Carolinas to a high risk tomorrow, especially in light of what transpired today, would be a very poor decision.

Imo, I think SPC re-evaluates the moderate risk whether to keep it for tornadoes or not. There isn't much of a strong signal for discrete cells producing tornadoes on any CAM model besides a little bit on HREF. I'd be pretty surprised to see a 15% hatched stay given tonight's guidance. 

 

4 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Man this busted so bad. I swear the SPC has had a bad streak since like 2014 with high risks

Definitely wasn't a bust, a regional tornado outbreak with multiple siggys definitely did occur in AL. However, I don't mean to monday morning QB, I thought so at the time of and think so now, the 45% was too much, 30% woulda done fine.  Either way, definitely wasn't a "bust". 

[ATDoel]

6 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Man this busted so bad. I swear the SPC has had a bad streak since like 2014 with high risks

nah, we (humans) just don't have the ability to forecast these types of events very accurately.  Too many factors our models don't have the ability to predict.

[brianc33710]

Just now, MattPetrulli said:

Imo, I think SPC re-evaluates the moderate risk whether to keep it for tornadoes or not. There isn't much of a strong signal for discrete cells producing tornadoes on any CAM model besides a little bit on HREF. I'd be pretty surprised to see a 15% hatched stay given tonight's guidance. 

 

Definitely wasn't a bust, a regional tornado outbreak with multiple siggys definitely did occur in AL. However, I don't mean to monday morning QB, I thought so at the time of and think so now, the 45% was too much, 30% woulda done fine.  Either way, definitely wasn't a "bust". 

24 April 2010 came back from the dead though

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, zinski1990 said:

Yep. It seems now that enhanced risk days are the new high. Idk. Just remember before the spc added the marginal and enhanced it's been like this

Only need 4 levels to begin with. And the descriptions don't make since. Slight and marginal are the same thing, and something that is enhanced is greater than something that is moderate. 

[zinski1990]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Only need 4 levels to begin with. And the descriptions don't make since. Slight and marginal are the same thing, and something that is enhanced is greater than something that is moderate. 

Exactly. Wasnt a fan when the SPC introduced the 5 level system 

[brianc33710]

14 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

TWC is looking for words right now too. Easter 2020 should've been a high risk though.

If anything, the Flash Flood threat from this system is probably larger than they had anticipated though. I won't say a full bust. I know that troll is all over himself right now though. He went to another site to troll after getting booted here.

[lilj4425]

23 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Man this busted so bad. I swear the SPC has had a bad streak since like 2014 with high risks

At least FEMA will be happy. Reminds me of the winter systems around here. Instead of getting of getting six inches of snow, we get Brick Tamland.  

[Brick Tamland]

I mean there were still over 20 tornadoes reported today. Doesn't sound like most of them did much damage, though. Not sure if that meets the criteria for a high risk and PDS watch. I don't think tomorrow will meet the hype the local mets here are giving it. WRAL has been hyping the heck out of tomorrow's threat since Monday.

[Santa Clause]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

I mean there were still over 20 tornadoes reported today. Doesn't sound like most of them did much damage, though. Not sure if that meets the criteria for a high risk and PDS watch, though. I don't think tomorrow will meet the hype the local mets here are giving it. WRAL has been hyping the heck out of tomorrow's threat since Monday.

Tomorrow is definitely trending away from any big tornado day.

[brianc33710]

This extreme is better than what happened in Nashville last March. Also the January Fultondale, AL EF-3 was from a marginal to maybe slight risk day. I would rather over than under prepare. Edit Parts of AL have seen some significant damage today though.

[NorthHillsWx]

I will wait to see what the morning soundings/radar shows but models and especially CAMs have trended for the wedge to hang on (shocker) and much less elevated convection from roughly the Sandhills northward. Looks like more of a South Carolina/down east event to me. Doesn’t feel like severe weather is on our doorstep either, chilly, foggy, and northeast wind. We’ll see what the morning brings. Also- the afternoon  RAH write up outlining the limiting factors was pretty awesome. Not saying we won’t see severe weather but usually here to get a higher end event you need very few limiting factors to be present, and tomorrow has plenty.

As for the high risk event busting, it absolutely busted. Overall there was plenty of severe weather and plenty of tornadoes but almost all were outside of the area marked as high risk. To me, that’s a bust. 

[PackGrad05]

As for central NC, RAH said earlier in their discussion they felt like the focus of the severe weather would be along US-1 (30 miles either side) due to location of the front and dynamics associated with it.  They actually mentioned this location would be the worst of it potentially.  This is something models would have a hard time showing in their output.  
With that said, they also mentioned several caveats that could decrease the activity.  I hope all of them come true.

[jrips27]

Hail threat really busted today as well. Spent 45 minutes getting squeezing three cars into a two car garage here just east of Birmingham for nothing lol. BMX was saying tennis balls. 
 

I don’t think I saw any reports of anything bigger than quarter sized? 

