fluoronium Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 ILX confirms 4 EF-U tornadoes so far for yesterday's event: https://www.weather.gov/ilx/May3_2021_SevereWeather I ended up chasing further south than I originally intended, and was able to observe the weak tornado near Ashland, IL. I'm pretty sure I captured another tornado near Raymond, IL as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted May 4, 2021 Share Posted May 4, 2021 2 hours ago, fluoronium said: ILX confirms 4 EF-U tornadoes so far for yesterday's event: https://www.weather.gov/ilx/May3_2021_SevereWeather I ended up chasing further south than I originally intended, and was able to observe the weak tornado near Ashland, IL. I'm pretty sure I captured another tornado near Raymond, IL as well. How do you embed your photos? Like how do you generate the link for them? At least I assume that's how you're doing it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 I just upload them and press the little + symbol in the corner. like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 6, 2021 Share Posted May 6, 2021 Interesting Meso MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0552 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0110 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2021 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 061810Z - 062015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...UNIQUE ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF BRIEF LANDSPOUTS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DISCUSSION...FILTERED DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL IL. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST ATOP THESE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, RESULTING IN A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY AT LEAST 7.0 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOVE 500-MB. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASED SURFACE VORTICITY EXISTS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COMBINATION OF THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE VORTICITY RESULTS IN THE UNIQUE ENVIRONMENT WHERE DEVELOPING/DEEPENING UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE IN BRIEF LANDSPOUTS. LIMITED AND BRIEF NATURE OF THIS THREAT PRECLUDES WATCH ISSUANCE. ..MOSIER/GRAMS.. 05/06/2021 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 6, 2021 Share Posted May 6, 2021 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 217 PM CDT THU MAY 6 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 245 PM CDT. * AT 216 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER PANA, OR 12 MILES EAST OF NOKOMIS, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND VEHICLES. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... TOWER HILL AROUND 220 PM CDT. COWDEN AROUND 245 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE HERRICK AND OCONEE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 6, 2021 Share Posted May 6, 2021 Not really a tornado environment down there today, but instead more of a cold air funnel environment.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Not really a tornado environment down there today, but instead more of a cold air funnel environment. . Had me going there for a sec. Might as well just lock this thread for the next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz I agree. This is just weird lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 17, 2021 Share Posted May 17, 2021 All in on the 3km NAM for this Midwest classic 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 definitely think there will be a few severe chances in the upper midwest over the next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, madwx said: definitely think there will be a few severe chances in the upper midwest over the next week I think SPC mentioned it in yesterday's DY4-8 but they kind of removed the reference today, and the DY3 Marginal is nowhere close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 18, 2021 Share Posted May 18, 2021 A week out there is promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 ids habbening? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 GFS shows some potential events next week but they're generally much more localized and a lot farther west than depicted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 Good instability and shear doesn't arrive until Tuesday, at the earliest. Before that there just isn't good mid-level lapse rates or shear, except for the far northern plains. Of course ECMWF and GFS disagree on the position and timing of of fronts / synoptic waves that far out, so it's impossible to tell where the action will actually be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 21, 2021 Share Posted May 21, 2021 Next week does have some potential on the models but I will believe it when I see it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 22, 2021 Share Posted May 22, 2021 ECMWF has some supercell potential Tuesday evening for MSP into northern Wisconsin. Wednesday the setup moves into Michigan. Could be something if timing isn't garbage. Way too early, but there isn't really anything noteworthy outside the northern plains before then. I'm praying the backdoor cold front on Sunday gives me some precip, but the instability looks to be pretty pathetic as typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 24, 2021 Share Posted May 24, 2021 KIND. Focus will then shift to a surface wave kicking out across the Central Plains along the boundary. This will pull the boundary back north into the forecast area Thursday night with what is likely to be the most organized threat for convection as the surface wave tracks through the forecast area Friday morning. Expect widespread showers and storms with the low pressure passing through the region late Thursday night into Friday and riding along the instability gradient which at this point which is likely to setup over the forecast area in the vicinity of the front. With the presence of a stronger low level jet nosing into the region and modest BL shear values as well...potential for robust convection to impact parts of the forecast area remains a threat. CIPS analog guidance continues to offer historical support in a greater threat for strong to severe convection over parts of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 Eyeing Thursday night KIND Models then show a low forming over the central plains that will then move into the area Thursday. Rain could begin as soon as midday in the far western portion of the forecast area, but better chances look to be for the evening to overnight hours. This system seems to be a better organized event with a threat for severe weather included as the low passes through the area Thursday night into Friday. The low level jet will likely set up aloft and ample CAPE (in excess of 1000 J/kg) is also expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 Pending what happens with the morning mcs Thursday has respectable potential for the lower ohio valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 Out chasing in the Plains, caught the large tornado as it moved into Selden, KS yesterday. Got some pretty amazing video as it started to hit town, you can make out power flashes as it gets to the edge of town in my video here was def by far the best chasing experience I’ve ever had 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 24 minutes ago, NEILwxbo said: Out chasing in the Plains, caught the large tornado as it moved into Selden, KS yesterday. Got some pretty amazing video as it started to hit town, you can make out power flashes as it gets to the edge of town in my video here was def by far the best chasing experience I’ve ever had It never ceases to amaze me the idiots that drive right into the tornado. Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 I'm entertaining the thought of going downstate to chase but I really don't know if Thursday's severe potential is worth driving all the way from Aurora for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2021 Author Share Posted May 25, 2021 15 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I'm entertaining the thought of going downstate to chase but I really don't know if Thursday's severe potential is worth driving all the way from Aurora for. You could wait for severe weather to visit northern Illinois, which should be no later than, oh, June 2025. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: You could wait for severe weather to visit northern Illinois, which should be no later than, oh, June 2025. I'll take that as a "yes, do it". That's exactly what I'm worried about myself, I really don't feel like waiting all season long for something to pop up locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 50 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: It never ceases to amaze me the idiots that drive right into the tornado. Smh The first truck seen driving towards it actually ended up getting flipped over about a mile up the road 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 There is supercell potential in NW Wisconsin right now. The western UP too. Out of range for everyone but cheeseland though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 1 hour ago, NEILwxbo said: The first truck seen driving towards it actually ended up getting flipped over about a mile up the road Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Wow People still don't understand what a tornado looks like when the condensation funnel isn't on the ground. Edit: Oops. Even the funnel is all the way to the ground and debris is obvious, yet some people still don't stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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