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March 17-18 Severe Weather Event


DanLarsen34
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2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

Lots of storms over SE MS now with non-warned weaker couplets

 

the key word is LOTS...as in maybe too many for this to get really out of hand if storms have spacing issues

 

time will tell

For the time being, it looks like the perfect spacing to maximize the number of individual cells without non stop storm interference. We will see how that plays out though. 

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While things have been fairly active early, its worth noting that area VADs are not particularly impressive attm.

KDGX: 123 m2/s2 0-1km SRH

KMOB: 122 m2/s2 0-1km SRH

KLIX: 174 m2/s2 0-1km SRH

KGWX: 157 m2/s2 0-1km SRH

Only KMXX and KBMX along/near the warm front are particularly impressive right now with both exhibiting 300-400 m2/s2 0-1km SRH.

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Just now, jojo762 said:

While things have been fairly active early, its worth noting that area VADs are not particularly impressive attm.

KDGX: 123 m2/s2 0-1km SRH

KMOB: 122 m2/s2 0-1km SRH

KLIX: 174 m2/s2 0-1km SRH

KGWX: 157 m2/s2 0-1km SRH

Only KMXX and KBMX along/near the warm front are particularly impressive right now with both exhibiting 300-400 m2/s2 0-1km SRH.

True... hopefully the increase in the LLJ later this evening into overnight doesn't make the situation even worse

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1 minute ago, Upper Level LOL said:

Exhibit A in why chasing in Dixie is so hard 

That is some pretty sweet motion AGL though... Likewise, you really cannot get much worse chase terrain than parts of Mississippi and Alabama have.

 

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28 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

So far is this busting above, below, or right around what was forecast? I have a great deal of family in GA anxiously watching these developments and any insight would be very helpful

Worse than we thought so far.  Outbreak wasn't supposed to start until 1 PM and we've already had several confirmed touch downs.

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12 minutes ago, bamabonners said:

Will the birmingham storms cool the air enough to keep these severe storms from northern part of the state? 

That will reduce the threat for awhile this afternoon across northern AL, but unless storms keep regenerating to the south (which is possible), the warm front will probably make it into northern AL by late afternoon or evening, with a corresponding increase in the threat. 

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don't forget this area

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0118 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2021  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND  
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 171818Z - 171915Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...AN ARCING LINE OF SUPERCELLS/LINE SEGMENTS IS LIKELY FROM  
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.  
  
DISCUSSION...THE MORNING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD HAS  
MOVED OUT OF WESTERN ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH HAS ALLOWED  
SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NEAR THE SURFACE  
LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE 18Z KLZK RAOB HAD A  
STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER, BUT MODIFYING THIS SOUNDING FOR LOW 70S  
TEMPERATURES AND LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT IN  
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA YIELDS AROUND 500 TO 750  
J/KG MLCAPE AND A NEARLY UNCAPPED PROFILE. EARLY CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUGGESTS THIS REMAINING INHIBITION  
HAS LIKELY ERODED AS COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVERHEAD.  
THEREFORE, SEVERAL LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE HOUR. OVERALL, WEAK INSTABILITY WILL  
BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT,  
BUT EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 150 TO 200 M2/S2 PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND  
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW  
MAY LEAD TO A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO/LANDSPOUT THREAT. IN ADDITION  
TO THE TORNADO THREAT, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND  
LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND COOL TEMPERATURES  
ALOFT. 
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