Chicago Storm Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Kind of a blind wait and see situation once again today, similar to Tues/Wed...CAMS are of no help, as most wanted to turn the ND/SD MCS into a ranging derecho today, and didn’t really have the MCS further south across NE/IA. The HRRR did have the southern complex, but has been in insta-kill mode with it, and took it NE into MN. So all guidance is pretty much a toss.As for what’s going on currently, the IA MCS is obviously of focus, and it will be interesting to see if it survives the next 3 hours or so. The environment that it’s in isn’t terrible, but it’s also not the best either (Low shear/modest instability/good moisture/good lapse rates). If it survives, the expected environment for this afternoon across E IA/S WI/N-C IL won’t be really all that better than what it’s currently in this morning.Then you have the ND/SD MCS, which probably won’t turn into a raging derecho as CAMS advertised. It continues to push towards MN, where the environment overall is even worse than what the IA MCS is in currently. Add in the potential issues that will arise if the IA MCS sustains.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 ^best in the biz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 the difficult to model nature of our good late summer mcs patterns is good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 SPC has much of northern Iowa in the enhanced severe area, but the decaying morning MCS has really put the kibosh on instability across the state. I'm afraid it may have ruined tonight storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Both the IA and SD/MN MCS’s were not sustained, so that probably does it for the threat today for most of this sub-forum for today.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve23guy Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 14 hours ago, vortex said: Pic of severe warned storm to my south east this evening in Indiana. Did you snap this looking north west ? Because I swear to god I saw this looking south east yesterday around 530pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve23guy Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, steve23guy said: Did you snap this looking north west ? Because I swear to god I saw this looking south east yesterday around 530pm I mean south east sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 1 hour ago, steve23guy said: I mean south east sorry Yes. I was looking South East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 5 hours ago, WaryWarren said: ^best in the biz Not really. He thinks he knows it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 MKX's late morning AFD update was good for an LOL: Quote A few early thoughts as to how things may evolve this afternoon into tonight. Recent and current CAM performance continues to be more in the camp of for entertainment purposes only. Mode is being handled fairly well, but for specifics like timing, location and intensity the struggle is real. Case in point is the ongoing convection over Iowa. Recent model runs at least are starting to acknowledge its presence, while previous runs failed to produce a signal. So, to the observations! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 43 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: MKX's late morning AFD update was good for an LOL: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Major bust today. Mcs season will do that to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 SPC today... Quote A highly unconditional (low probability) scenario exists for a focused area of tornado/wind potential based on model guidance of supercell activity during the afternoon undergoing a transition to embedded HP and MCS evolution. However, confidence in any one of a multitude of possible scenarios is low at this time. LOL summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Severe thunderstorm warning out for parts of Iowa/Sauk/Dane, LEWP apparent on KARX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Today is looking like a must chase along the IA/MN border. Gonna do my best to be there but I cant leave IC any earlier than 1:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 There is a possible tornado at Mason City IA. Unfortunately, this is almost the worst radar coverage in Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Supercell near Marble Rock IA looks prime for a sig tor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Aw man, I coulda made it to Iowa today. That went just north of my storm on 7/14. I got too caught up in watching Hurricane Ida stuff after work and then took a nap, didn't pay attention to what was going on here locally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 As usual, the MS River acts as a brick wall for tornadic supercells coming east out of Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 13 hours ago, hlcater said: Today is looking like a must chase along the IA/MN border. Gonna do my best to be there but I cant leave IC any earlier than 1:30 Saw 5 tornadoes. Will post pics tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Tornado watch for east central MN into NW WI until 4pm. West central MN seeing heavy weather with winds up to 70 and 1.25" hail. Radar rotation just WNW of St. Cloud invoked a tornado warning. Looks like a squirrely few hours coming up just south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, Brian D said: Tornado watch for east central MN into NW WI until 4pm. West central MN seeing heavy weather with winds up to 70 and 1.25" hail. Radar rotation just WNW of St. Cloud invoked a tornado warning. Looks like a squirrely few hours coming up just south of me. Really hoping you guys get a good soaking rain event to snuff out the fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Extensive damage reported around Marble Rock, IA from yesterday evenings tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Just now, OrdIowPitMsp said: Really hoping you guys get a good soaking rain event to snuff out the fires. Had a little yesterday. Most of the rain stayed just west of the Arrowhead, but today looks much better for something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 Tuesday Sep 07 has potential. Still some variability between models but my guess is someone in the region will have good shear and cape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 26 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said: Tuesday Sep 07 has potential. Still some variability between models but my guess is someone in the region will have good shear and cape. September is an odd time for severe weather events in this region, but with the way August overachieved compared to May and June I suppose anything is possible at this point. Hell just within the last five years we've had tornado outbreaks in December and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 GRR Discussion: Quote Then we have the Tuesday event. We have a significant risk for strong to severe storms late in the day just ahead of the surface cold front. This system through will have a stronger surface system with it and so we will not only have the threat of strong thunderstorms but the surface winds, outside of thunderstorms could be strong enough to cause power outages since the trees all still have leaves on them yet. Winds could gust to near 40 mph at times during the mid to late afternoon just from the pressure gradient with the system itself. The front is moving into an area with 40 to 50 knots of deep layer shear and mixed layer capes over 2000 j/kg. There model sounding show fat cape to near 200 mb (EL). The storms will be moving southeast around 40 knots and have DCAPES near 800 j/kg. So, while there will be heavy rain with these storms, it will be brief due to the speed of the storms. So I do not see flooding as a big threat. Once the front is through we get into some really chilly air for a few days. We could have lake enhanced rain showers Wednesday with some water spouts and cold air funnels. Yes, the air will be that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avon Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 Here is a 12z 3k nam sounding in Grand Rapids for tuesday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 The wind field is great. Instability could be hit or miss depending on the cloud cover. While some of the hodos look tornado conducive, I think the storm mode will be predominantly linear, limiting any major tornado threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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