hlcater Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 Line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avon Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 Looks like a rare day three update by spc has a marginal risk out now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 I think we end up seeing an enhanced risk for tomorrow. Pretty strong Windfield for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: I think we end up seeing an enhanced risk for tomorrow. Pretty strong Windfield for this event 3k nam has an impressive squal line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 Impressive line of of storms on this model to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 will be a nice shelf for harbor country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2021 Author Share Posted September 7, 2021 It looks to me like some westward expansion may be needed on the upcoming day 1 outlook. I also think higher wind probabilities are in order. As others have mentioned, mode looks primarily linear, but certainly a nonzero tornado threat with these shear profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Happy that this thing looks like it's gonna roll through earlier in the day, instead of right after nightfall like they have a tendency to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: It looks to me like some westward expansion may be needed on the upcoming day 1 outlook. I also think higher wind probabilities are in order. As others have mentioned, mode looks primarily linear, but certainly a nonzero tornado threat with these shear profiles. New Day 1 is pretty much unchanged from Day 2 except to trim the tornado probs and expand 15% wind back to Chicago and extreme NW Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Tennis Ball sized hail near Green Bay this morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 tennis-ball-sized hail in WI in the general thunder outlook (one unconfirmed photo showing a stone 3"+). 12Z soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates of 7-8.5C/km. shear 40-50KT+. pretty good indication to me the outlook is underplaying today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: tennis-ball-sized hail in WI in the general thunder outlook (one unconfirmed photo showing a stone 3"+). 12Z soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates of 7-8.5C/km. shear 40-50KT+. pretty good indication to me the outlook is underplaying today. Seems like this kind of thing only happens in WI on the low-key outlook days. Enhanced/moderate risk with hatched area for hail and we don't see this. That said, it seems the upper Midwest in general rarely gets really large hail events, even with our tornadic supercells (not like in the way that the Plains does). Which is fine with me, since I'm not looking to lose my windshield on a chase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 tennis-ball-sized hail in WI in the general thunder outlook (one unconfirmed photo showing a stone 3"+). 12Z soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates of 7-8.5C/km. shear 40-50KT+. pretty good indication to me the outlook is underplaying today.Time for me to SPC hate again (Easy to do when content is just handed to us)...Most definitely is/was a bad outlook. Everything from last night suggested a slight was needed well into WI (And even further into IL).What’s worse is they double downed with a 20% watch probability MD at 9:15AM, and stated the threat was only “isolated”, when numerous warnings and widespread hail has occurred.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Time for me to SPC hate again (Easy to do when content is just handed to us)... Most definitely is/was a bad outlook. Everything from last night suggested a slight was needed well into WI (And even further into IL). What’s worse is they double downed with a 20% watch probability MD at 9:15AM, and stated the threat was only “isolated”, when numerous warnings and widespread hail has occurred. . Do they just stop paying attention after the summer solstice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 It's been strange from the start...the first Day 3 outlook was general thunder, and they had to the rare reissue to add a marginal area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 41 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Time for me to SPC hate again (Easy to do when content is just handed to us)... Most definitely is/was a bad outlook. Everything from last night suggested a slight was needed well into WI (And even further into IL). What’s worse is they double downed with a 20% watch probability MD at 9:15AM, and stated the threat was only “isolated”, when numerous warnings and widespread hail has occurred. . I thought Roger Edwards put out a top notch outlook this morning (as usual), but I also see what you are saying about underplaying the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 New MD with 40% watch issuance probability, and “maybe” a watch being needed by around 17z for increasing wind threat.Totally overlooking the widespread (and significant) hail threat ongoing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Hopefully they are wise enough to upgrade a chunk of territory to an ENH risk and hatched hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: New MD with 40% watch issuance probability, and “maybe” a watch being needed by around 17z for increasing wind threat. Totally overlooking the widespread (and significant) hail threat ongoing. . "isolated elevated storms" meanwhile 15 warnings in effect 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avon Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 I think Grand Rapids area may have a greater risk for a tornado as helicity looks pretty good in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Still a slight risk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Watch issued for SC/SE WI including Dane County...which the line was already most of the way through at the time. Rather ominous shelf cloud and some CG lightning came through here just before 11:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Line is starting form back into Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avon Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Couple tornado warnings issued for Clare, Osceola counties in northern Michigan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Watches and special weather statements going up with warnings along the lakeshore all across West Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Chicago metro is gonna get rolled in a few hours.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 yeah looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2021 Author Share Posted September 7, 2021 Kinda mystified on the lack of higher probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Kinda mystified on the lack of higher probs.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 been a while since i've seen a good hailer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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