Tallis Rockwell Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 he medium-range models begin the Day 4 to 8 period in good agreement. Model solutions show southwest mid-level flow from the south-central U.S. to the Northeast. An upper-level low is forecast over southern California. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible along parts of the front during the afternoon and evening. Although instability is forecast to be weak ahead of the front Thursday afternoon, strong deep-layer shear should be adequate for at least isolated severe storms. The severe threat should extend from northwest Texas northeastward across the Ozarks and into the lower Ohio Valley. Hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. On Friday, the models continue to be in good agreement. The solutions move the upper-level low into the Desert Southwest and have an upper-level ridge in the south-central states. The cold front is forecast to move slowly southward and may stall from the southern Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley during the day on Friday. Model forecasts suggest that thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms would be from Oklahoma eastward into Arkansas, where low-level moisture, deep layer shear and instability are forecast to be maximized. Although there is some spread among the GEFS members, on Saturday the deterministic solutions remain in relatively good agreement. The upper-level low is forecast to move into the Four Corners region as a mid-level jet moves into the southern Plains. Ahead of the approaching system, strong moisture advection is forecast in the southern Plains where a corridor of 60+ surface dewpoints appears likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms should be ongoing across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks throughout the day. An increase in thunderstorm coverage may take place in the late afternoon and evening as instability maximizes across the region. Model forecasts show a potential for moderate instability, widespread large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear from the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks. All severe threat hazards will be possible, but the magnitude and spatial extent of the severe threat will depend upon moisture return and the eastward timing of the system. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday and Monday, the upper-level low is forecast to move eastward across the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward from the Great Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Severe thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front both on Sunday and on Monday. At this time, models suggest that the greatest severe threat will be located in eastern parts of the southern Plains and in the Ozarks on Sunday. The severe threat should shift eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday. However, uncertainty concerning the timing of the system is substantial at this extended range in the forecast period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Broyles issued severe risks for D5 (Friday, 3/12), D6 (Saturday, 3/13), and D7 (Sunday, 3/14)... While none of these days particularly excite me as far as tornado potential goes at the moment, they will also almost certainly feature severe storms. At this moment, I actually like the KS/OK border on Wednesday for a shot at isolated supercells. Any storm that develops will have >1000J/KG CAPE to deal with, and ample deep-layer and low-level shear to boot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 I will say, we haven't really seen any significant outbreaks this year, going strictly by tornado counts. We've had damaging isolated events in the SE, but a general lack of tornadoes (and other severe weather) up to this point. I don't really see these three days ending up being a big outbreak (which I could, of course, end up wrong about). Similar to the post above by @jojo762, I do think that severe storms will almost certainly occur on these days though. Wouldn't take many tornadoes to clear the bar of "biggest outbreak" up to this point of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 So far this season a number of parameters are similar to 2011.....slow start to season and low number of tornadoes.....moderate La Nina, cold outbreak in far southern regions. I am somewhat apprehensive about what this spring may bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 19 hours ago, jojo762 said: Broyles issued severe risks for D5 (Friday, 3/12), D6 (Saturday, 3/13), and D7 (Sunday, 3/14)... While none of these days particularly excite me as far as tornado potential goes at the moment, they will also almost certainly feature severe storms. At this moment, I actually like the KS/OK border on Wednesday for a shot at isolated supercells. Any storm that develops will have >1000J/KG CAPE to deal with, and ample deep-layer and low-level shear to boot. Like I said on Stormtrack, could be a good opportunity for some shake-the-rust-off/break in the gear chases for people who live in/near the risk area, especially falling on a weekend and if you didn't get out much last year due to COVID-19 concerns. That's about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 9 hours ago, Indystorm said: So far this season a number of parameters are similar to 2011.....slow start to season and low number of tornadoes.....moderate La Nina, cold outbreak in far southern regions. I am somewhat apprehensive about what this spring may bring. That is exactly what worries me about this tornado season. Once things start to ramp up I am concerned that we will have some dangerous tornado outbreaks. I highly doubt we will have a tornado season as extreme as 2011, given that 2011 was essentially a “worst-case” scenario, but you can never rule that out, either. A more “tame” severe weather event (no severe storm is “tame” though), such as what might happen this upcoming weekend, might help get people into the mindset of severe weather preparedness and away from complacency, before the truly dangerous