Hoosier Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Certainly not anything like what is going on in Dixie, but watching Saturday for some activity. Looks like one of those little remind-you-of-the-coming-season setups. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Certainly not anything like what is going on in Dixie, but watching Saturday for some activity. Looks like one of those little remind-you-of-the-coming-season setups. Yes it does. Everything happens west of Ohio and we get the rainy leftovers or it makes to the I-75 corridor and falls apart I obviously have high expectations for this season so far here in Central Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 Took awhile to clear out here, not sure it'll pan out IMBY. Give me some thunder and I'll be happy. Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0281 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Areas affected...South-central Missouri into western Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 271934Z - 272130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along ahead of cold front this afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with any strong storms. A weather watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible satellite data showed deepening cumulus towers located along and east of a diffuse cold front and wave cyclone stretching from northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri. Deepening of the initial convective updrafts and eventual thunderstorm development is likely over the next couple of hours as the lower atmosphere continues to destabilize ahead of a mid-level trough across the upper Midwest. SPC mesoanalysis shows surface dewpoints in the 50s F overlain by mid-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km are supporting 500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE across much southern Missouri. Surface obs and regional VWPs show strongly veered surface flow with long but mostly straight line hodographs. Deep-layer shear near 60 kts should favor a mix of splitting cells and short line segments capable of damaging wind gusts and severe hail. With much of the mid-level flow parallel to the slow moving surface front and high LCLs favoring stronger cold pool development, storm mergers and upscale growth with a greater threat for damaging wind gusts appears likely as storms move northeast toward western Illinois later tonight. A weather watch may be needed in the next couple of hours for the threat of severe hail/wind through this evening. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 03/27/2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 ILX Quote .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 A surface low centered over eastern Iowa this afternoon will continue to lift east-northeast into Michigan tonight. A warm front is positioned from northern Illinois into northern Indiana, with a cold front stretched from the center of the low to the southern Plains. Showers and storms are ongoing across the Illinois River Valley region as of 3 PM, tied to 850 mb moisture transport and WAA. As the cold front continues to push east over the next few hours, storms are anticipated to become reinforced. A special sounding released at ILX at 18Z depicted mid-level lapse rates between 7-8 C/km, 0-6 km shear of 80+ kts, and 0-3 km around 40 kts. Instability has grown since the release of the sounding, with SPC mesoscale analysis depicting about 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE spread across a good portion of the area as dewpoints are sitting in the low to mid 50s. Because of this, strong to severe storms remain possible later this afternoon into this evening - primary time frame between 5 and 10 pm. Straight-line hodographs indicate storm motion will be mostly parallel to the front and suggest that storms should develop into line segments. Primary threats appear to be large hail and damaging winds. At this time, low-level shear does not look supportive of tornadoes, though it cannot be entirely ruled out. Precipitation amounts will be on the lighter side due to the progressiveness of the front. QPF totals of around a 0.50" or less is expected, though locally higher amounts will be possible in any strong storms as PWATs are near 1.00" and warm cloud depths are over 10k feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 Could be an interesting evening in IL and IN as we get our first taste of spring t storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 Wasn't even yawn worthy. Same old song and dance, storm skirts by, showers stabilize things, anything behind will weaken as it approaches. I did hear some thunder though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 1 hour ago, WeatherMonger said: Wasn't even yawn worthy. Same old song and dance, storm skirts by, showers stabilize things, anything behind will weaken as it approaches. I did hear some thunder though.... I-70 and south is getting it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Hmmmm.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Severe warning now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: I-70 and south is getting it today. Yeah, SPC could have done without the NW bump of the slight to along the IL river here. Storm that did pass through was easily covered by the marginal, HRRR did well with it staying to my south I'm severe weather starved here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Heavy hail north of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 28, 2021 Author Share Posted March 28, 2021 16 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: Yeah, SPC could have done without the NW bump of the slight to along the IL river here. Storm that did pass through was easily covered by the marginal, HRRR did well with it staying to my south I'm severe weather starved here Just a general comment... it seems like severe setups this year (not that there have been very many yet in this region) haven't really struggled in the mid level lapse rate department for the most part. If this continues deeper into spring as moisture return improves with northward extent, then it could raise the stakes in this sub farther down the road. