Bob's Burgers Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Some of the soundings in North Carolina for Thursday look better than tomorrow's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 20 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said: Some of the soundings in North Carolina for Thursday look better than tomorrow's event. What do you mean by better? Better for creating severe weather or better as in less severe weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Just now, PackGrad05 said: What do you mean by better? Better for creating severe weather or better as in less severe weather? Better for severe weather, should have clarified that. The LLJ looks a good bit stronger with cleaner hodographs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Not sure what I’m missing, but soundings tomorrow night look pretty darn impressive for severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Not sure what I’m missing, but soundings tomorrow night look pretty darn impressive for severe weather. I think the main question is storm mode. CAMS seem to be trending toward a classic southeastern US "grunge fest" with widespread nonsupercellular convection in the warm sector, and a QLCS along the front. This could therefore pan out like 5-20-19 in the plains, with an impressive environment but a lack of tornadic supercells. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 I would argue that, by that morning 27 April 2011, the SPC had upgraded parts of the "High Risk" areas to an "Exceptionally High Risk," adding in the 45% contour gave that event a 6/5. So, remove 27 Apr 11 Superoutbreak from the "Regular" High Risk days and then compare the rest of the High Risk events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: What do you mean by better? Better for creating severe weather or better as in less severe weather? I wondered the same thing. Better isn’t better if you’re filing an homeowner’s insurance claim. I guess it’s “better” for the voyeurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eolian Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: I wondered the same thing. Better isn’t better if you’re filing an homeowner’s insurance claim. I guess it’s “better” for the voyeurs. Pretty obvious. Referencing “better” for storm chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Thinking they upgrade to high risk on Day 1,, all the ingredients are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Thinking they upgrade to high risk on Day 1,, all the ingredients are there. Strongly worded AFD from BMX, mentions violent tornadoes. To me this indicates they are going to be coordinating with the SPC and thinking a High Risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Thinking they upgrade to high risk on Day 1,, all the ingredients are there. The day 2 disco from earlier today mentioned that if models remained consistent they'd pull a 06z Day 1 high risk. I think they get there, just wonder where they draw the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Just now, Upper Level LOL said: The day 2 disco from earlier today mentioned that if models remained consistent they'd pull a 06z Day 1 high risk. I think they get there, just wonder where they draw the bullseye. Triangulate from Jackson up to Memphis, extending east towards B'ham? Maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Hi resolution NAM has ground scraping LCLs for parts of Mississippi and Alabama tomorrow evening, should make for some impressive tornadoes if the other ingredients come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said: Triangulate from Jackson up to Memphis, extending east towards B'ham? Maybe? Bingo. Exactly where I was guessing it’d be put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 I posted for this for my family in W TN Anyone living south of Tupelo MS to just north of Montgomery Al could see EF4-F5 size tornadoes. The last few years I have personally called this area the nation's DTT---- "Deadly Tornadic Triangle" because so many EF3-5 tornadoes have occurred in this specific triangular location in the late winter and early spring period, especially in the last 25+ years. These large wedge shaped tornadoes usually form in rapidly converging renegade supercells 50-150 miles out ahead of the actual cold front traveling in a SW to NE direction and being capable of having actual funnels of one and half miles wide and remaining on the ground for long periods of time. They usually spin up in the late afternoon to a few hours after sunset. I would also not be at all surprised to see the NWS actually issue the rare "Tornado Emergencies" which means a destructive EF-2 or greater tornado is actually on the ground. Remember where you heard this first --from me. No one in the media will tell you this because they are not true meteorologists. The shear factors are going to be unbelievable in places, Nobody else is saying this right now. Also, you may hear the media mention about debris balls, which occur in these types of wedge tornadoes and can be easily seen on the radar as a dark purple or red color. See this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_emergency#:~:text=Although%20it%20is%20not%20a,a%20large%2C%20strong%20to%20violent Even though the Memphis metro area will most likely not be placed in this high risk area tomorrow, I would not rule out any threat of a major tornado in the mid south region. Jackson Tn seems to be the magnet for this upcoming type of storm formation for tornado development in the last 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Yazoo city messy storm mode likely. High risk unlikely. 1 or 2 qlcs embedded sup likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 22 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Thinking they upgrade to high risk on Day 1,, all the ingredients are there. No. Messy storm mode with storms struggling . By dark 1 or 2 will get sustained and deliver bad results though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Rule of thumb .. closed upper lows that close in the west and then move east are never historic outbreaks . There is always some issue that prevents it . Systems that eject and then close off near the wark sector result in outbreaks. Also broad troughs with no closed lows are preferred even more . