Spring/Summer 2021 Banter/Complaint Thread

[CheeselandSkies]

@andyhb bringing some hope over on Stormtrack:

https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/state-of-the-chase-season-2021.31689/post-371308

[Chicago Storm]

[mention=6489]andyhb[/mention] bringing some hope over on Stormtrack:
https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/state-of-the-chase-season-2021.31689/post-371308

Yea pretty much like I said before, very tail end of April and start of May is when the change will occur.

Anyone that knows anything is pretty much onboard with that now it seems. Still some things that could go wrong, but signs are very encouraging at this distance.


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[Stebo]

12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Yea pretty much like I said before, very tail end of April and start of May is when the change will occur.

Anyone that knows anything is pretty much onboard with that now it seems. Still some things that could go wrong, but signs are very encouraging at this distance.


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Yes, the only thing I could see is it maybe kicked a bit further back because wholesale pattern changes tend to have a bit of latency to them.

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Yes, the only thing I could see is it maybe kicked a bit further back because wholesale pattern changes tend to have a bit of latency to them.

I think it's because models don't handle the processes driving MJO well.  I recall studying the MJO ten years ago and the global circulation models would just damp out the MJO over time... unless you tweaked the convective parameterization just right to make it appear (which unfortunately often screwed up other things, so you didn't know if it was appearing for the wrong reasons).  Maybe the operational models are better now, but they also used to just crash the MJO into the origin in the long range.  That would explain why if the MJO is going into a phase that suppresses the pacific jet and the model just crashes it into the origin, well the pattern is probably going to persist longer than forecast.  Back then it seemed like all the models trended to their own biased climatology after 15 days or so... and the MJO is an irregular 20-80 day "cycle".  Maybe they have gotten better and can actually forecast the MJO now, but I kind of doubt it.

[Chicago Storm]

Yes, the only thing I could see is it maybe kicked a bit further back because wholesale pattern changes tend to have a bit of latency to them.

That is one thing, though if it is delayed, it wouldn’t be significantly. The typhoon really should help to keep things from being too delayed.

One potential issue that needs not to happen is for a Hudson low to hang on, but not too concerned as of now.


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[Stebo]

4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

That is one thing, though if it is delayed, it wouldn’t be significantly. The typhoon really should help to keep things from being too delayed.

One potential issue that needs not to happen is for a Hudson low to hang on, but not too concerned as of now.


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Yeah, plus the later in the season you get the less important that low is especially for the plains.

[A-L-E-K]

 

hoosier cringing 

[A-L-E-K]

gonna be a lot of smoke filled sunsets later this summer

[StormfanaticInd]

Of topic but pray for Indy. Mass shooting at FedEx grounds near the airport last night

[TimB]

24 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Of topic but pray for Indy. Mass shooting at FedEx grounds near the airport last night

There have been too God damn many of these since life has started to return to normal.

[KokomoWX]

This article was posted in a local Facebook community forum and people are freaking out.  All I can say is good grief.  

[Powerball]

27 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

This article was posted in a local Facebook community forum and people are freaking out.  All I can say is good grief.  

Par for the course.

[Kitchener poster]

Golf courses are closed in Ontario. That’s so god damn dumb. 
 

Courses have so many precautions in place. You don’t even need to touch the pin anymore. Outdoor pro shops. No practice greens. 
 

Im so disappointed. 

[Chicago Storm]

I’ve been out in the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area this weekend, and there’s still a lot of tree damage in CID even now 8 months after the derecho.

 

Driving through the neighborhood on the west side of downtown, you notice a relative minimum of trees left standing...and the ones that are still standing have significant damage. Still numerous piles of tree debris curbside on some streets. Came across a few buildings and houses that are still significantly damaged and have been untouched, and wooded areas (such as alongside 380) where it reminds me of a forest blow down.

 

 

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[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I’ve been out in the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area this weekend, and there’s still a lot of tree damage in CID even now 8 months after the derecho.

 

Driving through the neighborhood on the west side of downtown, you notice a relative minimum of trees left standing...and the ones that are still standing have significant damage. Still numerous piles of tree debris curbside on some streets. Came across a few buildings and houses that are still significantly damaged and have been untouched, and wooded areas (such as alongside 380) where it reminds me of a forest blow down.

 

 

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I mean, wow

[CheeselandSkies]

9 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

I’ve been out in the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area this weekend, and there’s still a lot of tree damage in CID even now 8 months after the derecho.

 

Driving through the neighborhood on the west side of downtown, you notice a relative minimum of trees left standing...and the ones that are still standing have significant damage. Still numerous piles of tree debris curbside on some streets. Came across a few buildings and houses that are still significantly damaged and have been untouched, and wooded areas (such as alongside 380) where it reminds me of a forest blow down.

 

 

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Still boggles my mind that such a historically violent storm system took place with a.) almost no forecast lead time from the models/SPC, and b.) in such an overall down year for severe weather activity.

[TimB]

6 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Still boggles my mind that such a historically violent storm system took place with a.) almost no forecast lead time from the models/SPC, and b.) in such an overall down year for severe weather activity.

I forgot how bad of a miss that was. Looks like the initial D1 outlook had half of Iowa in a MRGL risk and a very small section of SE IA in a SLGT. By the time things got upgraded to a MDT risk and PDS watch, it was already too late.

[hawkeye_wx]

19 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

I’ve been out in the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area this weekend, and there’s still a lot of tree damage in CID even now 8 months after the derecho.

