cyclone77 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Broyles forecasts 325 out of 365 day3-8 SPC outlooks per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 Although there is no instability farther east, would not be surprised to see some isolated damaging gusts with that band of shallow showers. Some of the background/synoptic gusts will be flirting with or exceeding 58 mph anyway, and it won't take much downward momentum with those showers to make that happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Threat expanded eastward and 5% tor added. It’ll be essentially impossible to keep up with these storms so anyone trying to chase will get one chance to intercept 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Tomorrow's system is of the type that could create a substantial regional tornado outbreak if it were April with a wide open Gulf (thinking here of a certain date in 1965). Quote As strong southerly warm-sector winds advect a seasonably moist airmass northward, ahead of the fast-moving/vigorous storm system, rapid evolution of the atmosphere will occur both thermodynamically and kinematically across the central CONUS. Of course, these days that's always when a winter pattern decides to finally set in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 41 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Tomorrow's system is of the type that could create a substantial regional tornado outbreak if it were April with a wide open Gulf (thinking here of a certain date in 1965). Decent chance it will. Low-level shear is outrageous but deep-layer shear suggests storms will quickly line out. Could be a mix of sups and LEWPs that produce after dark tomorrow imo. There are many indicators for long-trackers should the Euro's forecast instability materialize. Any capping there would easily be overcome by the dynamics ahead of the rapidly deepening, neg tilt 500mb wave. Below is an area avg sounding from the NE ~quarter of IA at 00Z tmrw eve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Just now, purduewx80 said: Decent chance it will. Low-level shear is outrageous but deep-layer shear suggests storms will quickly line out. Could be a mix of sups and LEWPs that produce after dark tomorrow imo. There are many indicators for long-trackers should the Euro's forecast instability materialize. Any capping there would easily be overcome by the dynamics ahead of the rapidly deepening, neg tilt 500mb wave. Below is an area avg sounding from the NE ~quarter of IA at 00Z tmrw eve. Surprised you're so bullish given the lack of substantial instability. That said, at 75kt RM, any tornado that persists for more than 10 minutes will be a longer tracked tornado. The army of long tracked EF0s is upon us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 minute ago, hlcater said: Surprised you're so bullish given the lack of substantial instability. That said, at 75kt RM, any tornado that persists for more than 10 minutes will be a longer tracked tornado. The army of long tracked EF0s is upon us. I was trying and apparently failed to say the caveat is definitely instability. The Gulf is wide open, and the Euro shows what is possible. The EPS has been showing increasing probs for a high end event, as well. I'm not saying there will be a lot of tornadoes, but some of the LEWPs embedded in the line should have no trouble producing. Widespread severe winds is the slam dunk here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: I was trying and apparently failed to say the caveat is definitely instability. The Gulf is wide open, and the Euro shows what is possible. The EPS has been showing increasing probs for a high end event, as well. I'm not saying there will be a lot of tornadoes, but some of the LEWPs embedded in the line should have no trouble producing. Widespread severe winds is the slam dunk here. needs to be an enhanced risk for wind if you ask me. Right now, 5/30/0 probs seem reasonable. Could see this going to a 10 if we're looking at 1000 MLCAPE by tomorrow morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 The NAMs are essentially what you're looking for thermodynamically if you want a localized outbreak tomorrow. 1000 MLCAPE and hodographs taken from every other model not the NAM would suggest perhaps a strong tornado would be possible if you can get a sustained supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 lol what the hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 bunkers right motions on these storms in sample hodographs are around 80 mph, due to the NE motion that means you'd have to drive 100-105 mph on N/S and then E/W roads to keep up with the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 This setup has almost everything going for it except MLCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 GRR jumping all in on the wind event with this next one. I recorded 64MPH with the last one. Don't really want anything higher like they are saying. We are issuing, with this forecast package, a High Wind Watch from 7 pm Wednesday till 1 pm Thursday for all but the I-69 area. The HREF ensemble mean wind gust forecast has 60 to 65 mph forecast at 1 am Thursday from South Haven to north of the of Traverse City. With the last event, on the 11th, it had a small area of 50 to 55 mph south of Grand Haven. As it turned out, it was low by 10 to 15 mph based on our observations. Given that and that ECMWF has gusts to 60 from Holland north and the GFS has 60 mph all the way east to I-75 and 63 mph to 69 mph west of US-131, it makes sense to have a High Wind Watch for all but the SE CWA (I-69). The strongest winds will be from around 10 pm (ish) to 7 am (ish). The model forecasts have been very persistent with this idea of very strong winds Thursday morning. That is the key message from this forecast package, high winds Thursday morning. As we have been writing about in all of our recent AFDs, we have a rapidly deepening surface low that tracks from eastern Colorado tomorrow morning to north of Lake Superior by 7 am Thursday morning. The upper level wave goes negative tilt tomorrow (which explains the rapid deepening). There is a significant trop fold with this system too. The results of this is the forecast wind fields significantly strong for this storm than they were for the system we had on Saturday the 11th. At Grand Rapids, the 925 mb wind is 10 knots higher than the previous event. Over our northwest CWA the wind field is 20+ knots strong at 925 mb and 850 mb and at least 10 to 20 knots stronger near the surface. Remember we had gusts in the 60 to 65 mph range near the coast with that storm, 50 to 60 mph inland. I would expect higher gusts with this event than with that previous event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 WHAT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, MNstorms said: WHAT Insanity. 8" of snow on the ground with 5% tornado probs. Not to keep ripping on Broyles but wonder what he thinks of this outlook lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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