Hoosier Posted May 2, 2021 Author Share Posted May 2, 2021 Yes I was looking for any excuse to use this for mby 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 Several warnings ongoing in far SE MN and across that belt of Wisconsin from just north of La Crosse to just south of Green Bay that has seen just about all the action so far this spring. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0476.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 Dad and stepmom just gave their dogs diazepam with thunder in the vicinity. Prayers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yes I was looking for any excuse to use this for mby That 18Z run of the 3KM NAM also has that intriguing surface low in Iowa (that the 12Z "low-res" NAM had) with a small area of backed surface flow ahead of the triple point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 Should get an MCV or two out of this to help kick things off early tomorrow afternoon and also locally enhance the severe threat. Pretty big timing difference in hi-res and globals. The AM upper low will have to get out of the way to achieve sufficient instability, which seems doable. Curious to see how this interacts with the outflow/front across WI or northern IL too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 00Z HRRR is strongly suggestive of some fun along or just south of the I-80 corridor in IL tomorrow afternoon/evening. Of course, this would land during the only 3-day period in which I have to work from last Wednesday through this coming Thursday. Took off last Wednesday/Thursday, Friday/Saturday were my "weekend" since I worked today. So it'll be work tomorrow, get off at noon, race to the target area, chase, go home and go back to work at 3AM Tuesday. Then I have Wednesday/Thursday off since I'm working next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy46237 Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Indy just got put into the mix of things. We haven't had anything interesting in years as we seem to be in a bubble. Confidence for the forecast?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Any chance these clouds will break by noon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 nah 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 27 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: nah Seems to be a few breaks in eastern IA/northern IL. Would like to see them expand, though and/or that clearing in MO expand NE'ward. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-IL-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 5% tor risk now brought up as far north as I-80 in northern IL in morning outlook due to approaching MCV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, Indystorm said: 5% tor risk now brought up as far north as I-80 in northern IL in morning outlook due to approaching MCV. looks like its by Kansas city now..some spin to it If winds can back ahead of it may be a few surprises if cells form ahead of it on WAA arm perhaps a bit south of models (me to I-72) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 It isn't going to take that much heating to achieve the convective temp seen on local upper air soundings this morning (probably by noon in IA/WI). That convective trigger temp is anywhere from 69-74F (72F on the DVN sounding below). It may not even need to reach that high to get things going with the two MCVs approaching, a number of surface convergence areas and differential heating. Faster mid-level flow is found just S of the NW Missouri MCV and should make it up to about I-80, so that may be the limit to the potential for more organized severe wx. I am personally 100% ok w/ a garden variety storm at this point. Storm motions will not be all that fast so some of us will pick up a prolonged downpour. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 That little complex in MO= tops slowly cooling....if meso-low can form may back winds over central IL later HRRR picking up in on this some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 3, 2021 Author Share Posted May 3, 2021 My excitement level for severe wx is pretty low, especially around my neck of the woods. Have been hard pressed to have days with even a remote threat so far in this area, so will be watching the trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 As per usual, this sets up in the most annoying possible place for me - at just about the fringe of how far I can go on a work night and still get home in time to get a couple hours' sleep, and not good enough to really get my adrenaline flowing, but with enough conditional potential to keep me biting my nails watching the radar if I stay home. Some of that CAM output has been a little eye-opening, but the cloud cover is hanging tough across the area of interest. *Edit* Although as @Chicago Storm alluded to, some clearing does appear to be pushing in now. Also of concern though is that the HRRR seems to be depicting a rather cluster-y/bowing storm mode with the early evening activity along and north of I-72. It's like every setup is determined to remind me that I can never forgive myself for blowing Rochelle day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 The area to watch today is definitely across C IL, as a few others have mentioned. An MCV that has been moving eastward along the IA/MO border this morning will continue eastward across C IL this afternoon and evening.The biggest question for today has been cloud cover, which had been locked in place across the main focus area. However, more recently there has been a growing wedge of clearing pushing northward across NE MO and is now progressing into W IL as well. If that holds, coupled with the MCV and decent instability/moisture/shear, could have a solid threat across C IL this afternoon and evening.We’ll see how it progresses.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The area to watch today is definitely across C IL, as a few others have mentioned. An MCV that has been moving eastward along the IA/MO border this morning will continue eastward across C IL this afternoon and evening. The biggest question for today has been cloud cover, which had been locked in place across the main focus area. However, more recently there has been a growing wedge of clearing pushing northward across NE MO and is now progressing into W IL as well. If that holds, coupled with the MCV and decent instability/moisture/shear, could have a solid threat across C IL this afternoon and evening. We’ll see how it progresses... I really haven't been following this ultra closely so far... Is there any chance if supercell development or is this one of those linear mode days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I really haven't been following this ultra closely so far... Is there any chance if supercell development or is this one of those linear mode days? There definitely could be some supercell structures. The best severe potential will likely end up between I-74 and I-72 in W-C IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: There definitely could be some supercell structures. The best severe potential will likely end up between I-74 and I-72 in W-C IL Sounds good, appreciate the advice! The chase is on. Any additional advice or suggestions along the way would be greatly appreciated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Sounds good, appreciate the advice! The chase is on. Any additional advice or suggestions along the way would be greatly appreciated... Good luck! If I lived an hour and a half further south I'd probably bite on today. Of course, if I lived an hour and a half further south I'd probably be a Bears fan, so... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 As per usual just head to Macomb and wait lol. That place has had the hot hand for years. Up this way we're socked in with clouds but still wouldn't be surprised if some low-end severe occurs. I'm wanting the rains more than anything. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 I'll be out chasing today, probably along i74 or US136. For those chasing west of the IL river, be aware of the river crossings in the area so you don't get trapped or miss out on a storm. Also anything roughly west of the Jacksonville, IL area to close to the Mississippi river is a 100% dead zone for verizon reception. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 33 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Sounds good, appreciate the advice! The chase is on. Any additional advice or suggestions along the way would be greatly appreciated... I'm pondering going, but haven't gotten the will to do so yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I'm pondering going, but haven't gotten the will to do so yet. Have like 180 miles ahead of us so hopefully we'll make it in time... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Illinois is looking interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Meanwhile, the ones in Dixie just keep on spinning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Meanwhile, the ones in Dixie just keep on spinning... Second one is (was?) a PDS. In a slight risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 PM CDT MON MAY 03 2021 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 031908Z - 032015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD EASTERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY AND WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM CENTRAL WI SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MO. THIS IS ALSO JUST AHEAD OF A REMNANT MCV THAT IS SLOWLY PROPAGATING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RECENT RAP MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCIN IS DECREASING ACROSS THE CLEARING WARM SECTOR WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S/UPPER 80S AND DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING IS ERODING REMAINING INHIBITION. INSOLATION, COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM, IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY LIMITED TO EASTERN MO/WESTERN IL, THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD WITH TIME AS CLEARING CONTINUES. 30-45 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEARLY ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT AND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE MCV (NOTED IN SURFACE OBS ACROSS CENTRAL MO) SHOULD SUPPORT SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS WITHIN A BROKEN LINE ALONG THE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH ESRH VALUES NEAR 150 M2/S2, WHICH MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT - PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MCV ACROSS CENTRAL IL WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST (THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW). REGARDLESS, A WATCH IS LIKELY IN THE COMING HOURS AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. ..MOORE/GRAMS.. 05/03/2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now