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Severe Weather 3/12-3/15

Tallis Rockwell
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Tallis Rockwell

Tallis Rockwell

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Posted

day8prob.gif

he medium-range models begin the Day 4 to 8 period in good
   agreement. Model solutions show southwest mid-level flow from the
   south-central U.S. to the Northeast. An upper-level low is forecast
   over southern California. At the surface, a cold front is forecast
   to advance southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks and mid
   Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible along
   parts of the front during the afternoon and evening. Although
   instability is forecast to be weak ahead of the front Thursday
   afternoon, strong deep-layer shear should be adequate for at least
   isolated severe storms. The severe threat should extend from
   northwest Texas northeastward across the Ozarks and into the lower
   Ohio Valley. Hail and wind damage will be the primary threats.

   On Friday, the models continue to be in good agreement. The
   solutions move the upper-level low into the Desert Southwest and
   have an upper-level ridge in the south-central states. The cold
   front is forecast to move slowly southward and may stall from the
   southern Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley during the
   day on Friday. Model forecasts suggest that thunderstorm development
   will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon and
   evening. The greatest potential for severe storms would be from
   Oklahoma eastward into Arkansas, where low-level moisture, deep
   layer shear and instability are forecast to be maximized.

   Although there is some spread among the GEFS members, on Saturday
   the deterministic solutions remain in relatively good agreement. The
   upper-level low is forecast to move into the Four Corners region as
   a mid-level jet moves into the southern Plains. Ahead of the
   approaching system, strong moisture advection is forecast in the
   southern Plains where a corridor of 60+ surface dewpoints appears
   likely by afternoon. Thunderstorms should be ongoing across parts of
   the southern Plains and Ozarks throughout the day. An increase in
   thunderstorm coverage may take place in the late afternoon and
   evening as instability maximizes across the region. Model forecasts
   show a potential for moderate instability, widespread large-scale
   ascent and strong deep-layer shear from the southern Plains eastward
   into the Ozarks. All severe threat hazards will be possible, but the
   magnitude and spatial extent of the severe threat will depend upon
   moisture return and the eastward timing of the system. 

   ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
   On Sunday and Monday, the upper-level low is forecast to move
   eastward across the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front is
   forecast to move quickly eastward from the Great Plains into the
   Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Severe thunderstorms will be possible
   along parts of the front both on Sunday and on Monday. At this time,
   models suggest that the greatest severe threat will be located in
   eastern parts of the southern Plains and in the Ozarks on Sunday.
   The severe threat should shift eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee
   Valleys on Monday. However, uncertainty concerning the timing of the
   system is substantial at this extended range in the forecast period.
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Quincy
Quincy

Definitely a different setup, although the time of year and placement of the greatest tornado risk are similar. That event had a broader risk area up and down the high plains. The one similarity would

jojo762
jojo762

12z HRRR is about as strong of a signal as you are going to get for a regional tornado outbreak... It shows multiple discrete, long-tracking supercells traversing the Texas panhandle throughout m

stormdragonwx
stormdragonwx

Theres also a lot of haze and cloud cover that hasn't cleared off as expected. I find that concerning. Reminds me of May 20th, 2019.

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jojo762

jojo762

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Broyles issued severe risks for D5 (Friday, 3/12), D6 (Saturday, 3/13), and D7 (Sunday, 3/14)... While none of these days particularly excite me as far as tornado potential goes at the moment, they will also almost certainly feature severe storms. 

At this moment, I actually like the KS/OK border on Wednesday for a shot at isolated supercells. Any storm that develops will have >1000J/KG CAPE to deal with, and ample deep-layer and low-level shear to boot.

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WhirlingWx

WhirlingWx

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I will say, we haven't really seen any significant outbreaks this year, going strictly by tornado counts. We've had damaging isolated events in the SE, but a general lack of tornadoes (and other severe weather) up to this point. I don't really see these three days ending up being a big outbreak (which I could, of course, end up wrong about). Similar to the post above by @jojo762, I do think that severe storms will almost certainly occur on these days though. Wouldn't take many tornadoes to clear the bar of "biggest outbreak" up to this point of the year.

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CheeselandSkies

CheeselandSkies

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19 hours ago, jojo762 said:

Broyles issued severe risks for D5 (Friday, 3/12), D6 (Saturday, 3/13), and D7 (Sunday, 3/14)... While none of these days particularly excite me as far as tornado potential goes at the moment, they will also almost certainly feature severe storms. 