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 WRAL just said they have noticed a trend with “storm energy” (probably CAPE) being higher east of Raleigh. Said they are watching to see if the level 3 area is trimmed back tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Just now, wizard021 said: Rule of thumb .. closed upper lows that close in the west and then move east are never historic outbreaks . There is always some issue that prevents it . Systems that eject and then close off near the wark sector result in outbreaks. Also broad troughs with no closed lows are preferred even more . However a localized notable event can occur . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 24 minutes ago, Albedoman said: I posted for this for my family in W TN Anyone living south of Tupelo MS to just north of Montgomery Al could see EF4-F5 size tornadoes. The last few years I have personally called this area the nation's DTT---- "Deadly Tornadic Triangle" because so many EF3-5 tornadoes have occurred in this specific triangular location in the late winter and early spring period, especially in the last 25+ years. These large wedge shaped tornadoes usually form in rapidly converging renegade supercells 50-150 miles out ahead of the actual cold front traveling in a SW to NE direction and being capable of having actual funnels of one and half miles wide and remaining on the ground for long periods of time. They usually spin up in the late afternoon to a few hours after sunset. I would also not be at all surprised to see the NWS actually issue the rare "Tornado Emergencies" which means a destructive EF-2 or greater tornado is actually on the ground. Remember where you heard this first --from me. No one in the media will tell you this because they are not true meteorologists. The shear factors are going to be unbelievable in places, Nobody else is saying this right now. Also, you may hear the media mention about debris balls, which occur in these types of wedge tornadoes and can be easily seen on the radar as a dark purple or red color. See this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_emergency#:~:text=Although%20it%20is%20not%20a,a%20large%2C%20strong%20to%20violent Even though the Memphis metro area will most likely not be placed in this high risk area tomorrow, I would not rule out any threat of a major tornado in the mid south region. Jackson Tn seems to be the magnet for this upcoming type of storm formation for tornado development in the last 20 years. This is needlessly scaremongering and doesn't fit the parameters we see. We're going to see a lot of low-end tornadoes since the warm sector has essentially no cap. This will prevent bigger storms from firing. The threat of tomorrow aren't EF4-EF5s, but a firehose of EF2's and EF3's. I hope your reputation among your friends and family doesn't suffer from crying wolf about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 It's probably a bit early for definitive statements one way or the other. The severe parameters are fairly stout and storm mode (as well as other mesoscale features) likely won't be resolved till tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 20 minutes ago, wizard021 said: However a localized notable event can occur . only takes one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 37 minutes ago, wizard021 said: No. Messy storm mode with storms struggling . By dark 1 or 2 will get sustained and deliver bad results though. Doesn’t matter how messy the mode is when the LCLs are scraping the ground and sheer is high, especially once the LLJ kicks in after dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said: This is needlessly scaremongering and doesn't fit the parameters we see. We're going to see a lot of low-end tornadoes since the warm sector has essentially no cap. This will prevent bigger storms from firing. The threat of tomorrow aren't EF4-EF5s, but a firehose of EF2's and EF3's. I hope your reputation among your friends and family doesn't suffer from crying wolf about this. I don’t know how many EF3 tornadoes in a metro area you have worked but several EF 3 tornadoes is not crying wolf. Very significant threat with nighttime tornadoes irregardless of ultimate ratings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, OKTWISTER said: I don’t know how many EF3 tornadoes in a metro area you have worked but several EF 3 tornadoes is not crying wolf. Very significant threat with nighttime tornadoes irregardless of ultimate ratings. Oh I agree Wednesday is a super serious threat. I was just more highlighting that Albedoman’s jeremiad about EF4-EF5s this far out is kinda irresponsible (and his definition of tornado emergencies is incomplete). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 *Sees the discussion in this thread* *Rethinks life choices to visit it* 8 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern stream Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said: Oh I agree Wednesday is a super serious threat. I was just more highlighting that Albedoman’s jeremiad about EF4-EF5s this far out is kinda irresponsible (and his definition of tornado emergencies is incomplete). Agree! I would honestly say throwing out predicted numbers and intensities is altogether, irresponsible. Just the fact that alot of this event will occur in the evening/overnight makes it a very dangerous situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 Remember when this site had 50+ pages of quality discussion for an upcoming severe event and not 3 pages of trash? Pepperidge Farm remembers. 3 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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