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Spring/Summer 2021 Banter/Complaint Thread


madwx
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14 hours ago, Powerball said:

lol at DTX and GRR.

Even thr SW US has it beat for the last Tornado Warning.

GRR missed a random EF0 spinup on April 10 though.  Most tornado warnings in my area happen after the fact and not under a watch.  It's always some non-supercell fluke spinup.

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GFS - Gobs of Forecasted Snow
NAM - Newfangled Adding Machine
RAP - Rarely Accurate Prediction
HRRR - Highly Ridiculous Rat Race
UKMET - Uncle Kevin's Mediocre Electric Telegraph
ECMWF - Extra Carbon Makes Warming Faster
GDPS - Greatly Disappointing Punch-card System
RDPS - Rightfully Disavowed Prediction Service
GFDL - Glorified Forecast of Downright Lunacy
HMON - Hurricanes Make Otters Nervous
HWRF - Home Windows Rarely Fail (except when hit by a hurricane)
WRF-NSSL - World (w)Restling Federation Never Slurp Soup Loudly

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55 minutes ago, Chinook said:

GFS - Gobs of Forecasted Snow
NAM - Newfangled Adding Machine
RAP - Rarely Accurate Prediction
HRRR - Highly Ridiculous Rat Race
UKMET - Uncle Kevin's Mediocre Electric Telegraph
ECMWF - Extra Carbon Makes Warming Faster
GDPS - Greatly Disappointing Punch-card System
RDPS - Rightfully Disavowed Prediction Service
GFDL - Glorified Forecast of Downright Lunacy
HMON - Hurricanes Make Otters Nervous
HWRF - Home Windows Rarely Fail (except when hit by a hurricane)
WRF-NSSL - World (w)Restling Federation Never Slurp Soup Loudly

RAP- Really Asinine Predictions

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

GFS - Gobs of Forecasted Snow
NAM - Newfangled Adding Machine
RAP - Rarely Accurate Prediction
HRRR - Highly Ridiculous Rat Race
UKMET - Uncle Kevin's Mediocre Electric Telegraph
ECMWF - Extra Carbon Makes Warming Faster
GDPS - Greatly Disappointing Punch-card System
RDPS - Rightfully Disavowed Prediction Service
GFDL - Glorified Forecast of Downright Lunacy
HMON - Hurricanes Make Otters Nervous
HWRF - Home Windows Rarely Fail (except when hit by a hurricane)
WRF-NSSL - World (w)Restling Federation Never Slurp Soup Loudly

GFS - GooFuS

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On 5/29/2021 at 4:53 PM, cyclone77 said:

I remember when you could go to the SPC page and see something that was actually kind of exciting, you know, a slight risk on day 3 or something.  I think we've been in a marginal twice this year.  Talk about a lame-ass year. :sleepy:

No severe or Tor warnings all year for DTX, its been almost 6 years since our last tor watch (June 21st 2015). If this is the new normal then I want out.

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It's shocking that 1993 was actually just as slow, severe-wise, as this year up to this point.  All I remember about '93 was how it stormed and rained constantly all summer.  I was golfing a lot that summer and the courses were always flooded.  It seems '93 was pretty dead, but then Mother Nature flipped the switch in early June.

Unfortunately, 2021's line will likely end up somewhere in the blank area at the bottom.

severe_1993.thumb.png.71570532ed819c80966b10d3a2c6ceee.png

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35 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It's shocking that 1993 was actually just as slow, severe-wise, as this year up to this point.  All I remember about '93 was how it stormed and rained constantly all summer.  I was golfing a lot that summer and the courses were always flooded.  It seems '93 was pretty dead, but then Mother Nature flipped the switch in early June.

Unfortunately, 2021's line will likely end up somewhere in the blank area at the bottom.

severe_1993.thumb.png.71570532ed819c80966b10d3a2c6ceee.png

Look at those two huge vertical jumps in 2006 in March and April.  Both were over twice what last year's August derecho added up to.  That's pretty insane.

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51 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Look at those two huge vertical jumps in 2006 in March and April.  Both were over twice what last year's August derecho added up to.  That's pretty insane.

This chart reaffirms the perception in my memory that 2008 was awesome. Unfortunately I was 22, just out of college, and didn't have the financial resources to chase.

I was surprised to see 2006 so high, since that is almost universally reviled as an awful chase season. Your post explains things, guessing that was the outbreaks on 3/12 and 4/2 responsible for most of those?

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11 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

This chart reaffirms the perception in my memory that 2008 was awesome. Unfortunately I was 22, just out of college, and didn't have the financial resources to chase.

I was surprised to see 2006 so high, since that is almost universally reviled as an awful chase season. Your post explains things, guessing that was the outbreaks on 3/12 and 4/2 responsible for most of those?

Number of severe warnings doesn't really line up with chaseability.   A lot of those warnings probably come from overnight MCS.

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Random banter. Everyone knows I am the climo guy and I love looking at old climate data. I'm especially a sucker for analyzing months that were anomalously warm or cold, wet or dry, snowy or snowless. However, the May that just ended really made me think. May locally went from temps way colder than average, to way warmer than average, and ended way colder than average. What was the end result? A month that was slightly colder than average, one that would certainly not stick out as an extreme when glancing at monthly mean temperatures. I need to start looking at months that finished relatively close to the mean average and learn about some potentially interesting weather events I have previously overlooked!

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8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Random banter. Everyone knows I am the climo guy and I love looking at old climate data. I'm especially a sucker for analyzing months that were anomalously warm or cold, wet or dry, snowy or snowless. However, the May that just ended really made me think. May locally went from temps way colder than average, to way warmer than average, and ended way colder than average. What was the end result? A month that was slightly colder than average, one that would certainly not stick out as an extreme when glancing at monthly mean temperatures. I need to start looking at months that finished relatively close to the mean average and learn about some potentially interesting weather events I have previously overlooked!

I would guess that May 2020 at DTW was almost a carbon copy, it was at PIT.

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Just now, michsnowfreak said:

Very similar indeed, although 2020 finished 1.3° colder.

I would presume being buoyed by a first half that was historically cold (as opposed to this year, which was just prolonged non-historic cold) can do that.

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1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Nature has a way of balancing things out so I would be on the lookout for some extremely active years soon

See below

21 hours ago, Stebo said:

No severe or Tor warnings all year for DTX, its been almost 6 years since our last tor watch (June 21st 2015). If this is the new normal then I want out.

If balancing is coming we need 1953-1956-1965-1974 in a row.

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5 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

It'll balance out. When is the question :(

Someday.  Sometime.

Fwiw, I think the climate modeling was suggestive of fewer tornado days in the future, but more tornadoes on those days so perhaps it would sort of be a wash.  But don't quote me on that, and even if I am remembering correctly, I don't know about the projection for severe weather generally.  

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