Driving through the neighborhood on the west side of downtown, you notice a relative minimum of trees left standing...and the ones that are still standing have significant damage. Still numerous piles of tree debris curbside on some streets. Came across a few buildings and houses that are still significantly damaged and have been untouched, and wooded areas (such as alongside 380) where it reminds me of a forest blow down.

Yep.  When I'm driving around it's very noticeable how many trees are gone.  I was out by a local cemetery yesterday in a relatively elevated part of the city, where a small wooded area along the road was ravaged.  The city just cut down everything near the road, dozens of trees.

This is a photo of a tiny wooded area near my house.  The wooded area by the cemetery is worse.

 

[NTXYankee]

So is the pattern change coming or has that been delayed until next year?  From the looks of things on the models we get a few days of warm then back in the dumpster with below normal readings starting for May.

[cyclone77]

zzzzzzz...wake me up in May

[NTXYankee]

5 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

zzzzzzz...wake me up in May

May 2022?  Not sure 2021 will offer much hope at this rate.

[WaryWarren]

May not ever again. 

[Hoosier]

Let's reminisce on a significant severe weather event.  Hey, I got one.  Today is the 25th anniversary of the April 19, 1996 outbreak.

Here is the convective discussion from that morning:

 

ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 191442
MKC AC 191442

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCCGPH940.

VALID 191500Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE OVER PTNS OF CNTRL/SRN IL...EXTRM ERN NO...MUCH OF IND...AND PARTS OF WRN KY...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE SDF BWG 35 SSE PAH PO2 STL BRL MMO SBN PWA 40 NE SDF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ART 35 NNW MSV CXY CRW 35 WNW CHA TUP MLU TYR PRX PGO UNO VIH LRK 25 WNW OTM ALO MSN 20 NNE MBS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBC JFK ... CONT ... SSI AQQ ... CONT ...BPT 35 W TPL MWL MKO TBN COU STJ BIE CRI 45 ENE BUB FSD RWF IWD CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA BPI 35 NW VEL ELY SFO.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO OUTBREAK PSBL TDA OVR PTNS OF THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS. LTST STLT IMAGERY SHOWS MID LVL VORT MAX OVR WRN NEB/KS MOVG ENEWD...WITH ASSOCD 70-80 KT WLY MID LVL JET XTNDG ACRS NM/OK. LOW LVL FLOW OVR THE MS VLY HAS BACKED IN RESPONSE TO APCHG SYS...ADVECTING GULF MSTR NWD. SFC DWPNTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S AS FAR N AS SRN IL...WITH FURTHER NWD TRANSPORT XPCTD THRU THE DAY. MID LVL TEMPS ARE ALSO QUITE COOL OVER THIS RGN WITH H5 TEMPS OF -16 TO -18 INDCD ON 12Z RAOBS. WIDESPREAD LOW CLDS ACRS THIS RGN ARE XCPD TO BURN OFF LATER THIS MORN...WITH STG SFC HTG AND INCRG LOW LVL MSTR RESULTING IN MDT/STG INSTBLY FROM CNTRL IL SWD INTO ERN AR/WRN TN WITH CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND LI/S OF -8 TO -10. 

TSTMS ARE XPCD TO DVLP LATER THIS AFTN ALG SFC CONVERGENCE AXIS/DRYLN XTNDG FROM WRN IL INTO EXTRM ERN MO. STG LOW LVL FORCING AND DEGREE OF INSTBY SUG STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BCM SVR...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL PSBL. IMPRESSIVE LOW/MID LVL SHEAR AND STORM-RELATIVE WIND PROFILES ALSO SUG SGFNT PTNL FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ACRS THE HIGH RISK AREA.

OTR MORE ISOLD SVR TSTMS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN AND EVE OVER PTNS OF ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL WHERE INCRG LOW LEVEL MSTR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DESTABILIZE AMS ABV SFC...WITH LARGE HAIL PSBL IN STGR STORMS.

[Hoosier]

And a PDS tornado watch:

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 190 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY MO 
511 PM CDT FRI APR 19 1996

THE NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER 
HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR

SOUTHEAST IOWA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY DAMAGING TORNADOES.ALSO HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MILWAUKEE WISCONSIN.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE 
WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION MOVING NWD ACROSS NRN IL AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SRN IA. SEVERE STORMS NOW OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.

...HALES

[Hoosier]

Tornadoes

[Hoosier]

 

 

 

[CheeselandSkies]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Tornadoes

Remember those were a thing in April in the Midwest?

I guess Rochelle wasn't that long ago...I try to block it out though since the atmosphere practically tried to gift-wrap it for me and I still managed to not catch it.

[A-L-E-K]

Should avoid the freeze here but will be closer than I'd like

[NTXYankee]

50 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Remember those were a thing in April in the Midwest?

I guess Rochelle wasn't that long ago...I try to block it out though since the atmosphere practically tried to gift-wrap it for me and I still managed to not catch it.

I can do one better at this point and say thunderstorms used to be a thing in April.   I have yet to hear one this year.  Don’t worry though we’ll have our new normal back if the GFS is right.  The first weekend in May could feature a sit and spin upper low with well below normal temps again.  Some pattern change...

[CheeselandSkies]

Low of 31 today, but the record for the day is 21 set only in 2018, so it has been worse and not all that long ago. That year is still the worst April in my adult memory (narrowly edging out 2014), but the fact that every one since seems to have tried to challenge it is not good.