Chicago Storm Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 I'm entertaining the thought of going downstate to chase but I really don't know if Thursday's severe potential is worth driving all the way from Aurora for.Go.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 From KIND There will be a severe threat with this convection late Thursday evening into Thursday night. The moderate WAA will keep the thermodynamic environment fairly conducive for longer. CAPE values around 1000 J/kg are expected to maintain through around 04Z; , diurnal cooling will begin to take over, limiting any SBCAPE. Prior to this, the development of a nocturnal LLJ along with a deepening surface low will create a fairly conducive environment for isolated severe thunderstorms. Wind will be the primary threat as by the time the thunderstorms reach central Indiana they should be primarily linear. The strengthening LLJ and resulting speed shear should help induce some RIJs within linear segments. As diurnal cooling takes over, the thunderstorms will become elevating reducing the wind threat greatly. This is likely to occur shortly after the 04-06Z time period. The severe threat for the entire region will greatly depend on when the thunderstorms reach central Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Go. The one thing that makes me hesitant still is the timing, I'm really not trying to get down there for nighttime storms and that seems to be the direction things are trending in, unless I'm sorely mistaken. Either way, I'll keep an eye on things. We'll see how everything shapes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 12, 2021 Author Share Posted June 12, 2021 I just noticed there were 3 tornadoes in southwest Indiana on June 8. These were the first tornadoes in Indiana this year. Only a few other years made it to June without one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 12, 2021 Share Posted June 12, 2021 Could be some damaging winds and microbursts locally today, hopefully IWX finally breaks their warning drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 12, 2021 Share Posted June 12, 2021 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0224 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SE MEDINAH 41.95N 88.03W 06/12/2021 M61 MPH DUPAGE IL TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED USING HANDHELD METER. Getting closer to Chi town's first svr t storm of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 12, 2021 Share Posted June 12, 2021 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE 241 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2021 ILC031-043-122030- /O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210612T2030Z/ DUPAGE IL-COOK IL- 241 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR EASTERN DUPAGE AND SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNTIES... AT 240 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER JUSTICE, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH! SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CHICAGO, CICERO, BOLINGBROOK, ORLAND PARK, TINLEY PARK, OAK LAWN, BERWYN, WHEATON, OAK PARK, DOWNERS GROVE, LOMBARD, CAROL STREAM, CALUMET CITY, GLENDALE HEIGHTS, WOODRIDGE, CHICAGO LAWN, ROSELAND, SOUTH LAWNDALE, MIDWAY AIRPORT AND AUSTIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 12, 2021 Share Posted June 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, Indystorm said: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0224 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SE MEDINAH 41.95N 88.03W 06/12/2021 M61 MPH DUPAGE IL TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED USING HANDHELD METER. Getting closer to Chi town's first svr t storm of the year. Either got sandblasted by the dust or pressure washed by the torrent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 12, 2021 Share Posted June 12, 2021 ILC031-122030- /O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210612T2030Z/ COOK IL- 249 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNTY... AT 248 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BRIDGEVIEW, OR OVER JUSTICE, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...ASOS. A 68 MPH WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT MIDWAY AIRPORT AT 2:48 PM CDT. IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CHICAGO, CICERO, ORLAND PARK, TINLEY PARK, OAK LAWN, BERWYN, OAK PARK, CALUMET CITY, CHICAGO LAWN, SOUTH LAWNDALE, ROSELAND, MIDWAY AIRPORT, AUSTIN, BURBANK, LANSING, OAK FOREST, HARVEY, HOMER GLEN, BLUE ISLAND AND DOLTON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 12, 2021 Share Posted June 12, 2021 The warning for dupage panned out. Hail, crazy winds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 Didn't get a chance to post here yesterday but I chased the storm that produced baseball hail in MI yesterday. Did a collective of the pictures and video I took: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 2 hours ago, Stebo said: Didn't get a chance to post here yesterday but I chased the storm that produced baseball hail in MI yesterday. Did a collective of the pictures and video I took: Cool. I could see the towers way low on the horizon from here on the west side of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Could be some severe weather this Thursday and Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Could be some severe weather this Thursday and Friday (Checks GFS and NAM) Dear God, don't let me get suckered to central Lie-owa on a work night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: (Checks GFS and NAM) Dear God, don't let me get suckered to central Lie-owa on a work night. Overnight MCS will make me happy if it can just hold together long enough for a morning CG show. I haven't seen a single CG this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 I'll take the 6Z 3KM NAM over the 00Z, please. Suggests 2 rounds of storms Thursday evening/night for SW/SC WI as well as parts of IA and northern IL. * Only caveat being that it shows it coming through the Madison area around the time I would be commuting into work. Edit: 12Z shafts Dane Co. again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 Tomorrow looks to provide a solid opportunity