DanLarsen34 Posted March 18, 2021 Author Share Posted March 18, 2021 You know how many are saying the threat for violent tornadoes appears to be tempered? Well, I think we’re about to have a long-track, violent tornado with the lone discrete cell southeast of Billingsley. Substantial velocity couplet ramping up and it’s got room to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Looking less and less likely we see any long trackers tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Looking less and less likely we see any long trackers tonight. Maybe the bullet will be dodged after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 20 hours ago, David Reimer said: [sarcasm]Since when has SPC 'played it smart' over the last few years? [/sarcasm] I do agree with you though. Seems like most of the CAMs are showing a few ways the event could be limited (in the scope of a full-on outbreak). If anything, the last few HRRR runs seem to start the show in Central Alabama by 20Z with discrete storms in a loaded-gun environment. We'll have to see how the late night storms behave (whether its linear garbage or linear mischief). Perhaps I wasn't being sarcastic after all. One of those failure modes came to fruition this evening. There were certainly several tornadoes this afternoon in portions of Mississippi and Alabama. A few of them were significant (EF2+). Was today a 'high risk caliper event'? I'm leaning towards no. I don't fault the 06Z forecaster as their small high risk was placed alright. The 45% tornado late this morning and the continuation of the high risk at 01Z? You've got to be freaking kidding me. There's a rain shield with a few lightning strikes blasting across that 01Z high risk. There aren't even any severe storms in the rain shield! I'm afraid today will add a 'crying wolf' syndrome to some residents in those regions. They sure haven't forgotten April 27, 2011 - but we're coming up on the ten year anniversary. Today's tornado probabilities were identical to those on April 27, 2011. I don't expect every high risk to be a generational outbreak, but I sure do expect more than what we got today. One long-track tornado does not verify a 'high risk'. One EF2+ tornado does not verify a high risk (although I bet we do see at least two from this afternoon's activity). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Is billingsley storm on the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 1 minute ago, David Reimer said: Perhaps I wasn't being sarcastic after all. One of those failure modes came to fruition this evening. There were certainly several tornadoes this afternoon in portions of Mississippi and Alabama. A few of them were significant (EF2+). Was today a 'high risk caliper event'? I'm leaning towards no. I don't fault the 06Z forecaster as their small high risk was placed alright. The 45% tornado late this morning and the continuation of the high risk at 01Z? You've got to be freaking kidding me. There's a rain shield with a few lightning strikes blasting across that 01Z high risk. There aren't even any severe storms in the rain shield! I'm afraid today will add a 'crying wolf' syndrome to some residents in those regions. They sure haven't forgotten April 27, 2011 - but we're coming up on the ten year anniversary. Today's tornado probabilities were identical to those on April 27, 2011. I don't expect every high risk to be a generational outbreak, but I sure do expect more than what we got today. One long-track tornado does not verify a 'high risk'. One EF2+ tornado does not verify a high risk (although I bet we do see at least two from this afternoon's activity). Exactly! Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: Is billingsley storm on the ground? Nope. BMX cancelled the tornado warning. Back down to ZERO TOR warnings in a high risk for tornadoes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Around Birmingham, it just never felt like things destabilized that much. We never got any sunshine and the temp never got to 70. That afternoon rain and I think the overall clutter of everything really limited this thing from taking off. Still a ways to go so curious to see if things take off again soon. Is it just me or is the main show moving ahead of schedule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Liking the overall trends of weakening overall, we don’t need a night time tornado event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 latest HRRR and 3K NAM not looking too bad for central NC either. Primarily one main line of broken cells around 4-5PM. Just wondering if they aren't handling it properly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: latest HRRR and 3K NAM not looking too bad for central NC either. Primarily one main line of broken cells around 4-5PM. Just wondering if they aren't handling it properly? Certainly not seeing anything to justify an upgrade but also think it’s prudent to keep moderate for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, jrips27 said: it just me or is the main show moving ahead of schedule? MCS pushing things along 18z NAM NEST still had the line back in central MS at 02z and 18z HRR to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 15 minutes ago, David Reimer said: Perhaps I wasn't being sarcastic after all. One of those failure modes came to fruition this evening. There were certainly several tornadoes this afternoon in portions of Mississippi and Alabama. A few of them were significant (EF2+). Was today a 'high risk caliper event'? I'm leaning towards no. I don't fault the 06Z forecaster as their small high risk was placed alright. The 45% tornado late this morning and the continuation of the high risk at 01Z? You've got to be freaking kidding me. There's a rain shield with a few lightning strikes blasting across that 01Z high risk. There aren't even any severe storms in the rain shield! I'm afraid today will add a 'crying wolf' syndrome to some residents in those regions. They sure haven't forgotten April 27, 2011 - but we're coming up on the ten year anniversary. Today's tornado probabilities were identical to those on April 27, 2011. I don't expect every high risk to be a generational outbreak, but I sure do expect more than what we got today. One long-track tornado does not verify a 'high risk'. One EF2+ tornado does not verify a high risk (although I bet we do see at least two from this afternoon's activity). There was definitely a lot of tornado potential today that was (fortunately) not realized. Definitely there were a few strong tornadoes, but the ceiling was a lot higher. If today counts as a bust, then it reminds me a little bit (but for different reasons) of May 20, 2019, which also had a 45% hatched tornado risk, but outside of one or two supercells, was a bust. Tornado season is only just starting. I’m still concerned about the potential for one (or more) significant tornado outbreaks later this spring. