frostfern Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 5 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: What is it with May and June being dead in this region after 2016 (apart from 2019, which while the results weren't spectacular there were at least opportunities); with our regional chase "season" consisting of one day way closer to the cold season than seems right (2/28/17 and 12/1/18 being particularly egregious, also 3/28/20 which busted anyway compared to its ceiling) and one random day in the mid-late summer (7/19/18, 8/10/20)? What I really need is a high-end event that can be predicted with 48 hour notice. Driving south around both Lake Michigan AND Chicago traffic to reach rural Illinois in a single day is just impossible. I tried on 6/22/2016 but just couldn't get to the action in time. Don't know if there was even an actual tornado that day. As for local stuff, 4/7/2020 was an interesting day here in terms of storm structure and lightning, but it was all after dark. Most other times when there have been supercells around here, they were the HP blobs on an a slow moving W-E boundary... in like late August when the lake is warm. Those are pretty cool for their crazy after-dark lightning shows, but not much else. Actual tornados are mostly unpredictable land-spouts on days with visually uninspiring storm structures. They do damage, but you can't really chase them at all. Summer derecho season has been mostly dead since 2011. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 Was nice to see the marginal upgrade in my neck of the woods for tomorrow. Better than another two days of solid rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 MO/IA/IL AN ARC OF CONVECTION, INCLUDING WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY IN A ZONE OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT, JUST NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE STACKED LOW, AND ON THE EASTERN RIM OF ITS COLD-CORE REGION ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY -- INITIALLY FROM WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWESTERN MO ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MO AND PERHAPS INTO WESTERN IL -- SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD IN STEP WITH THE PREVAILING CYCLONIC-FLOW FIELD. AT LEAST MARGINAL TORNADO AND WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL EXISTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, DECREASING THIS EVENING OVER IA AND NORTHWESTERN IL. LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND SRH WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE NOTCH OF SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THAT WILL TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA, EAST-NORTHEAST OF AND IN STEP WITH THE LOW. MIDLEVEL DCVA/COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST WEAK BUOYANCY FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION, EVEN WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S AND TEMPERATURES NOT MUCH WARMER. THE MAIN CONCERN/ UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION AVAILABLE TO THE CONVECTIVE ARC, AND IN TURN, THE MAGNITUDE AND WIDTH OF BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LONGEVITY. BASELINE MLCAPE VALUES OF 300-700 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE IN A NARROW PLUME IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE ARC -- HIGHER WITH ANY SUSTAINED SLOTS OF SURFACE HEATING THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THE INFLOW REGION. MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AND IF THEY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE, A SMALL CORRIDOR OF GREATER UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES COULD BE ADDED WITHIN THE EXPANDED "MARGINAL" AREA IN A LATER UPDATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 temps already 60ish in MO with dewpoints 50-53 nice clearing out update ..MO/IA/IL LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP LOW OVER EASTERN KS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST IA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IA AND WESTERN IL. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING/HEATING OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN MO, WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 50F WILL COMBINE WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 400-800 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO. 12Z CAM GUIDANCE VARIES ON CORRIDOR OF MAX POTENTIAL, AND LOW CAPE VALUES LIMIT THE CONFIDENCE OF A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS, AN UPGRADE TO SLGT IS POSSIBLE AT 20Z IF A MORE FOCUSED AREA OF CONCERN DEVELOPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Kept it marginal with little or bo change to delineation, possible upgrade at 20Z Text posted above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 PM CDT TUE MAR 23 2021 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN IOWA...AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 231744Z - 231945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS, THOUGH A TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE SHOWN PARTIAL CLEARING WITHIN A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STACKED SURFACE/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS CLEARING HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE. DESPITE A MARGINAL INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW/MID 50S), RECENT RAP MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS AROUND 500 J/KG MLCAPE IS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MO. DEEPENING CUMULUS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SUPPORT THIS IDEA AND INDICATE BUOYANCY IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST TRANSIENT UPDRAFTS. INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE TO SOME DEGREE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. RECENT ANALYSES ALSO REVEAL MARGINAL, BUT SUFFICIENT, EFFECTIVE BULK WIND SHEAR ORTHOGONAL TO THE SURFACE TROUGH TO SUPPORT DISCRETE, ORGANIZED CONVECTION. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEP VIA DIURNAL HEATING, A WIND AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD MATERIALIZE. GIVEN SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WITHIN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR (PER REGIONAL VWPS), A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ROBUST STORMS. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FURTHER EAST INTO IL. HOWEVER, THIS LOCATION MAY SEE THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET AUGMENTS EFFECTIVE SRH. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..MOORE/HART.. 03/23/2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 The environment with this potential is really not that far off the environment from that day.Guidance the past day or so have really slowed things, with most of the potential being across MO/S IA now..Famous last words.Today is as marginal as marginal gets.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Not much clearing going on here. Sun came out for about ten minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Very conditional to say the least. Best chance of svr from eastern Mo trending se into southern Illinois this evening as moisture and shear advance northward a bit. 2000 update will be informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Several tornado warnings from southeast IA into eastern MO/western IL over the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 This says it all... Just a little more instability off from being way more.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: This says it all... Just a little more instability off from being way more. . And it is only March with our highest tor climo in May and June up our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cartier God Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 looks like a moderate tornado just passed to the north of mason city, illinois starting about 15 minutes ago. noticeable cc drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 FWIW, it looks as if the threat to the southern half of subforum is growing for Thursday. 06z HRRR popped some significant STP values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Probably tornado in far southeast IA last evening near Fort Madison. Sounds like DVN is going to survey it. https://www.weather.gov/dvn/summary_03232021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Models continue you to trend tomorrow’s system north. Not sure if separate thread is warranted. But latest models have significant sfc-1km srh values extending to i70 and Indiana is covered in UH tracks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 This second system will have way more juice to work with... and the GFS has finally fallen in line with a stronger system. These deepening systems with moisture are always dangerous this time of year. Would prefer if it was February and this was a snowstorm as the track is perfect for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 10 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Probably tornado in far southeast IA last evening near Fort Madison. Sounds like DVN is going to survey it. https://www.weather.gov/dvn/summary_03232021 They confirmed an EF-0. First nader of 2021 for the DVN cwa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Tomorrow's system could be a big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said: Tomorrow's system could be a big problem. Tornado outbreak coupled with these winds? Yikes!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 0z hrrr should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Our Indy friend seems a bit excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Our Indy friend seems a bit excited. I am. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Sounding for my area tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0258.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 I must admit I was not expecting a tornado watch to include southern IN and IL for this Thursday evening while I was focusing on action down in MS and AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 51 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Western and Central Kentucky Southeast Missouri Northeast Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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