stuff comes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 11 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Like I said on Stormtrack, could be a good opportunity for some shake-the-rust-off/break in the gear chases for people who live in/near the risk area, especially falling on a weekend and if you didn't get out much last year due to COVID-19 concerns. That's about it. A lot of folks on twitter have really been hyping up Saturday. I get that its a mega trough with great timing, there are 60-64tds in place, and the LLJ is cranking, but beyond that the thermo profiles *really* leave a lot to be desired. If I lived in OKC I would almost certainly chase on Saturday to "get the rust off," but with me living up in KC, i'm not so sure its worth it -- especially since any target will likely be in W or SW Oklahoma. Tomorrow has also really fallen off too, so unless 12z models improve, that is looking like a no go. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 Saturday (and perhaps into Sunday) poses the best tornado threat IMO, as I think most of us have read/seen/observed. At this time (meaning that it could change), it appears like it will become linear by the time it gets to me here though, with perhaps a couple embedded tornadoes remaining possible. I know it's not for this subforum, but IA/MN/WI is really looking like an up-trending surprise setup along the triple point today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 2 hours ago, TexMexWx said: Saturday (and perhaps into Sunday) poses the best tornado threat IMO, as I think most of us have read/seen/observed. At this time (meaning that it could change), it appears like it will become linear by the time it gets to me here though, with perhaps a couple embedded tornadoes remaining possible. I know it's not for this subforum, but IA/MN/WI is really looking like an up-trending surprise setup along the triple point today. Did the models forget how to forecast real CAPE? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 11, 2021 Share Posted March 11, 2021 DFW fortunately sems out of the woods for the most part with the latest update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 HRRR doing HRRR things for the TX panhandle lol (tomorrow/Sat I believe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 00z CAMs are mildly impressive for Saturday, especially the HRRR (surprise surprise)... and Broyles will be doing the upcoming D2 outlook for Saturday — buckle up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 10 hours ago, jojo762 said: 00z CAMs are mildly impressive for Saturday, especially the HRRR (surprise surprise)... and Broyles will be doing the upcoming D2 outlook for Saturday — buckle up. 12z HRRR and NAM came in decently for the Panhandle, this is 00z Childress Texas from the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Wouldn't be shocked to see a 30 hail/10 tor/ENH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 10% sig tor/30% sig hail with the mention of a possible upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Our first enhanced tornado threat in the Spring season. This is a possible pre-storm environment near Childress TX tomorrow. There is some veer-back-veer, but many indicators that supercells could be impressive. As of right now, the NAM has values of about CAPE=2000 J/kg, SRH=250 m2/s2 and deep layer shear=70kt, for perhaps the most favorable area. Storms may move towards better SRH values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 HRRRing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 40/20 TOR probs on the first watch issued today, for parts of NM and TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 I kinda see this being another 3/18/12 day possibly. Saw beautiful storms and several tornadoes on that chase day. Almost in the same area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Un-Warned tor north of Shallowater, TX a bit ago... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Chasers confirmed it, warning came out just now. Abernathy, TX is the only real town in the polygon it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far east-central New Mexico Northwest Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 900 PM CST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 new possible tornado east of Lubbock, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 1 hour ago, TexMexWx said: Chasers confirmed it, warning came out just now. Abernathy, TX is the only real town in the polygon it seems. James Burch got really close to it 3-12-2021 Shallowater, TX Tornado DESTROYS Structure - Close Range DEBRIS!!! - YouTube Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Tomorrow screams multiple tornadic supercells for potentially a couple to a few hours, followed by a lengthy squall line in the evening. It is not a common occurrence in March in the Texas Panhandle to get 60s/near 60s dewpoints, let alone that moisture/thermo profile coinciding with highly impressive low-level and deep-layer shear profiles. Ultimately we all know the failure mode tomorrow is an insta-linear type event. Another potential failure mode is storms interacting too much due to the meridional mid/upper flow and resulting storm motions. CAMs do not seem to exactly like the idea of this going insta-linear tomorrow, but we shall see. Pretty nice semi-discrete tornadic supercell 40 miles ENE of Lubbock right now... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 high precipitation supercell (non-tornado warned now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 00z CAMs are very aggressive with tomorrow. Basically every single CAM in this suite shows a broken line of discrete supercells along the dryline in the afternoon. Fully expect a MDT risk from SPC for strong, potentially long tracking tornadoes and very large hail. Forecast soundings depict an especially anomalous setup for mid-March across the Texas Panhandle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 ARW WRF (which can run hot) is depicting a regional tornado outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now