CheeselandSkies Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 The way the trough has evolved on modeling it's almost TOO negatively tilted, resulting in rather meridional 500mb flow, which seems to mostly lag behind the warm sector. Sunday apparently is now also of interest across the same general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted August 19, 2021 Share Posted August 19, 2021 2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: The way the trough has evolved on modeling it's almost TOO negatively tilted, resulting in rather meridional 500mb flow, which seems to mostly lag behind the warm sector. Sunday apparently is now also of interest across the same general area. Well, if anything that'll work better for me so I guess we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Curious to see if they find a brief spin up occured Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 They don't seem real gung-ho on any potential, but something to keep an eye on at least. These August days can be sneaky as we've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Unless the tail end festers, miss north.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Clear outflow boundary percolating southward through eastern Iowa with strong heating either side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 SPC's 1630 update in so many words: "We don't know what's going to happen." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 kinda festering imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Fairly complex scenario/evolution of things today... The first two MCS that have been moving across MN/WI early this morning into early this afternoon have sort of merged/organized into one complex, now affecting E WI...and likely eventually pushing into MI as well. Further west, I had mentioned earlier this morning that any local potential would depend on festering activity on the southern edge of the morning MCS's. This activity survived the morning and also has organized into an MCS along the MN/IA border. This MCS has a fairly good environment ahead of it, characterized by a solid instability/moisture/theta-e reservoir, quality shear with multiple waves/MCV's riding the north edge of the ridge, and a nice thermal ridge nosing in. Should see this MCS ride E or ESE, near/along the OFB in place from earlier activity across N IA/S WI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 To add to the above, SPC will need to add a slight risk to portions of IA/S WI/N IL with the the 20z SWODY1. If not for potential issues with the lead re-organizing complex in E WI and capping concerns, one could push for an ENH risk for that aforementioned corridor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 These storms are looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Chicago may be in line for some severe storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 ^ kiss of death 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 12 minutes ago, WaryWarren said: ^ kiss of death Of course mcs season is very unpredictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 map guy reincarnated but yeah looks good, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 To add to the above, SPC will need to add a slight risk to portions of IA/S WI/N IL with the the 20z SWODY1. If not for potential issues with the lead re-organizing complex in E WI and capping concerns, one could push for an ENH risk for that aforementioned corridor.I’ve seen enough to say an ENH is needed on the 20z update in a corridor across NE IA into N IL.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 61MPH gusts at Waterloo on the southern edge of the line. Apex further north is probably producing 70MPH+. RIJ showing up well on KDVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 I am rooting for the development of a good cold pool to push the storms se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Looks like Cedar Rapids gonna get screwed again, not that they need any more damaging winds. New warning just issued including northern Linn has the "considerable" damage threat tag. Meanwhile, bunch of little rumblers popping up and rolling over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indeedinger Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 60+mph winds in Independence for last 20 minutes. Quite a storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 This one will be blowing up phones: Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL 310 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021 IAC019-055-061-242045- /O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-210824T2045Z/ Buchanan IA-Dubuque IA-Delaware IA- 310 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN BUCHANAN...NORTHWESTERN DUBUQUE AND DELAWARE COUNTIES... At 309 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Strawberry Point to near Dundee to Masonville, moving east at 45 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR northeast Buchanan and northern Deleware county! HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. These severe storms will be near... Manchester and Edgewood around 320 PM CDT. Other locations in the path of these severe thunderstorms include Delhi, Greeley, Delaware, Oneida, Earlville, Colesburg, Dyersville, New Vienna, Worthington, Epworth, Farley, Holy Cross, Luxemburg and Bankston. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant property damage. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4267 9088 4241 9087 4235 9111 4240 9180 4253 9176 4264 9175 4265 9090 4267 9090 TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 277DEG 40KT 4265 9157 4252 9158 4245 9160 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Supercells on the N side of the outflow boundary are pretty interesting. Looks like a fairly narrow corridor of extreme low-level shear w/ NNE winds on the cold side of the boundary and SSW winds just above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 A few tor warned supercells in S WI now, though north of the southward moving OFB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Ricky with a nice update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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