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: Severe warning now That should verify here in Lebanon just for the hail. Came down pretty good for awhile. Most of it was dime sized or smaller but there was some nickel sized stuff in the middle of the hail core. The lawn was about 3/4'd covered by the hail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 I spend all day yesterday at Ben Davis HS photographing Indiana Percussion State Finals. I was pretty oblivious to weather let along severe weather possibilities. Headed home and could see a pretty impressive lightning storm ahead as I made my was up 421 back to Kokomo. Crossed 32 and the rain kicked in. A couple of miles later I ran into the hail core. Oh my. Nickle sized hail, zero visibility, no shelter (for the car), it was deafening inside the car. (I was just in a gym with percussion for 10 hours so I know loud!) It lasted for 5 minutes or so. I made it to Kirklin and pulled under an abandon gas station canopy. No damage to the car. Whew. Double checked today and still good. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 10, 2021 Share Posted April 10, 2021 Surprising comment in the Chicago AFD this Friday evening for Saturday in our region..... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 649 PM CDT Fri Apr 9 2021 .SHORT TERM... 310 PM CDT Tonight through Sunday... [Tonight through Saturday Night] Main Highlights: * Potential for patchy fog overnight tonight near and north of I-80, some of which may be dense, particularly far northern IL * A period of steady and at times heavy rain for the entire area during the day on Saturday * Chance for isolated to widely scattered embedded low-topped thunderstorms toward mid day through Saturday afternoon * Approximately 4-6 hour window mid day Saturday through the mid to possibly late afternoon with a lower end (low confidence, low coverage) surface based strong-severe risk. Potential exists for low-topped supercells in the warm sector lifting north with a warm front, with a brief tornado and damaging wind threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 10, 2021 Share Posted April 10, 2021 Tomorrow does have some potential 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 12Z 3KM NAM has a nice fantasy warm front rider in northern Illinois Wednesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted April 27, 2021 Share Posted April 27, 2021 severe thunderstorm warning in NE Wisconsin right now with sfc temps around 40 degress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 27, 2021 Share Posted April 27, 2021 Looks like a shot at isolated to perhaps scattered t’storms in the area overnight/early tomorrow morning, as the disturbance currently in the S Plains moves through. If any activity does occur, (severe or not) should have hail potential given the modeled instability and lapse rates.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 Confirmed tornado in eastern IL. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Lincoln IL 740 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a * Tornado Warning for... South central Douglas County in east central Illinois... * Until 800 PM CDT. * At 740 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Arcola, or 10 miles south of Tuscola, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles. * The tornado will be near... Arcola around 745 PM CDT. This includes Interstate 57 between mile markers 203 and 208. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 Some spinning over Decatur as well at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 Just snuck into a severe t’storm warning here with these virga shows/t’storms.Gusted to 40-50mph.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 Prayers 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 SPC is gonna need to stretch the marginal up into eastern IA/northern IL for tomorrow. CAMs have been pretty consistent in indicating decent convection over the area tomorrow afternoon/evening, with 1000-2000J/KG cape and respectable low-level wind shear. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 20 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: SPC is gonna need to stretch the marginal up into eastern IA/northern IL for tomorrow. CAMs have been pretty consistent in indicating decent convection over the area tomorrow afternoon/evening, with 1000-2000J/KG cape and respectable low-level wind shear. Yep. 3KM NAM hardly breaks out anything over the "prime" risk area but plenty of storms over the upper Midwest. HRRR concurs but is more robust with development in the current Slight/hatched area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 SPC is gonna need to stretch the marginal up into eastern IA/northern IL for tomorrow. CAMs have been pretty consistent in indicating decent convection over the area tomorrow afternoon/evening, with 1000-2000J/KG cape and respectable low-level wind shear.Yea, I’m not sure why they didn’t have a marginal that far north originally on the day 3, and really have no idea why they haven’t brought it north on the day 2. Depending on how things continue to look, might even need a slight risk across E IA/NW-W IL. Best activity will end up west of here, but activity might still have an isolated severe potential when it gets into this area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 Chase mode activated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Yea, I’m not sure why they didn’t have a marginal that far north originally on the day 3, and really have no idea why they haven’t brought it north on the day 2. Depending on how things continue to look, might even need a slight risk across E IA/NW-W IL. Best activity will end up west of here, but activity might still have an isolated severe potential when it gets into this area. There we have it on the Day 2 update. Slight goes to about the I-80 corridor, marginal with 2% tornado to the WI/IL border. Confoundingly, the 12Z 3KM NAM is much less impressive with the environment over E IA/N IL tomorrow evening than is its coarser cousin. The latter makes it look like a definite local chase day with a nice little 996MB mesolow over eastern IA. The 3K, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 2, 2021 Share Posted May 2, 2021 Parameters are pretty good over the region tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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