At this moment, I actually like the KS/OK border on Wednesday for a shot at isolated supercells. Any storm that develops will have >1000J/KG CAPE to deal with, and ample deep-layer and low-level shear to boot.

Like I said on Stormtrack, could be a good opportunity for some shake-the-rust-off/break in the gear chases for people who live in/near the risk area, especially falling on a weekend and if you didn't get out much last year due to COVID-19 concerns. That's about it.

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Sydney Claridge

Sydney Claridge

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9 hours ago, Indystorm said:

So far this season a number of parameters are similar to 2011.....slow start to season and low number of tornadoes.....moderate La Nina, cold outbreak in far southern regions.  I am somewhat apprehensive about what this spring may bring.

That is exactly what worries me about this tornado season.  Once things start to ramp up I am concerned that we will have some dangerous tornado outbreaks.  I highly doubt we will have a tornado season as extreme as 2011, given that 2011 was essentially a “worst-case” scenario, but you can never rule that out, either.

A more “tame” severe weather event (no severe storm is “tame” though), such as what might happen this upcoming weekend, might help get people into the mindset of severe weather preparedness and away from complacency, before the truly dangerous stuff comes along.

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jojo762

jojo762

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11 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Like I said on Stormtrack, could be a good opportunity for some shake-the-rust-off/break in the gear chases for people who live in/near the risk area, especially falling on a weekend and if you didn't get out much last year due to COVID-19 concerns. That's about it.

A lot of folks on twitter have really been hyping up Saturday. I get that its a mega trough with great timing, there are 60-64tds in place, and the LLJ is cranking, but beyond that the thermo profiles *really* leave a lot to be desired. If I lived in OKC I would almost certainly chase on Saturday to "get the rust off," but with me living up in KC, i'm not so sure its worth it -- especially since any target will likely be in W or SW Oklahoma.

Tomorrow has also really fallen off too, so unless 12z models improve, that is looking like a no go.

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WhirlingWx

WhirlingWx

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Saturday (and perhaps into Sunday) poses the best tornado threat IMO, as I think most of us have read/seen/observed. At this time (meaning that it could change), it appears like it will become linear by the time it gets to me here though, with perhaps a couple embedded tornadoes remaining possible.

I know it's not for this subforum, but IA/MN/WI is really looking like an up-trending surprise setup along the triple point today.

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Chinook

Chinook

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2 hours ago, TexMexWx said:

Saturday (and perhaps into Sunday) poses the best tornado threat IMO, as I think most of us have read/seen/observed. At this time (meaning that it could change), it appears like it will become linear by the time it gets to me here though, with perhaps a couple embedded tornadoes remaining possible.

I know it's not for this subforum, but IA/MN/WI is really looking like an up-trending surprise setup along the triple point today.

Did the models forget how to forecast real CAPE?

d5r1gjF.jpg

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Chinook

Chinook

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Our first enhanced tornado threat in the Spring season.

This is a possible pre-storm environment near Childress TX tomorrow. There is some veer-back-veer, but many indicators that supercells could be impressive. As of right now, the NAM has values of about CAPE=2000 J/kg, SRH=250 m2/s2 and  deep layer shear=70kt, for perhaps the most favorable area. Storms may move towards better SRH values.

fg7L950.png

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jojo762

jojo762

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Tomorrow screams multiple tornadic supercells for potentially a couple to a few hours, followed by a lengthy squall line in the evening.

It is not a common occurrence in March in the Texas Panhandle to get 60s/near 60s dewpoints, let alone that moisture/thermo profile coinciding with highly impressive low-level and deep-layer shear profiles.

Ultimately we all know the failure mode tomorrow is an insta-linear type event. Another potential failure mode is storms interacting too much due to the meridional mid/upper flow and resulting storm motions. CAMs do not seem to exactly like the idea of this going insta-linear tomorrow, but we shall see.

Pretty nice semi-discrete tornadic supercell 40 miles ENE of Lubbock right now...

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jojo762

jojo762

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00z CAMs are very aggressive with tomorrow. Basically every single CAM in this suite shows a broken line of discrete supercells along the dryline in the afternoon. Fully expect a MDT risk from SPC for strong, potentially long tracking tornadoes and very large hail. 
 

Forecast soundings depict an especially anomalous setup for mid-March across the Texas Panhandle...

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