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, jrips27 said: Around Birmingham, it just never felt like things destabilized that much. We never got any sunshine and the temp never got to 70. That afternoon rain and I think the overall clutter of everything really limited this thing from taking off. Still a ways to go so curious to see if things take off again soon. Is it just me or is the main show moving ahead of schedule? That's what usually happens around here, too, and what keeps us from having a lot of severe storms and tornados instead of maybe one or two very isolated ones. An outbreak is very rare, and the worst case scenario usually doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, jrips27 said: Around Birmingham, it just never felt like things destabilized that much. We never got any sunshine and the temp never got to 70. That afternoon rain and I think the overall clutter of everything really limited this thing from taking off. Still a ways to go so curious to see if things take off again soon. Is it just me or is the main show moving ahead of schedule? Spann said the line is coming though faster than planned. My fear is that we will get walloped in a couple of weeks when not expecting it to make up for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Would think the idea of the SPC upgrading any part of the Carolinas to a high risk tomorrow, especially in light of what transpired today, would be a very poor decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 I always find the worst tornadoes arrive when you least expect it. Hopefully tonight stays relatively calm. Nothing worse than some wedge tornado ravaging a city/town in the middle of the night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Just now, brianc33710 said: Spann said the line is coming though faster than planned. My fear is that we will get walloped in a couple of weeks when not expecting it to make up for this. Yeah it’s half way through Alabama already. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: latest HRRR and 3K NAM not looking too bad for central NC either. Primarily one main line of broken cells around 4-5PM. Just wondering if they aren't handling it properly? We usually bust low with severe weather like we do with snow around here. The times we have a true outbreak and it meets the severe criteria we're under is rare. Most of the time it is very isolated stuff versus widespread storms and tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I always find the worst tornadoes arrive when you least expect it. Hopefully tonight stays relatively calm. Nothing worse than some wedge tornado ravaging a city/town in the middle of the night. I've had more severe storms the last decade when I'm not under a watch versus when I am. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 So when was the last SPC high risk day that actually panned out as predicted? 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 1 minute ago, TheSuckZone said: An EF-3 just missed our town 2 years ago when we were in GEN TSTORM area and not even in the 2% TOR so I relate to this well The Nashville tornadoes werent expected either last March either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 HRRR tries to redevelop stuff just behind the current line in a couple of hours..not sure how much juice will be left for true surface based stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I've had more severe storms the last decade when I'm not under a watch versus when I am. Last PDS watch I was under that I can recall didn't even spawn a thunderstorm. Last major severe event here occured during a slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: HRRR tries to redevelop stuff just behind the current line in a couple of hours...not sure how much juice will be left for true surface based stuff yeah I see that....I wonder how realistic it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted March 18, 2021 Author Share Posted March 18, 2021 To critique myself here: really thought that discrete cell we had 45 minutes ago was going take off, but not even ten minutes after I commented on it, it seemed to run into more stable air and essentially dissipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: HRRR tries to redevelop stuff just behind the current line in a couple of hours..not sure how much juice will be left for true surface based stuff BMX is cancelling western counties from the Tornado Watch so doesn’t seem like they are buying that. Seems pretty far-fetched. Can’t imagine there being much juice left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Man this busted so bad. I swear the SPC has had a bad streak since like 2014 with high risks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 Just now, ATDoel said: yeah I see that....I wonder how realistic it is. you can see the front on the JAN radar just west of jackson but Jackson only 68/64 The MCS ate away most of the instability that the front was supposed to use for the original "2am' event The cells over central AL are running into stable air and the storms over SW AL seem to be in a line now which is mostly outflow dominated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 18, 2021 Share Posted March 18, 2021 There are no active Tornado Or Severe thunderstorm warnings at this time _0230z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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