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I will wait to see what the morning soundings/radar shows but models and especially CAMs have trended for the wedge to hang on (shocker) and much less elevated convection from roughly the Sandhills northward. Looks like more of a South Carolina/down east event to me. Doesn’t feel like severe weather is on our doorstep either, chilly, foggy, and northeast wind. We’ll see what the morning brings. Also- the afternoon  RAH write up outlining the limiting factors was pretty awesome. Not saying we won’t see severe weather but usually here to get a higher end event you need very few limiting factors to be present, and tomorrow has plenty.

As for the high risk event busting, it absolutely busted. Overall there was plenty of severe weather and plenty of tornadoes but almost all were outside of the area marked as high risk. To me, that’s a bust. 

 

If it's cloudy and rainy tomorrow morning the most we will see around here is very isolated storms, and probably to our south and east like they all were last year. 

[MattPetrulli]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I will wait to see what the morning soundings/radar shows but models and especially CAMs have trended for the wedge to hang on (shocker) and much less elevated convection from roughly the Sandhills northward. Looks like more of a South Carolina/down east event to me. Doesn’t feel like severe weather is on our doorstep either, chilly, foggy, and northeast wind. We’ll see what the morning brings. Also- the afternoon  RAH write up outlining the limiting factors was pretty awesome. Not saying we won’t see severe weather but usually here to get a higher end event you need very few limiting factors to be present, and tomorrow has plenty.

As for the high risk event busting, it absolutely busted. Overall there was plenty of severe weather and plenty of tornadoes but almost all were outside of the area marked as high risk. To me, that’s a bust. 

I really don't get how a regional tornado outbreak is a bust lol

[PackGrad05]

Here is the specific wording from RAH this afternoon.  They agree the wedge may be stubborn, but also believe the boundary will be the focus.  
 

Quote

Initially, that cold air damming regime of
widespread low overcast, light rain and drizzle, and (dense) fog,
will retard the nwwd retreat of the wedge front into cntl NC during
the late morning to early afternoon hours Thu and mitigate the
severe risk to its north. That boundary will also likely prove to be
the locus of (SPC Moderate Risk) of severe, where frontal forcing
will most likely overcome the warm layer/capping inversion

 

[brianc33710]

1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

I really don't get how a regional tornado outbreak is a bust lol

I'll say underperformed, probably bust is a bit too far for those who got injured & have damaged homes. 

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I really don't get how a regional tornado outbreak is a bust lol

It didn't happen in the high risk area, though. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, MattPetrulli said:

I really don't get how a regional tornado outbreak is a bust lol

Overall I wouldn’t say it’s a bust in terms of an event, but the area marked as Level 5 (ie where we were expecting a lot of tornadoes and severe weather) ended up being too far west. For the high risk area, yes it in my opinion was a bust. As an event overall, I’m sure there were 20+ tornadoes and plenty of wind damage so I wouldn’t label it a bust as an overall event. 

[cheese007]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

As for the high risk event busting, it absolutely busted. Overall there was plenty of severe weather and plenty of tornadoes but almost all were outside of the area marked as high risk. To me, that’s a bust. 

What is it with the past 7 years and the primary modes of severe weather occurring outside the high risk area? Is there something seriously wrong with our understanding of tornadogenesis, or is it just small n and "bad" luck?

[PackGrad05]

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, cheese007 said:

What is it with the past 7 years and the primary modes of severe weather occurring outside the high risk area? Is there something seriously wrong with our understanding of tornadogenesis, or is it just small n and "bad" luck?

 

Personally, I don't think the models can keep up with how the climate has changed. 

[DanLarsen34]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Yikes. 

[brianc33710]

5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

It didn't happen in the high risk area, though. 

Most of the AL damage did, although along the south & east edges.

[janetjanet998]

5 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

What is it with the past 7 years and the primary modes of severe weather occurring outside the high risk area? Is there something seriously wrong with our understanding of tornadogenesis, or is it just small n and "bad" luck?

Data overload

I liked the old days better (ie 1990s) .broad brush of general , slight. moderate.  or high 

not trying to narrow it down into small corridors using silly percentages

 

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Thanks for the graphic pack, I stand corrected on my “most tornadoes occurred outside the high risk area statement.” However, it was definitely along the extreme southern and eastern edges. The vast majority of the area, the absolute highest level they can give for an outbreak, saw little to no severe weather. Definitely gives the impression of a bust 

[Quincy]

6 minutes ago, jrips27 said:

Hail threat really busted today as well. Spent 45 minutes getting squeezing three cars into a two car garage here just east of Birmingham for nothing lol. BMX was saying tennis balls. 
 

I don’t think I saw any reports of anything bigger than quarter sized? 

I feel like the large/significant hail threat with these events in the Southeast often end up underperforming. You just don’t get the steep lapse rates aloft very often in this area that you do across the Plains. Plus the thermodynamic profiles are moist with higher precipitable water values than you’d ideally see for significant hail soundings. 

3/19/18 on the other hand... (very different type of setup)