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2021 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier
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 From KIND :ph34r:

 

There will be a severe threat with this convection late Thursday
evening into Thursday night. The moderate WAA will keep the
thermodynamic environment fairly conducive for longer. CAPE values
around 1000 J/kg are expected to maintain through around 04Z;
, diurnal cooling will begin to take over, limiting any
SBCAPE. Prior to this, the development of a nocturnal LLJ along with
a deepening surface low will create a fairly conducive environment
for isolated severe thunderstorms. Wind will be the primary threat
as by the time the thunderstorms reach central Indiana they should
be primarily linear. The strengthening LLJ and resulting speed shear
should help induce some RIJs within linear segments.

As diurnal cooling takes over, the thunderstorms will become
elevating reducing the wind threat greatly. This is likely to occur
shortly after the 04-06Z time period. The severe threat for the
entire region will greatly depend on when the thunderstorms reach
central Indiana.
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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:


Go.
 

The one thing that makes me hesitant still is the timing, I'm really not trying to get down there for nighttime storms and that seems to be the direction things are trending in, unless I'm sorely mistaken. 

Either way, I'll keep an eye on things. We'll see how everything shapes up.

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  • 3 weeks later...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
230 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SE MEDINAH            41.95N 88.03W
06/12/2021  M61 MPH          DUPAGE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED USING HANDHELD METER.        Getting closer to Chi town's first svr t storm of the year.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE  
241 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2021  
  
ILC031-043-122030-  
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210612T2030Z/  
DUPAGE IL-COOK IL-  
241 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2021  
  
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT  
FOR EASTERN DUPAGE AND SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNTIES...  
  
AT 240 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER JUSTICE, MOVING  
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS   
         HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH!   
  
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
CHICAGO, CICERO, BOLINGBROOK, ORLAND PARK, TINLEY PARK, OAK LAWN,  
BERWYN, WHEATON, OAK PARK, DOWNERS GROVE, LOMBARD, CAROL STREAM,  
CALUMET CITY, GLENDALE HEIGHTS, WOODRIDGE, CHICAGO LAWN, ROSELAND,  
SOUTH LAWNDALE, MIDWAY AIRPORT AND AUSTIN

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5 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
230 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SE MEDINAH            41.95N 88.03W
06/12/2021  M61 MPH          DUPAGE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED USING HANDHELD METER.        Getting closer to Chi town's first svr t storm of the year.

Either got sandblasted by the dust or pressure washed by the torrent.  

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ILC031-122030-  
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210612T2030Z/  
COOK IL-  
249 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2021  
  
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT  
FOR SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNTY...  
  
AT 248 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BRIDGEVIEW, OR  
OVER JUSTICE, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
SOURCE...ASOS. A 68 MPH WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT MIDWAY AIRPORT AT   
         2:48 PM CDT.   
  
IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE   
         HOMES, ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS.  
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
CHICAGO, CICERO, ORLAND PARK, TINLEY PARK, OAK LAWN, BERWYN, OAK  
PARK, CALUMET CITY, CHICAGO LAWN, SOUTH LAWNDALE, ROSELAND, MIDWAY  
AIRPORT, AUSTIN, BURBANK, LANSING, OAK FOREST, HARVEY, HOMER GLEN,  
BLUE ISLAND AND DOLTON.  

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2 hours ago, Stebo said:

Didn't get a chance to post here yesterday but I chased the storm that produced baseball hail in MI yesterday. Did a collective of the pictures and video I took: 

 

Cool.  I could see the towers way low on the horizon from here on the west side of the state.

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3 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

(Checks GFS and NAM)

Dear God, don't let me get suckered to central Lie-owa on a work night.

Overnight MCS will make me happy if it can just hold together long enough for a morning CG show.  I haven't seen a single CG this year.  

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Tomorrow looks to provide a solid opportunity for a real nice MCS across Iowa. 

Looking at potentially 5000+ MLCAPE, where spreads and mixing should favor cold pools and outflow dominance along with a 40kt LLJ. If it were me on desk, I'd have already introduced a 30% wind.

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5 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Tomorrow looks to provide a solid opportunity for a real nice MCS across Iowa. 

