Powerball Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Tornado Warning MIC037-057-071745- /O.NEW.KGRR.TO.W.0011.210707T1718Z-210707T1745Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 118 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021 The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Gratiot County in central Michigan... Northeastern Clinton County in south central Michigan... * Until 145 PM EDT. * At 118 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Elsie, or 6 miles northeast of St. Johns, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Elsie around 130 PM EDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4299 8458 4317 8458 4319 8437 4296 8437 TIME...MOT...LOC 1718Z 271DEG 16KT 4308 8449 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...1.75IN $$ NJJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Tor Warning for Winnebago County IL. At work in our Datacenter in Franklin Park, getting ready to head out and in that direction. Radar indicated rotation, amateur look at radar looks like the rotation is between Pecatonica and northwest of downtown Rockford, moving due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 I believe the president is in mchenry county right now, sitting US prez in vicinity of tor warned storm motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 32 minutes ago, luckyweather said: I believe the president is in mchenry county right now, sitting US prez in vicinity of tor warned storm motion I believe Gerald Ford's motorcade was in the O'Hare area around the time that a tornado passed by on 3/12/1976. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I believe Gerald Ford's motorcade was in the O'Hare area around the time that a tornado passed by on 3/12/1976. Yes, I remember reading about that. General t storms today.....maybe some more organized storms this weekend or just south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 President Reagan traveled to Fort Wayne to view the massive flooding that was occurring on March 16, 1982. A tornado touched down about 10 miles from Baer Field (now Ft Wayne International)10 minutes before Air Force One landed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Please, no politics. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 8 hours ago, WaryWarren said: Please, no politics. counterpoint: shame it (the tornado) missed (Ronald Reagan) 2 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Seems like all of our tor warnings in this region (MKX/LOT/eastern DVN/southern ARX CWAs) these days happen at random on marginal/no-risk days, and either are never confirmed or are landspouts/cold-air funnels. I mean, I don't expect sig tors to be exactly common but a few legit EF1-2s per year would be, I dunno...(used to be) normal? In retrospect, 2015-16 were really busy in northern IL with Rochelle, the two June 22nds and 3/15/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 9, 2021 Share Posted July 9, 2021 06Z GFS with next c*** tease bust set for next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 10, 2021 Share Posted July 10, 2021 Looks like main MCS/possible derecho is gonna track east and south of the ENH area. *Although, there is another one to the west in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 10, 2021 Share Posted July 10, 2021 On 7/9/2021 at 10:56 PM, CheeselandSkies said: Looks like main MCS/possible derecho is gonna track east and south of the ENH area. *Although, there is another one to the west in NE. OMA had a peak gust of 96mph with the derecho last night, which is the highest report I’ve seen. 84mph in Grand Island was the second highest. Then that smaller MCS that came into W. NE had a peak of 88mph at Alliance. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 GFS's coarse sim radar continues to hint at a possible southeastward-moving MCS/derecho in the upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. It's in NAM range as of this morning which is typically bonkers with the instability. We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 New Day 3... Quote Of particular note, in association with the trailing perturbation, is a consistent continuing signal in the various model output of a deepening lower/mid tropospheric low emerging from the central South Dakota Missouri Valley vicinity early in the day, before migrating east-northeastward into the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes region by late Wednesday night. This appears likely to be the result of convective enhancement, if not a completely convectively generated perturbation, and is forecast to be accompanied by intensifying wind fields in excess of 50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Great Lakes region... Models suggest that the convectively generated or enhanced perturbation will emerge near the nose of a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air, which may be contributing to modestly steep lapse rates at least initially. It is not clear how far east-northeast this plume will advect through the day, before being cut off by increasing thunderstorm development, and daytime heating ahead of the convection is not expected to yield particularly steep low-level lapse rates due to a relatively deep moist boundary layer. This could mitigate the magnitude of the damaging wind potential. However, the seasonably moist boundary-layer air may still contribute to sizable CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Coupled with a strengthening and expanding cold pool, along with the strengthening wind fields, there still appears potential for the evolution of a large and sustained, organized and forward (northeastward/eastward) propagating convective system. This could be accompanied by swaths of damaging wind gusts, and the environment may become conditionally conducive to a number of embedded mesovortices along the gust front, accompanied by the risk for tornadoes. If current trends in model output persist, and lingering uncertainties clear, severe weather probabilities will need to be increased in later outlooks for this period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Yet another TOR in LOT on a day where they're out of the marginal risk lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Unexpected... Quote 006 WWUS53 KLOT 121948 SVSLOT Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 248 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 ILC075-122015- /O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-210712T2015Z/ Iroquois IL- 248 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL IROQUOIS COUNTY... At 248 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Ashkum, moving northeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Iroquois County. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4085 8798 4089 8799 4094 8785 4085 8785 TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 235DEG 12KT 4088 8795 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ Kluber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Yet another TOR in LOT on a day where they're out of the marginal risk lmao Ninja'ed me dagnabit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Typical; we go from a miss south to a miss north. Could be interesting for someone: EDIT: HRRR is actually more intriguing with southern WI potential than the 3K NAM. Both suggest northeastern Iowa could be in play. Quote ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHEASTERN IOWA THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve across the middle Missouri Valley Wednesday and spread east-northeastward through the Upper Midwest by Wednesday night, accompanied by swaths of damaging wind gusts and the risk for tornadoes. ...Synopsis... The more prominent mid-level ridging likely will become confined to the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes by early Wednesday, with a couple of belts of westerlies in the northern mid-latitudes remaining generally zonal and progressive, particularly to the east of the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. East of the Rockies, the most significant short wave trough is forecast to migrate across southern Hudson Bay and adjacent northwestern Ontario into northwestern Quebec during this period. As it does, weaker troughing to its south-southeast is forecast to shift east of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley through the northern Atlantic Seaboard. Weaker troughing to its south-southwest is forecast to continue east of the northern Rockies, into the Upper Midwest by late Wednesday night. Of particular concern, in association with the trailing southern perturbation, the various model output continues to indicate the evolution of a deepening lower/mid tropospheric mesoscale low with convective development emerging from the middle Missouri Valley. This is generally forecast to migrate east-northeastward across the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes region by late Wednesday night, accompanied by intensifying southwesterly to westerly wind fields, in excess of 50 kt in the 850-500 mb layer. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region... Within the latest model output, spread remains evident concerning potential convective evolution for this period. This is one obvious point of lingering uncertainty. Additionally, it still appears that lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates may not become particularly steep, and this could potentially limit the magnitude of the damaging wind potential. However, models continue to indicate that the boundary layer will become seasonably moist, with surface dew points increasing into the lower 70s F. It appears that this may still contribute to sizable CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. The latest NAM, in particular, suggests that an evolving cluster of storms may be ongoing or develop early in the period, near or northeast of the Sioux Falls/Sioux City area. This would likely be in response to forcing for ascent associated with low/mid-level warm advection, downstream of the short wave trough digging east-southeast of the northern Rockies, near the nose of a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air. It appears that this activity will develop eastward during the day, with a trailing outflow boundary near the Minnesota/Iowa border area becoming the focus for the primary evolving convective cluster. Supported by forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level trough as it begins to pivot toward the upper Mississippi Valley, this may include supercells initially, before activity grows upscale. This is consistent with the 12Z ECMWF depiction of more rapid MCV intensification by late afternoon across southeastern Minnesota, before turning northeastward toward the Upper Great Lakes region through late Wednesday night. Given the forecast strengthening of the lower/mid tropospheric wind fields, the associated evolving convective system seems likely to be accompanied by increasing potential for swaths of damaging wind gusts across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa through much of the central Wisconsin by late Wednesday evening. It appears that this could continue into and across parts of upper and northern lower Michigan overnight. Given the boundary-layer moistening expected to precede the convective system, enlarging low-level hodographs may also become conducive to the genesis of a number of strengthening mesovortices along the gust front, accompanied by the potential for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 8 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Typical; we go from a miss south to a miss north. Could be interesting for someone: EDIT: HRRR is actually more intriguing with southern WI potential than the 3K NAM. Both suggest northeastern Iowa could be in play. I'm starting to get hyped too, buddy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 SPC’s current SWOD2 is terrible. They really need to stop solely forecasting off the NAM.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: SPC’s current SWOD2 is terrible. They really need to stop solely forecasting off the NAM. . I thought it was just Broyles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 55 minutes ago, WaryWarren said: I'm started to get hyped too, buddy. 12Z HRRR...MBY...that is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 12Z 3KM NAM is similar but a little quicker and more linear...ENH area is going to need to be adjusted south dramatically. Edit: Then it fires up Round 2 in IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Skip job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 43 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Skip job Eh, what happens here is conditional on the AM MCS and whether things recover over IA/MN. If those areas don’t recover, we are likely to be in the enhanced risk for winds tomorrow night, along with a pretty sig risk for flash flooding given the lingering boundaries that may be nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 ENH expanded south at 1730Z, as I expected based on 12Z CAMs. Eh, it is Broyles, though. The explicit mention of the NAM soundings gave it away before I even got to the signature. @Chicago Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 SPC still clueless. No mention at all of the large/loose MCS that will originate in the Plains tonight, making it through MN/IA/WI the first half of the day. Instead all we get is this... Thunderstorm development is expected to take place along the front during the morning to the north and northeast of the surface low, from northeastern Nebraska into northwest Iowa. These storms should be elevated initially and are forecast to move east-northeastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley during the afternoon. A surface-based convective cluster is expected to develop out of this activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: SPC still clueless. No mention at all of the large/loose MCS that will originate in the Plains tonight, making it through MN/IA/WI the first half of the day. Instead all we get is this... Do you expect this to kill the instability for the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Do you expect this to kill the instability for the day?Not per say.The issue is that it will heavily dictate what happens the rest of the day... Including where development occurs in the afternoon, and the severity.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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