OBS-NOWCAST any snow-ice-rain for the NYC sub forum Tuesday March 16, 2021

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

This is March. It's a wild, volatile month. Snow threats can pop up very quickly this time of year. We have to watch both threats for this coming week. It's most likely that NYC will see little to no snow accumulation this week, but it would be foolish to completely rule out something more significant. March is known for wild swings and snow events that are difficult to predict. And we can dream all we want. Most of us enjoyed the 70 degree weather, but it would be nice to get one last snow event to finish off the season. Especially since NYC is just shy of the 40 inch mark. It would be nice to see NYC get to 40 inches. We just need a small 2 inch snow event to do it.

Agree

Snowman19 is always too quick to dismiss everything

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

This is March. It's a wild, volatile month. Snow threats can pop up very quickly this time of year. We have to watch both threats for this coming week. It's most likely that NYC will see little to no snow accumulation this week, but it would be foolish to completely rule out something more significant. March is known for wild swings and snow events that are difficult to predict. And we can dream all we want. Most of us enjoyed the 70 degree weather, but it would be nice to get one last snow event to finish off the season. Especially since NYC is just shy of the 40 inch mark. It would be nice to see NYC get to 40 inches. We just need a small 2 inch snow event to do it.

whenever you get a strong HP in southeast Canada this time of the year into early April and a storm system going by to our south its time to  monitor it. Example April 7th , 2003. 

Snow and ice storm, April 7, 2003 - Surface Maps (raymondcmartinjr.com)

[MJO812]

Gfs came north 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs came north 

one possibility is this starts as rain and as the HP drifts south from Canada  colder air filters in the precip changes to snow north to south a long ways to go with this one

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

one possibility is this starts as rain and as the HP drifts south from Canada  colder air filters in the precip changes to snow north to south a long ways to go with this one

High means business

This isnt close to the final solution

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

one possibility is this starts as rain and as the HP drifts south from Canada  colder air filters in the precip changes to snow north to south a long ways to go with this one

Cmc is also further north

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

Snowman19 is always too quick to dismiss everything

Friday is not turning into a NYC snowstorm, mark my words. It’s over

[wdrag]

Will begin a low confidence thread for 19-early 20 by 630A. Below is my own view (lower than usual confidence) on what happens late Tuesday-early Wednesday. 

I78-I84 corridors-periods of light snow, sleet or freezing rain likely begin Tuesday afternoon or evening and ends as rain Wednesday morning. Modeling uncertain-so my confidence on how much ice/snow is less than usual. There is a pretty good chance of at least spotty icing in PA/NJ that may require treatments. If it's snow, just a slightest covering to maybe an inch or 2 but can't promise all snow except CT/MA. I can see the need for some caution traveling untreated surfaces Tuesday night-early Wednesday.  One model group: The GFS v15/16 have been hitting the snow harder along w the GEFS, for se NYS/extreme nw NJ/extreme ne PA with potential for 4" high terrain, if no ice.  One of my concerns is ice in ne PA/nw NJ. 

For NYC-LI: Even with snow snow or sleet in the air, NYC may not measure anything more than T if it's light.  If it manages the 00z/15 GFS scenarios, then yes, minor amount there. Better chance spotty minor amounts LI (under 1"). Follow the models.  I'd like to see models, other than the GFS, become more robust. For now, the 00z/15 GFS solutions are outlier heavier outcomes.  I don't know what to believe but the uncertainty on qpf volume, as well as thermal profiles suggest conservative expectations. 

[weatherpruf]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Friday is not turning into a NYC snowstorm, mark my words. It’s over

Almost anyone can make that prediction in March around here and be correct. It's the outlier you have to be on guard for in March....even early April.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Almost anyone can make that prediction in March around here and be correct. It's the outlier you have to be on guard for in March....even early April.

If the pattern supports snow then it'll snow. We've seen plenty of snow in March recently.

However currently the pattern is very marginal for anything more than a few snow showers or graupel. 

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If the pattern supports snow then it'll snow. We've seen plenty of snow in March recently.

