CheeselandSkies Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Day 2 slight/marginal expanded eastward to include much of IA/S. WI/N. IL on 1730 update. Rather like yesterday, an area of intense and/or concentrated severe weather could occur, but it's impossible to pinpoint where, hence the meh probabilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 The HRRR late-CI bias is in full effect today given TS in the QC already. Its coverage is probably too low given the lake breeze boundary and strong MCV moving in during peak heating, but it overall seems to have the right idea for IL/IN this eve. Probably some pulse severe wind but mainly heavy rain given the weak shear and slow storm motions. Definitely some uncertainty tomorrow on the best overlap of shear and CAPE - SPC seems to be playing the farther S scenario for now which make sense if the effective front is shoved south by TS tonight. On the other hand, the 18Z HRRR is definitely showing a D-word scenario up into SE MN. IMO the training/flood setup tomorrow night has a pretty high ceiling in parts of the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 343 PM CDT WED AUG 25 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 400 PM CDT. * AT 343 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GENESEO, OR 7 MILES NORTH OF CAMBRIDGE, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... GENESEO AROUND 350 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 They better have a picture of that tornado, because they essentially tor warned a shower with no radar based rotation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 ED AUG 25 2021 ILC073-252115- /O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-210825T2115Z/ HENRY IL- 403 PM CDT WED AUG 25 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN HENRY COUNTY... AT 402 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WOODHULL, OR NEAR CAMBRIDGE, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR ULAH...BISHOP HILL...NEKOMA AND GALVA. HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND VEHICLES. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... KEWANEE, CAMBRIDGE, GALVA, WOODHULL, ALPHA, ANDOVER, LYNN CENTER, BISHOP HILL, OPHIEM, NEKOMA, KEWANEE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AND ULAH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 mesoanalysis indicates 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present across much of Illinois owing to strong heating and surface dewpoints in the 70s F. As the cluster of storms east of Davenport continues south and east, strong buoyancy will continue to support vigorous updrafts with occasional hail or damaging gust potential. CAM guidance is not overly bullish with any organization of the ongoing convection. However, hints at a weak cold pool developing suggest some clustering may occur as storms move southeastward. Across far western Indiana and eastern Illinois, a westward propagating cluster of storms may also pose an isolated risk for downbursts this evening. Little vertical shear is in place with multicell storms exhibiting pulse characteristics. However, as additional development takes place, collapsing storms may produce a few strong wind gusts into this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Why is SPC relying on CAMS in this meso discussion when CAMS have been horrible recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 At least Ricky is using observations rather than relying on CAMS As had noted in earlier update, the MCV slowly pushing east from the Quad Cities area will be the trigger mechanism for convection the rest of this afternoon into the evening. A small cluster initiated right over the Quad Cities within the past hour. Aside from near the new CI, the cumulus over most of the area isn`t all that impressive with the exception of a more congested look near the lake breeze convergence. Possible that the Quad Cities activity just pushes east with CI near it or the ascent from the MCV gradually triggers widely scattered convection through the late afternoon. Had noted a modest wind response from 850 mb up to 500 mb on the DVN VWP, so deep layer shear as the MCV transits the area could sneak up to as much as 20-25 kt. The CAMs have once again no help in the forecast, so utilizing observational trends for the most part. The anticipated scattered convection that develops should gradually building/spreading southeast through the evening. Main threat from the tallest cores will be localized wind gusts strong enough to down tree limbs (level 1 severe threat). PWATs up in the 1.7-1.9" range will certainly yield efficient rainfall rates, so a localized flooding threat is there as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Storms out west look pretty nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Feels comfortable here on other side of the lake breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 August is the new May 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: August is the new May read more, post less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Lake breeze micro popped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: read more, post less. I'm just saying it seems most of our severe weather has been happening in August in recent years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Tomorrow has decent potential pending what happens with tonight's convention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Appears another mcs is forming in northern Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Nothing noteworthy, but quality summer action here again at ORD over the past few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Choo chooing overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 7 hours ago, purduewx80 said: The HRRR late-CI bias is in full effect today given TS in the QC already. Its coverage is probably too low given the lake breeze boundary and strong MCV moving in during peak heating, but it overall seems to have the right idea for IL/IN this eve. Probably some pulse severe wind but mainly heavy rain given the weak shear and slow storm motions. Definitely some uncertainty tomorrow on the best overlap of shear and CAPE - SPC seems to be playing the farther S scenario for now which make sense if the effective front is shoved south by TS tonight. On the other hand, the 18Z HRRR is definitely showing a D-word scenario up into SE MN. IMO the training/flood setup tomorrow night has a pretty high ceiling in parts of the region. Tonight's 00z convection-allowing models show a general consensus for storms to develop in southern Minnesota and possibly continue eastward quickly. A derecho seems possible. Some severe weather could affect the Twin Cities. Some storms could even develop with 50 kt of deep layer shear, certainly rare in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Pic of severe warned storm to my south east this evening in Indiana. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 26, 2021 Author Share Posted August 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, vortex said: Pic of severe warned storm to my south east this evening in Indiana. I had a similar view... a little before 7 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 1 hour ago, vortex said: Pic of severe warned storm to my south east this evening in Indiana. Wow that’s pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Enhanced for wind today, now also Day 2 slight for Friday with 5% tor over northern Iowa/SE MN/WC WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Hoping to avoid the miss south, should be a solid day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: Hoping to avoid the miss south, should be a solid day Know all about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Hoping to avoid the miss south, should be a solid dayIf anything, it would be a miss well W or NW.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Idk man, that ia mcs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Idk man, that ia mcs Will either fade or be a hit later.Needs to survive the next 3 hours.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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