WhirlingWx Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 I'm probably beating a dead horse here, but chaser convergence could be pretty brutal tomorrow. Just hoping that everyone keeps their head on a swivel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Moderate for hail would seem appropriate to me. Coin toss for 15 sig tor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Stays enhanced, but keeps the mention of a possible upgrade to MDT later on. Biggest question to them apparently is just how much low-level destabilization occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 10% hatched Tor probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 We have a MDT for 15% hatched tornado probabilities now. I think this is the first MDT of 2021 so far (I might be mistaken though). Seems like tornado season is starting to ramp up, especially if that MDT verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 The parameter space looks good, but will cells stay discrete for long enough remains the question hrrr dews for later..healthy area of low 60s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 12z HRRR is about as strong of a signal as you are going to get for a regional tornado outbreak... It shows multiple discrete, long-tracking supercells traversing the Texas panhandle throughout most of this afternoon and evening. Given the background environment, these supercells will almost certainly be producing significant tornadoes at some point during their life-cycles. Damn shame I couldn’t chase today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 So if today verifies then does that make the 2021 Plains season already better than 2020?* *verifies away from populated areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Is it a bad assessment to say this looks like 3/18/12 on steroids? This is crazy for March. Feels more like a day in May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 1 hour ago, stormdragonwx said: Is it a bad assessment to say this looks like 3/18/12 on steroids? This is crazy for March. Feels more like a day in May. Definitely a different setup, although the time of year and placement of the greatest tornado risk are similar. That event had a broader risk area up and down the high plains. The one similarity would be some bulging of the dryline in the Texas panhandle. A key difference is 3/18/12 had a surface low in Wyoming and here we’re looking at a surface low in the Texas panhandle with a focused threat area near and immediately east of the dryline bulge/triple point vicinity. Despite some residual cloudiness, CDS has shot up to 68/62 as of 17z. Vernon, TX is up to 75F already. Lubbock is 63F, but you can interpolate that 70s are not far away. Moisture quality is often a concern this early in the season, but not so much today. Mesoanalysis shows a broad area of >8 C/km 700-500mb lapse rates across NW Texas. Wind fields are very favorable. Even though mid/upper level winds are SW, the initiating boundary should be draped NNW-SSE. Surface winds are backed to southeasterly. Seems to be a fairly solid setup with the only caveat being some storm mode concerns. Even there, you could see a long lived supercell or two, even if cells get a bit clustered. Let’s see what 2021 has to offer. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Trending more aggressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 444 ACUS11 KWNS 131745 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131744 TXZ000-NMZ000-131945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CST SAT MAR 13 2021 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 131744Z - 131945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY... THE SEVERE THREAT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO NORTHWEST TX. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DISCUSSION...AS OF 1730Z, A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CLOVIS, NM. A DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX. STRONG HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AMID THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. DEWPOINTS ARE QUICKLY INCREASING INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. AS A RESULT, INHIBITION IS QUICKLY ERODING NEAR AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW, AND DEEPENING CU HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE DRYLINE. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING WEST-EAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ELEVATED, BUT MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR NEAR-SEVERE HAIL. AS THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO MIX EASTWARD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER WHERE LITTLE CAPPING REMAINS AND MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS. VWP DATA FROM KFDX SHOWS A LONG, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. INITIAL SPLITTING SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED. AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST TX, LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD BEGIN TO ENLARGE AS STORMS ENCOUNTER STRONGER BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE TORNADO POTENTIAL AS CELLS PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO A BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Impressive parameter space in place for today! I hope everyone stays safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Will throw this surface map in here for reference. 71/62 at CDS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0019.html First TOR watch of the day, 50/30 probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincy.wx Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 19 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Sat Mar 13 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of East-central New Mexico Northwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Initial discrete supercells should develop east-northeast from the east-central New Mexico and northwest Texas border region. Tornado and large hail will be the primary hazards.-50/30 probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 New MCD out for eastern TX panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 0165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021 Areas affected...eastern portions of the TX Panhandle and TX South Plains into far western OK Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 131952Z - 132145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue to increase through mid/late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop and move into the discussion area around 22z. Supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected and a watch will be issued in the next hour. DISCUSSION...A thick cirrus shield oriented southwest to northeast across the TX South Plains/Panhandle vicinity has limited stronger surface heating somewhat this afternoon. Nevertheless, low level moisture has continued to increase across the region on strong southeasterly low level flow. Steep midlevel lapse rates of 8.0-8.5 C/km are already in place over the region and are contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Regional VWP data continues to show favorable shear for supercell development. While low level hodographs remain somewhat small, elongated profiles above 2-3 km indicate favorable conditions for very large hail amid steep lapse rates, and hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears likely with the strongest cells. Fast-moving cells and strong low level winds also will support damaging wind gusts. A narrow corridor has developed from roughly Floyd County TX to Wheeler County TX where thinner cirrus has allowed for stronger heating. Surface temperatures are around 5-10 degrees warmer in this corridor per West TX Mesonet data compared to points to the west. Weaker inhibition is noted in 19z Mesoanalysis data, along with slightly stronger low level lapse rates. This corridor may become more favorable for longer-tracked supercells and strong tornadoes later this afternoon. Nevertheless, strong low level shear and a moist, unstable environment could support tornadogenesis in any semi-discrete cells through early evening. ..Leitman/Grams.. 03/13/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34859971 34459976 34159994 33890030 33800065 33730113 33810138 33920148 34050154 34820165 35550162 35910155 35970146 36080123 36150074 36150041 36030005 35879989 35509973 34859971 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Cell near Earth, TX could be the first major player of the day eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 New tornado watch has 80/60 probs for tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Supercell south of Dimmitt, TX is quickly getting its act together... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 First tor warning southeast of Dalhart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 One supercell looks like it will move into the SE Metro of Amarillo The city has been rather lucky with no direct tornado hits Over the years In fact one hit in 1949 but besides that not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, cheese007 said: First tor warning southeast of Dalhart Interestingly surface temperatures seem a bit cool in that area, but higher elevations don't need the same temperatures and dewpoints as lower elevations to get the same amount of SBCAPE, either. Temperatures on the SE side of that storm are in the mid-to-upper 50s, but it seems like 40s are closer to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Lowering on Brad Arnold's stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: One supercell looks like it will move into the SE Metro of Amarillo The city has been rather lucky with no direct tornado hits Over the years In fact one hit in 1949 but besides that not much That cell is warned now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Nazareth TX (southwest of Amarillo) - warning is indicated a confirmed tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 That southern cell will need to be watched too. I'm currently sitting in Clarendon, TX watching it as it marches up to the NE. Tulia and Silverton will have to watch this one. EDIT: Just went Tor Warned as I posted this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Storm mode a bit messy already. Wondering if some VBV is an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Tornado on Brad's stream! EDIT: Reed seems to have something as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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