Spring/Summer 2021 Banter/Complaint Thread

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

It's May 10th, and ORD has been above normal for the month in 3 of the 4 completed months this year. May is not banging out super low temps which will severely skew the average thus far, and I have no reason to believe it wont follow the general above average trend as well. 

I would think a "below average" call for really any portion of the summer months is likely a long shot. 

I think May finishes below avg, very confident in that. Summer...who knows.

[michsnowfreak]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Rochester NY +2.5"

Syracuse NY +4.0"

Buffalo saw the lowest increase, definitely a trend though as almost everyone went up. 

 

Just now, TimB84 said:

Pittsburgh +2.7

Thanks guys. I am updated my post. Let me know of any others I missed. 

[Hoosier]

20 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

Cool, thanks. Like I said in the other post, I know they played with the numbers a bit, but going up almost a full degree for every month is quite...um, interesting. Of course, maybe the values on xmACIS aren't the real/official numbers or something. Don't know...

Yeah I'm curious to find out why there are discrepancies of that magnitude.  In theory, the official averages being higher than xmACIS would actually make it a little easier to obtain colder than average months going forward.

[TimB]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah I'm curious to find out why there are discrepancies of that magnitude.  In theory, the official averages being higher than xmACIS would actually make it a little easier to obtain colder than average months going forward.

On the one hand, I can get behind that. On the other hand, moving the goalposts cheapens the value of the increasingly rare colder than average month.

[Chicago WX]

25 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah I'm curious to find out why there are discrepancies of that magnitude.  In theory, the official averages being higher than xmACIS would actually make it a little easier to obtain colder than average months going forward.

Lol, yes. But with ORD, still doubtful.
 

I’m not sure why I even ran the numbers. But when I did, and compared them to the new normal numbers, I was a bit surprised. A tenth or two here or there, sure. But almost a full degree every month, questionable at best...

[Indystorm]

And I am perplexed as to why the deep Southern states continue to get wave after wave of svr storms when I would have thought as we approach mid May the Plains and Midwest would become more active as is usually the case.

[madwx]

1 hour ago, Indystorm said:

And I am perplexed as to why the deep Southern states continue to get wave after wave of svr storms when I would have thought as we approach mid May the Plains and Midwest would become more active as is usually the case.

There is a large trough over the central US right now that is pushing the jet stream to the south making Texas and the SE the preferential spot for storms 

[StormfanaticInd]

5 minutes ago, madwx said:

There is a large trough over the central US right now that is pushing the jet stream to the south making Texas and the SE the preferential spot for storms 

Which is extremely unusual. It has been frustratingly hard to even get a regular thunderstorm ⛈ this spring 

[Powerball]

5 hours ago, madwx said:

There is a large trough over the central US right now that is pushing the jet stream to the south making Texas and the SE the preferential spot for storms 

Upper 50s / low 60s highs and winter-like gloom in mid-May?

You can have it. I'm beyond ready for a death ridge. 

[frostfern]

5 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Which is extremely unusual. It has been frustratingly hard to even get a regular thunderstorm ⛈ this spring 

And when the ridge finally comes its one of those super-amplified dry ones that just tilts in from the northwest.  Goes from cold and boring to warm and boring.  Seems low soil moisture in the western US due to AGW has made this a permanent pattern.  North-displaced zonal jet patterns are hard to come by.  Used to happen all the time in the 1990s.

[TimB]

4 hours ago, frostfern said:

And when the ridge finally comes its one of those super-amplified dry ones that just tilts in from the northwest.  Goes from cold and boring to warm and boring.  Seems low soil moisture in the western US due to AGW has made this a permanent pattern.  North-displaced zonal jet patterns are hard to come by.  Used to happen all the time in the 1990s.

And therein lies the problem. Most non-weather people (and especially anti-science people) won’t even notice that there is less severe weather in the Midwest than there used to be, let alone see it as an effect of AGW. Even if they do, this particular issue isn’t one that will make people say “we MUST do something.”

On that subject, we’ve been fortunate not to have heatwaves like the one in Europe in 2019 literally frying people to death, but sadly it’ll probably take a few of these in quick succession to really get Americans on board with doing our part to stop AGW (and even that might not change a lot of people’s minds), and by then it’ll be way too late.

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, TimB84 said:

And therein lies the problem. Most non-weather people (and especially anti-science people) won’t even notice that there is less severe weather in the Midwest than there used to be, let alone see it as an effect of AGW. Even if they do, this particular issue isn’t one that will make people say “we MUST do something.”

On that subject, we’ve been fortunate not to have heatwaves like the one in Europe in 2019 literally frying people to death, but sadly it’ll probably take a few of these in quick succession to really get Americans on board with doing our part to stop AGW (and even that might not change a lot of people’s minds), and by then it’ll be way too late.

See, this is a tricky one, and it may depend on how one defines the Midwest.  Going back over, say, the last 10 years, I don't really see a signal for less severe weather regionwide.  Maybe if you pick out certain states or look at certain seasons, but that would take some time to look into.

[TimB]

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

See, this is a tricky one, and it may depend on how one defines the Midwest.  Going back over, say, the last 10 years, I don't really see a signal for less severe weather regionwide.  Maybe if you pick out certain states or look at certain seasons, but that would take some time to look into.

Yeah, it’s not as straightforward as other climate change-related issues and I agree with you on that. Especially considering that the “Midwest” includes Cleveland, Ohio and Dodge City, Kansas and everything in between, and obviously those two locations have two completely different climates. I’m just saying even if we could definitively say “climate change has ruined severe weather outbreaks by making them less common,” I don’t think anyone other than meteorologists and severe weather enthusiasts would shed a tear or be compelled to act.

