Guest Anonymous Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Big cc drop showing up in ohio over mount pleasant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Anonymous Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 It's heading towards Rayland ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Anonymous Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Another cc drop west of wheeling ohio now tor warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 how do I post as guest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Solid surprise tornado outbreak across OH the past several hours, now working into PA too.Environment is lower end, but definitely supportive based on meso and short term analysis. It’s one of those enviro’s that will not work out 8/10 times, but the few times it does, production is efficient.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 MO maybe into W IL also looks interesting on Sunday, especially closer to the triple point/warm front. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, andyhb said: MO maybe into W IL also looks interesting on Sunday, especially closer to the triple point/warm front. I've been noticing that to but am scared to post in these threads anymore lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: I've been noticing that to but am scared to post in these threads anymore lol I do wonder just how far north that warm front will get with that high pressure to the north. Think the models may be a little too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 4 hours ago, andyhb said: MO maybe into W IL also looks interesting on Sunday, especially closer to the triple point/warm front. An ENH risk appears with 30% sig severe hatching for C MO into N AR for Sunday per SPC... SW IL in 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Sunday is looking serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Down to NE MO and back would be one hell of a trip for a day, I'd have to leave nice and early 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 30 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Drive to Bloomington and we can go together 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 8 hours ago, Malacka11 said: Down to NE MO and back would be one hell of a trip for a day, I'd have to leave nice and early If only Springfield weren't 15 hours away... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 24 minutes ago, nwohweather said: If only Springfield weren't 15 hours away... Do you think it would be worth a six-hour trip? Six hours one way of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Sunday definitely looks interesting. I always feel like these fall triple point set ups produce well in our neck of the woods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 Do you think it would be worth a six-hour trip? Six hours one way of courseYou’ll know Saturday night/Sunday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 Bit of a northward expansion on the day 2 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 30% hatched wind... 30% hail... and 10% hatched tornado on new Day 2 from SPC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 diggin it up Highly anomalous neg tilt s/w ejecting wednesday afternoon looks poised to provide a damaging wind/tornado threat in IA/MN. Storm motions look to be some of the fastest I've ever seen beneath a 100 knot LLJ, so we're basically in uncharted territory with that. Currently, models show warm sector airmass characterized by upper 50s dews by 00z, but are very aggressive on mixing. Given strength of advection and potential cloud cover, I'm wondering if dews end up closer to 60-61 in reality. That is probably the difference maker between what is a few weak tornadoes and a localized outbreak. Secondly, forcing/ascent is exceptionally strong, so despite good shear vectors off the pacific front, would expect a QLCS in northern portions of the boundary with perhaps a few discrete/semidiscrete supercell structures to exist on the southern flank. An extremely dynamic system is in store and is certainly one that bears watching. I dont know of any good analogs to the parameter space. As far as the ceiling of this event, concerns I have include aforementioned mixing, whether or not the MLCAPE available is enough to sustain an updraft in that hodograph, and potentially the tendency for mixed/linear modes from forcing. Secondly, and courtesy of the 100kt 700mb jet, non thunderstorm wind gusts of 60-80mph appear possible across much of Iowa, especially if the models do end up being correct on the degree of mixing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Not buying the severe threat on Wednesday yet. GFS and NAM have been terrible at reading the snow depth. I'll doubt the 8-12'' of snow will melt by Wednesday afternoon. Minnesota hasn't had severe weather in December and the latest tornado is November 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 6 hours ago, MNstorms said: Not buying the severe threat on Wednesday yet. GFS and NAM have been terrible at reading the snow depth. I'll doubt the 8-12'' of snow will melt by Wednesday afternoon. Minnesota hasn't had severe weather in December and the latest tornado is November 16. I have to wonder if the sharp snowpack gradient will help sharpen the warm front in some way. Broyles not impressed by Wednesday due to lack of instability, and he's historically been SPC's most bullish forecaster. That said it seems like SPC loses their nerve in recent years when it comes to hitting cool season events hard, which is unfortunate because in the same timeframe those seem to have been the ones producing high-impact outcomes more often than the high-hype, long lead time spring setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 There should already have been a day 3 slight risk across portions of NE/IA/MN.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 Very puzzling to not even have a marginal risk on the day 3 outlook, and could definitely argue for a slight. I wonder if part of this is because of the geographic area we are talking about. A December severe threat is pretty rare there. If the exact same parameters were forecast in the Ohio/Tennessee Valley, would there have been a risk area introduced? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 special mid day Day 3 update to add a marginal to Iowa/Minnesota and a part of western Wisconsin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 I had to check to make sure you weren't pulling a WaryWarren. Goss, stop lurking and start posting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 4 hours ago, madwx said: special mid day Day 3 update to add a marginal to Iowa/Minnesota and a part of western Wisconsin Haha Broyles overruled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Not so fast on Broyles. How dare you turn on him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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