Looking at potentially 5000+ MLCAPE, where spreads and mixing should favor cold pools and outflow dominance along with a 40kt LLJ. If it were me on desk, I'd have already introduced a 30% wind.

All the ingredients are there for a high end wind threat imo

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Friday could have significant potential just looking at the progged wind fields overlapping a wide warm sector (pending Thursday's convection). Pretty classic WNW flow hodographs showing up in forecast soundings. Shortwaves with 70-80 kt 500 mb maxes this time of year don't tend to go quietly.

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6 hours ago, andyhb said:

Friday could have significant potential just looking at the progged wind fields overlapping a wide warm sector (pending Thursday's convection). Pretty classic WNW flow hodographs showing up in forecast soundings. Shortwaves with 70-80 kt 500 mb maxes this time of year don't tend to go quietly.

Andyhb piping in on a thread always tends to snag my attention.

 

I like the I-80 north area in IL for some sneaky wind potential. Areas further WNW, it’s not really a sneaky potential. 
 

Let’s hope shit stacks in our favor for once this year. I need the rain badly. 

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Here is an overlay of the NAM supercell composite parameter (which is normally overdone with CAPE) with 500mb wind barbs on Friday afternoon. The high supercell composite parameters are a result in excellent placement of CAPE/ SRH/ 0-6km shear. This seems like a very good setup for reasonably fast-moving severe storms for NW Ohio and into pretty much all parts of Ohio, and possibly starting off with severe storms in northern Indiana.

v9rJIuP.png

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5 hours ago, Chinook said:

Here is an overlay of the NAM supercell composite parameter (which is normally overdone with CAPE) with 500mb wind barbs on Friday afternoon. The high supercell composite parameters are a result in excellent placement of CAPE/ SRH/ 0-6km shear. This seems like a very good setup for reasonably fast-moving severe storms for NW Ohio and into pretty much all parts of Ohio, and possibly starting off with severe storms in northern Indiana.

v9rJIuP.png

really like the tornado threat for NW Ohio tomorrow to be honest. If that left over line from today's action lays down a boundary as it should, the ingredients are absolutely there. Some of the best lapse rates you'll ever see as well in this region and CAPE could be off the charts depending on when exactly the storms initiate. Could see this thing turning into quite the bow echo after storms start. I personally would head to Defiance tomorrow to storm chase 

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Don't sleep on today in C/N IA

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0739 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

   Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are expected late this afternoon into tonight for
   parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, from northern Iowa/southern
   Minnesota into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.  Wind gusts
   near or exceeding 75 mph, hail up to the size of baseballs, and a
   couple of tornadoes will be possible.

   ...Upper MS Valley this afternoon into tonight...
   A midlevel shortwave trough over the northern Plains/southern
   Prairie Provinces has crested the ridge, and heights will be
   suppressed east-southeastward toward the upper MS Valley and upper
   Great lakes by tonight.  An associated, weak surface cold
   front/trough will likewise move slowly southeastward across
   NE/IA/MN/WI through tonight.  The front and any lingering outflow
   boundaries from overnight convection will likely focus afternoon and
   evening thunderstorm development across southeast MN and along the
   IA/MN border, in phase with an embedded speed max moving eastward
   from SD (as evidence by the weak midlevel convection over SD this
   morning).

   The thermodynamic environment will feature steep midlevel lapse
   rates with a warm elevated mixed layer extending eastward from the
   Rockies, atop boundary-layer dewpoints in the 65-70 F range.  Strong
   surface heating in the wake of morning elevated convection will
   drive large buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg) and weakening
   convective inhibition as surface temperatures warm into the 90s. 
   Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt and the large CAPE will support a
   threat for supercells initially, with very large hail (up to
   baseball size) and damaging winds.  Any semi-discrete storms in the
   zone of stronger low-level shear/warm advection closer to the MS
   River will also pose a threat for a couple of tornadoes.  Otherwise,
   storms are expected to coalesce and grow upscale into one or more
   bowing clusters with the potential to produce significant damaging
   winds (greater than 75 mph) prior to the convection spreading east
   of the larger buoyancy late tonight.
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