Hoosier Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Looks like a wintry system worthy of discussion, with all precip types possible. As mentioned in the other thread, I would think any freezing rain threat would be most significant on elevated objects given the warm spell and lack of much cold air at the surface ahead of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 12, 2021 Author Share Posted March 12, 2021 You can tell we're getting out of winter. Almost an hour in and nobody replied lol Winds look decent, so conditions could look pretty respectable for a while where precip rates are heavier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Most models show at least low-end accumulating snow here. A couple days ago the heavy band was centered through Cedar Rapids, but it has shifted n/nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Stat padding season has arrived. Bring em on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Severe weather looks possible also with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Severe weather looks possible also with this storm Not really in this sun-forum.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 looks like a pretty potent fronto band that will weaken with time as it heads eastward. Models anywhere between 1-5 inches here. Initial guess is on the low end of that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 It's the NW burbs time. Will outperform southern sections by at least .5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 this is your moment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 This snow event is trending away from Cedar Rapids. It's looking like northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. I'll probably get rain and mix with an inch or two of sloppy snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2021 Author Share Posted March 13, 2021 Currently looking like a mixy mess around here, perhaps favoring sleet more but we'll see. I don't agree with the LOT afd which discounted freezing rain in the cwa. It certainly looks possible in the morning hours (favoring southern cwa) and could even linger past noon imo as the low level cold layer should be slow to modify given easterly flow and ongoing precip. The recent warmth and March sun angle are complicating factors as far as getting a heightened travel impact from the freezing rain. One thing to watch would be anyplace that can lay down a layer of sleet before switching to liquid as that could perhaps increase the road impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 30 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Currently looking like a mixy mess around here, perhaps favoring sleet more but we'll see. I don't agree with the LOT afd which discounted freezing rain in the cwa. It certainly looks possible in the morning hours (favoring southern cwa) and could even linger past noon imo as the low level cold layer should be slow to modify given easterly flow and ongoing precip. The recent warmth and March sun angle are complicating factors as far as getting a heightened travel impact from the freezing rain. One thing to watch would be anyplace that can lay down a layer of sleet before switching to liquid as that could perhaps increase the road impacts. I'd just about totally discount the FZRA threat, and I'm not big on the sleet potential either. Probably will be a mostly snow or rain event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Looks like a messy mix for this area. By the time it gets ready to change to mostly snow the event will likely be pretty much done. Kind of a meh event really for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2021 Author Share Posted March 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: I'd just about totally discount the FZRA threat, and I'm not big on the sleet potential either. Probably will be a mostly snow or rain event. Completely disagree, especially near/south of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Completely disagree, especially near/south of I-80. With colder air not filtering in until right before things are getting going, there isn’t going to be sufficient time for the already mild surfaces/ground to catch up. Add in that’s it’s noting going to get colder than the upper 20’s most likely either. Maybeee elevated surfaces towards the end, but that’s a stretch depending on how long precip actually lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2021 Author Share Posted March 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: With colder air not filtering in until right before things are getting going, there isn’t going to be sufficient time for the already mild surfaces/ground to catch up. Add in that’s it’s noting going to get colder than the upper 20’s most likely either. Maybeee elevated surfaces towards the end, but that’s a stretch depending on how long precip actually lasts. Trees, power lines, metal signs, etc should cool off pretty quickly in tandem with air temps imo. I would expect some glazing on those. Although it's mild in the lead-in, we are not torching as much as earlier this week. The thing that is more of a concern to me as far as getting efficient accretion is heavier precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2021 Author Share Posted March 13, 2021 I will take the under on this though, by far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 The latest HRRR would be the best solution for my area. Other models have shifted the snow nw. The afternoon NAMs removed nearly all snow from Cedar Rapids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2021 Author Share Posted March 14, 2021 If you bet against warm air aloft, you might win 10% of the time. In no way, shape or form do I buy the HRRR around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2021 Author Share Posted March 14, 2021 Let's play find the leading edge of the precip shield. Ooh I know, I know *raises hand* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If you bet against warm air aloft, you might win 10% of the time. In no way, shape or form do I buy the HRRR around here. Every event this winter that had mixing to start had disappointing results for snowfall for this area, so I'm gonna bet against seeing much snow and play the pessimistic role for this one lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 The NAM is much different than the HRRR.... bupkis for me or cyclone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 14, 2021 Author Share Posted March 14, 2021 Monday might feel a little nasty after recent highs near 70. We were just in deep winter last month though, so perhaps the body hasn't become totally unprogrammed from winter cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 3 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: The NAM is much different than the HRRR.... bupkis for me or cyclone. This one and the next event around the 18th are throw-away events. Minor stat padding at best for snowfall. No convective potential which sucks for mid March. Basically it's looking like the whole stretch from late Feb to late March is a month worth of down time for anything of interest of any kind. Hopefully something of interest shows up sometime in April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 I am sure most are aware of the snowstorm in the front range of the Rockies. I found a time lapse from Cheyenne, Wy this morning. Make sure you wait till the very end to see what this morning looks like. https://webcams.windy.com/webcams/public/embed/player/1456851101/lifetime?token=see.cam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 didnt know where to put this National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 504 AM MDT Sun Mar 14 2021 ...HISTORIC AND CRIPPLING WINTER STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT ALL OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND... ...WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TODAY...TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ...CONDITIONS UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY... ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Very heavy snow and blowing snow. Total snow accumulations of 20 to 30 inches with local amounts up to 50 inches above 8000 feet elevation. Wind gusts up to 60 MPH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 1 hour ago, iluvsnow said: I am sure most are aware of the snowstorm in the front range of the Rockies. I found a time lapse from Cheyenne, Wy this morning. Make sure you wait till the very end to see what this morning looks like. https://webcams.windy.com/webcams/public/embed/player/1456851101/lifetime?token=see.cam meh. alek's pics from a month ago put these to shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 12z GFS V16 is clearly the only model with a handle on tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted March 14, 2021 Share Posted March 14, 2021 The GFS still has really high amounts here compared to all the other models. I'm still forecasting a low end advisory, guessing about 3-4" when it's all said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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