for a real nice MCS across Iowa. Looking at potentially 5000+ MLCAPE, where spreads and mixing should favor cold pools and outflow dominance along with a 40kt LLJ. If it were me on desk, I'd have already introduced a 30% wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, hlcater said: Tomorrow looks to provide a solid opportunity for a real nice MCS across Iowa. Looking at potentially 5000+ MLCAPE, where spreads and mixing should favor cold pools and outflow dominance along with a 40kt LLJ. If it were me on desk, I'd have already introduced a 30% wind. All the ingredients are there for a high end wind threat imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 Friday could have significant potential just looking at the progged wind fields overlapping a wide warm sector (pending Thursday's convection). Pretty classic WNW flow hodographs showing up in forecast soundings. Shortwaves with 70-80 kt 500 mb maxes this time of year don't tend to go quietly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 Ready to stay up late...or get up early...for the decaying MCS coming through Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 6 hours ago, andyhb said: Friday could have significant potential just looking at the progged wind fields overlapping a wide warm sector (pending Thursday's convection). Pretty classic WNW flow hodographs showing up in forecast soundings. Shortwaves with 70-80 kt 500 mb maxes this time of year don't tend to go quietly. Andyhb piping in on a thread always tends to snag my attention. I like the I-80 north area in IL for some sneaky wind potential. Areas further WNW, it’s not really a sneaky potential. Let’s hope shit stacks in our favor for once this year. I need the rain badly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 Here is an overlay of the NAM supercell composite parameter (which is normally overdone with CAPE) with 500mb wind barbs on Friday afternoon. The high supercell composite parameters are a result in excellent placement of CAPE/ SRH/ 0-6km shear. This seems like a very good setup for reasonably fast-moving severe storms for NW Ohio and into pretty much all parts of Ohio, and possibly starting off with severe storms in northern Indiana. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 Dewpoint of 38 on the 5AM ob at Madison. Going to need very rapid moisture advection for any severe weather threat. This time of year at this latitude I like to see something like 70/66 the night before an expected severe weather day, but it's 2021 so I suppose we have to take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 Latest HRRR has one complex forming in northwest Iowa moving east and one in northern/central Wisconsin moving south, which is depicted still north of me by 05Z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 5 hours ago, Chinook said: Here is an overlay of the NAM supercell composite parameter (which is normally overdone with CAPE) with 500mb wind barbs on Friday afternoon. The high supercell composite parameters are a result in excellent placement of CAPE/ SRH/ 0-6km shear. This seems like a very good setup for reasonably fast-moving severe storms for NW Ohio and into pretty much all parts of Ohio, and possibly starting off with severe storms in northern Indiana. I really like the tornado threat for NW Ohio tomorrow to be honest. If that left over line from today's action lays down a boundary as it should, the ingredients are absolutely there. Some of the best lapse rates you'll ever see as well in this region and CAPE could be off the charts depending on when exactly the storms initiate. Could see this thing turning into quite the bow echo after storms start. I personally would head to Defiance tomorrow to storm chase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 Don't sleep on today in C/N IA Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected late this afternoon into tonight for parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, from northern Iowa/southern Minnesota into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Wind gusts near or exceeding 75 mph, hail up to the size of baseballs, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. ...Upper MS Valley this afternoon into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over the northern Plains/southern Prairie Provinces has crested the ridge, and heights will be suppressed east-southeastward toward the upper MS Valley and upper Great lakes by tonight. An associated, weak surface cold front/trough will likewise move slowly southeastward across NE/IA/MN/WI through tonight. The front and any lingering outflow boundaries from overnight convection will likely focus afternoon and evening thunderstorm development across southeast MN and along the IA/MN border, in phase with an embedded speed max moving eastward from SD (as evidence by the weak midlevel convection over SD this morning). The thermodynamic environment will feature steep midlevel lapse rates with a warm elevated mixed layer extending eastward from the Rockies, atop boundary-layer dewpoints in the 65-70 F range. Strong surface heating in the wake of morning elevated convection will drive large buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg) and weakening convective inhibition as surface temperatures warm into the 90s. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt and the large CAPE will support a threat for supercells initially, with very large hail (up to baseball size) and damaging winds. Any semi-discrete storms in the zone of stronger low-level shear/warm advection closer to the MS River will also pose a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Otherwise, storms are expected to coalesce and grow upscale into one or more bowing clusters with the potential to produce significant damaging winds (greater than 75 mph) prior to the convection spreading east of the larger buoyancy late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 The SPC has a big part of northern Iowa in the enhanced severe region, but this morning's HRRR and 3kNAM are both capped dud's for most of Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 looking like a skip job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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