Avon Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Almost 100 strikes/min with this complex of storms in Michigan, pretty good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 EC dropping the big one with a tornado watch locally quite early: Tornado Watch Issued at 12:03 Tuesday 14 September 2021 Summary Conditions are favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms which may produce tornadoes. Hazards: Tornadoes Large hail up to ping pong ball sizeWind gusts up to 120 km/h Heavy downpours Timing: This afternoon and evening. Discussion: A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to move eastward across the regions this afternoon and into the evening. Some of these storms will likely contain tornadoes. I think they got spooked from last Tuesday with the largest tornado in Ontario history occurring near Kingsbridge-Lucknow (1300 meters wide). For comparison the violent tornadoes of May 31 1985 here were 200 and 600 meters respectively!! This tornado watch is the largest geographically I've seen too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 This fall is show signs of being active severe weather wise. Something we haven't seen in a while 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: This fall is show signs of being active severe weather wise. Something we haven't seen in a while Not sure why you were weenied but I agree! The lightning tonight alone would’ve been prolific for any mid-July storm, let alone with astronomical fall a week away! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 The 2nd Tuesday in a row of a tornado warning for Grey-Bruce/Huron county and this time I saw the rotation right at home! In the beginning I wasn't sure if I saw a funnel or just scud but I could briefly see the rotation just like I did in the Plains. It lined up with reports of rotating wall cloud north of Walkerton moving east. Then a new couplet must have formed to the south and OPP in Mount Forest reported a touchdown 30 minutes later around 7:30 pm. I had a lot more lightning and rain than last Tues. No hail for me. 4 waves of storms this evening and I'm up to an astounding 14 storms for the year This has been so far the most active September I've ever seen for storms and others concur. With all these tornado warnings this is getting insane . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 9 hours ago, RobertSul said: Not sure why you were weenied but I agree! The lightning tonight alone would’ve been prolific for any mid-July storm, let alone with astronomical fall a week away! I'm used to getting weenied. I agree. Very electrical storms for September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Surprise slight risk cropped up this morning, although I don't have high expectations for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Up to 5% tor at the 13Z. This strong FROPA was on my radar (so to speak) at longer ranges but I admit I kind of tuned it out once it got into Day 4-8 range and SPC said the strongest winds aloft and support for ascent would lag behind the warm sector. I haven't looked at any models myself yet so I can't say if that's changed in some fashion or if they're just hedging their bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 ....annnnnnd back down to 2% at 1630. SPC giving me whiplash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 god im in a coma for today. rain should be nice tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 31 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: ....annnnnnd back down to 2% at 1630. SPC giving me whiplash. they're not an intelligent bunch there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 17 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: they're not an intelligent bunch there. Still way better than me at severe weather forecasting (I should hope so because they get paid to do it), but even I find myself scratching my head at more and more of their calls in recent years. When and why did they go so far downhill? Just anecdotally (not looking at any actual verification stats, which will probably prove me wrong, lol), seems like they were better in the 2000s/early 2010s despite the advances in modeling that have been made since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Back to 5% in an early-release 20Z, but only for portions of the north woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Gadzoiks. ...up in the woods, par for the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 nice bowing segment heading toward me. Tornadoes possible with any parts of the line that surge NEward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 27 minutes ago, madwx said: nice bowing segment heading toward me. Tornadoes possible with any parts of the line that surge NEward. All warnings south of northern Sauk dropped for now, we'll see what those segments in Grant/Iowa/Lafayette do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Tornado warning in Green County just now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 @madwx Coming right at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mthums Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Keeping an eye on it from the west side of town but it looks like the rotation weakened on the last scan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 25 minutes ago, mthums said: Keeping an eye on it from the west side of town but it looks like the rotation weakened on the last scan. Yep. West side as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Getting hit very hard with rain, probably going to end up well over 1.5" here. Definitely the wettest thunderstorm of the year for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2021 Author Share Posted October 10, 2021 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms -- including potential for hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes -- are expected to spread from the Mid Mississippi Valley region early, north-northeastward into the Upper Great Lakes through the evening/overnight hours Monday and into early Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough digging south-southeastward across California and the Great Basin Monday will evolve into a closed low, which is expected deepen and turn eastward overnight reaching the southwestern Utah vicinity Tuesday morning. Ahead of this system, a negatively tilted short-wave trough will be shifting northeastward across the Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys during the day, before crossing the Upper Great Lakes region overnight. Meanwhile, ridging will remain in place -- aligned roughly along the Appalachians. At the surface, a cold front associated with the western U.S. trough will sweep across the Great Basin and into the Four Corners states. Meanwhile, a cold front shifting eastward out of the southern Plains toward the Mississippi Valley will weaken with time, while an associated/weak frontal low advances northeastward from Missouri to Wisconsin/Upper Michigan through the period. ...Mid Mississippi Valley northward into the Upper Great Lakes... Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from western Illinois/Missouri south-southwestward to southeastern Texas, ahead of an advancing cold front. A couple of stronger storms ongoing early could pose local risk for severe weather. After a few hours of local/limited risk, diurnal heating through late morning and into the afternoon will permit sufficient destabilization to allow gradual reintensification/redevelopment of storms, from Illinois to the Mississippi Delta region, then spreading northward and northeastward through the afternoon. Though flow aloft will remain largely south-southwesterly/unidirectional, sufficient speed shear combined with weak veering through the lowest 1 km or so suggests that locally severe/rotating storms will evolve, with threat for damaging wind gusts, along with some hail risk and potential for a couple of tornadoes across a relatively broad geographic region. A bit more uncertainty exists with northward extent, and into the evening hours, into the Great Lakes region. While ascent will spread across this region supporting a continuation of convection through the evening and into the overnight hours, less substantial instability -- diminishing further in tandem with diurnal cooling -- suggests that severe risk will wane gradually from late evening onward. ..Goss.. 10/10/2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2021 Author Share Posted October 10, 2021 5/15/15 on the probabilities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Friday is kinda sneaky but I see you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Tomorrow is kinda interesting. Rapidly progressive triple point could support some highly sheared, relatively low topped supercells with a hail and brief tornado threat. I have an exam at 6:30 so I will not be chasing. Would expect supercells to be very long and quite skinny based on relatively weak directional shear but exceptional speed shear. Interested to see how that ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 4 hours ago, hlcater said: Tomorrow is kinda interesting. Rapidly progressive triple point could support some highly sheared, relatively low topped supercells with a hail and brief tornado threat. I have an exam at 6:30 so I will not be chasing. Would expect supercells to be very long and quite skinny based on relatively weak directional shear but exceptional speed shear. Interested to see how that ages. Meh, threat (such as it is) shifted too far away to be of interest for me. On the initial day 2 outlook the 2% covered most of the southern 1/2 of WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 RIP.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: RIP. . yea nope nevermind lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 18 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Friday is kinda sneaky but I see you. All the ingredients to the potential for widespread moderate to heavy rain and isolated severe thunderstorms on Friday as a cold front slides southeast across central Indiana Friday and Friday evening courtesy of an approaching sharp upper trough and surface high pressure over the Rockies and High Plains. Modest to moderate low level 35 knot jet pointing in from western Kentucky will bring in precipitable water amounts to the 99th percentile for this time of year. This will combine with strong deep layer shear of over 50 knots and low level shear near 50 knots to support the potential of isolated damaging winds despite only weak instability. 115 plus knot upper level jet streak lifting northeast around the base of the trough over northwestern Indiana or northeastern Illinois late Friday supports moderate to heavy rain. Thus, 90 plus percent PoPs look good for Friday with rain moving east into Ohio overnight Friday night and Saturday morning. Look for rainfall of half an inch to over an inch over most or all locations Friday and Friday night. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Already seeing a few checkmarks starting to be ticked off in terms of a fall severe wx potential early next week across recent guidance. Not sure how far north/east it will extend, but it seems there could be a chance for an anomalously large warm sector to exist ahead of whatever ejects eastward from a developing longwave trough in the west. Obviously a lot that could go wrong as with any 8+ day prog, but seeing that moisture available along with a very strong Pacific jet streak making landfall has my eyebrows perked up a bit. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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