[Harry Perry]

Yeah this month has been a toilet flush. Aside from the 3-4 days that were in the 70’s... No meaningful rain, just nuisance ULL garbage with stiff northeast winds and temps about 20° below normal. 
 

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

See, this is a tricky one, and it may depend on how one defines the Midwest.  Going back over, say, the last 10 years, I don't really see a signal for less severe weather regionwide.  Maybe if you pick out certain states or look at certain seasons, but that would take some time to look into.

 I don't even know how you would Figure that out, I know I have no idea how to. All I can say is that locally severe weather has definitely decreased but it does not bother me.

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I don't even know how you would Figure that out, I know I have no idea how to. All I can say is that locally severe weather has definitely decreased but it does not bother me.

I would guess something like looking at a particular WFO and seeing how many severe thunderstorm warnings or tornado warnings were issued, or combing through years and years of SPC watches and storm reports, to the extent that any of this stuff is on the internet for a significantly long period of time. It sounds like it would be tedious to impossible.

[michsnowfreak]

On 5/10/2021 at 3:34 PM, TimB84 said:

On the one hand, I can get behind that. On the other hand, moving the goalposts cheapens the value of the increasingly rare colder than average month.

Despite a slight overall rise in temperature there are still plenty of colder than average months. If you make "average" a degree warmer than it really is, then you will really see colder than average months.

[TimB]

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Despite a slight overall rise in temperature there are still plenty of colder than average months. If you make "average" a degree warmer than it really is, then you will really see colder than average months.

Even using the 1991-2020 normals which weren’t yet in place, there were 23 months out of 72 (32%) from 2015-2020 that were below normal at my location, and never more than 4 in any of those years. I wouldn’t call that plenty.

[Hoosier]

I calculated the average number of tornadoes per year for the 6 state area of IL/IN/MI/WI/OH/KY a while back.  I can't recall the exact number but it was around the 160-170 range.  

[A-L-E-K]

Best climo

[Hoosier]

Yeah, looks like widespread frost.  Unlike last time when I was (correctly) bullish on getting below freezing imby, I don't think it happens this time.  Radiational cooling setup is pretty good but the airmass aloft is a bit warmer than last time, so it should mean temps stay at least a degree or two above freezing locally.  Would not be surprised to see the typical coldest spots dip below freezing though.

[beavis1729]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, looks like widespread frost.  Unlike last time when I was (correctly) bullish on getting below freezing imby, I don't think it happens this time.  Radiational cooling setup is pretty good but the airmass aloft is a bit warmer than last time, so it should mean temps stay at least a degree or two above freezing locally.  Would not be surprised to see the typical coldest spots dip below freezing though.

Actually dropped to 30 here this morning, one of the colder spots in IL as we avoided the clouds. ORD and RFD were in the mid 30s, and even the typical cold spots were 32-34 due to lingering cloud cover. 

Agree about tonight...thinking 33-35 here, maybe 30-32 in the cold spots. Still pretty chilly for May 12th.
 

[Hoosier]

36 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Actually dropped to 30 here this morning, one of the colder spots in IL as we avoided the clouds. ORD and RFD were in the mid 30s, and even the typical cold spots were 32-34 due to lingering cloud cover. 

Agree about tonight...thinking 33-35 here, maybe 30-32 in the cold spots. Still pretty chilly for May 12th.
 

Airmass aloft tonight is not quite as cold as last night, so that seems like a pretty reasonable call.

Not completely out of the question that it manages to dip to freezing around here (we are only starting off in the upper 40s and should have some hours of prime radiational cooling conditions) but I'd give it maybe a 20-30% chance.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Even using the 1991-2020 normals which weren’t yet in place, there were 23 months out of 72 (32%) from 2015-2020 that were below normal at my location, and never more than 4 in any of those years. I wouldn’t call that plenty.

 28 of 72 here for that time frame but again, it's a very short window. Temperatures are always going to ebb and flow.  From 2013-15, 24 of the 36 months were colder than average.

2016-20: 21 of 60 colder than avg

2011-15: 32 of 60 colder than avg

2006-10: 27 of 60 colder than avg

 

My main point is that if you make an average a full 1° warmer than it should be, get ready for lots of colder than average months in the means over the next decade.

[Jonger]

9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

See, this is a tricky one, and it may depend on how one defines the Midwest.  Going back over, say, the last 10 years, I don't really see a signal for less severe weather regionwide.  Maybe if you pick out certain states or look at certain seasons, but that would take some time to look into.

Lower Michigan is a virtual deadzone for severe. Probably not much different than Boston these days.

[StormfanaticInd]

Severe weather has definitely taken a downturn. It is nothing like it used to be 

[StormfanaticInd]

What's even crazy is there is no severe weather in sight and we are in May!

[BuffaloWeather]

8 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

What's even crazy is there is no severe weather in sight and we are in May!

Hard to get severe weather when every April/May we get temps in the 40s/50s with low dews. That's been the new normal last few years.

[hawkeye_wx]

Here's a graphic of Des Moines area severe warnings through early May, going back to 1986.  The last three years are all at the bottom, with 2021 being the worst with only three warnings.  The last three years, combined, would be the eighth lowest on this list.  That's how bad it has been recently.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I may be off on this but I feel like we average 1-2 tornado watches a year now here in southern Wisconsin for the last few years. In the 2000s, yes there were down years but there were also years where there'd be like a 3-week period in May and June where it seemed like we were under one every other day.