However currently the pattern is very marginal for anything more than a few snow showers or graupel. 

If we had a March, 2018 setup right now, I’d be on board for an anomalous late March snowstorm in the metro area....alas we have nothing even remotely close to that this time

[NEG NAO]

12Z NAM

[MJO812]

End of the week storm is a rain event for the area with snow in New England. 

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

End of the week storm is a rain event for the area with snow in New England. 

12z Euro has accumulating snow for the end of the week storm, especially for central-southern NJ. Still something we have to keep an eye on. Euro also gives a little snow for the tuesday event, similar to what 12z NAM is showing.

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

End of the week storm is a rain event for the area with snow in New England. 

to start

[LibertyBell]

On 3/14/2021 at 9:01 PM, NEG NAO said:

whenever you get a strong HP in southeast Canada this time of the year into early April and a storm system going by to our south its time to  monitor it. Example April 7th , 2003. 

Snow and ice storm, April 7, 2003 - Surface Maps (raymondcmartinjr.com)

It also happened multiple times in 1996.  March and April.  As a matter of fact the specific scenario you described happened (started as rain, high pressure pressed in from the north, it changed to freezing rain, sleet and then snow from north to south.)  Watching the transition was pretty exciting, as it happened during the day.

 

[wdrag]

626A/16: Not much. 00z/16 EC op and 06z/gfs v16 (para) are best chance of a little snow this afternoon-night, mainly n of I80.  Doubt if NYC/LI can do more than T of snow-sleet if those elements occur. nw NJ might see spotty freezing rain showers tonight. Thread now converted to OBS-NOWCAST if and as needed. 

[LibertyBell]

0.5-1 inch down to the coast tonight?

 

[wdrag]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

0.5-1 inch down to the coast tonight?

 

wish.... cant get that exuberant. at 13z... it appears to me the GFS para (v16), RGEM, EC, 09z HRRR have had the best handle.  Flurries all the way down to just no ILG and it appears to me some of our members in w NJ should have a brief snow shoer or ice pellets sometime near 1030-1130A.   After that?  am guessing emphasis on whatever wintry elements occur will shift to the I80 region northward. 

[wdrag]

fwiw... flurries via mPING near Somerville, also e central PA into nw NJ.  My last post for 3 hours. 

[LVwhiteout]

6 hours ago, wdrag said:

fwiw... flurries via mPING near Somerville, also e central PA into nw NJ.  My last post for 3 hours. 

Had some snow flurries for about an hour between about 11AM - 12

[gravitylover]

I think I saw 7 flakes this afternoon. Woot

[sferic]

@crossbowftw3  half an inch now in Liberty with moderate snow  and 26.4 degrees

[Nibor]

Sleet in Astoria. 

[Rjay]

[STORMANLI]

Snow pellets 626pm- 725pm left a trace in South Commack

[Juliancolton]

Picked up 0.4" of snow and grauple earlier this evening

[wdrag]

5 of the 6 OKX CLI locations had a T of snow yesterday (probably sleet or sleet-snow mix). Interesting bands of heavier qpf se NYS/CT and  near-just s of I78 .Wonder if any zl- LI NNJ this morning? Anyway, should b almost done.  

CoCoRaHs added at 417P for this largely non-event, but at least the first widespread sleet/snow Trace's this March and back to at least Feb 27. Definitely short of what I expected to be an advisory event when threaded the 7th.  At least modeling can tell when there is a risk 9 days in advance. Thread discussion should fill in any questions on modeling intent.  GEFS/GFS initially far too far south, and probably a day or so fast. Otherwise V16 at times far too robust in the later stages of the approach to the 16th. 

[wdrag]

Updated w CoCoRAHS snow-sleet accums. 

[LibertyBell]

On 3/16/2021 at 6:25 PM, gravitylover said:

I think I saw 7 flakes this afternoon. Woot

Isn't that supposed to be a "Woot Woot"?  Or is 7 flakes not enough for the second "Woot"? ;-)