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Spring Banter


Baroclinic Zone
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16 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Any 100% figure in science or medicine is silly. It’s impossible. 

First of all .. yup

but, ... even considering, the higher touted efficacy brands were not available until very recently, so it is unlikely they preceded/availed to those hapless people in Hoosier's post - which he does this, I have noticed. He seems to lurk and wait for detecting breaths or mere aromas of optimism ...then plunks in these dire-post -bombs.  LOL, I've grown to laugh at it's predictable nature...

...'Sides, frankly by that description, sounds like the would have succumb to a head cold anyway. 

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19 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

In the group tested none died...  that is all it means

Well... I wouldn't put it passed the shimmering ethics of any media source to 'keep it real' ( Jesus ) but if that is what the sources meant by 100%, ...then the lie has one or two more likely origins:

- the source's marketing

- the news media's headline subsequent expose'/manipulation miss-representing the intent of that statement

Hard to say which, as either marketing as a science, vs media as an industry .. both require lying and manipulation to exist.

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You report what you observe in the trial.  I agree that anytime a trial mentions 100% this or 100% that, that it can be misinterpreted by the general public to think they are guaranteed something.  I would interpret it as "that's pretty damn good, but maybe in reality it won't quite end up being 100%".  While the trials enroll a decent number of people, it is small compared to a rollout to the general public, so you may start to see things that didn't occur in a trial.

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3 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s pretty disheartening to see all this summer stuff being postponed or canceled.

That seems to be a massive overreaction and pessimistic view of where we will be in a few months 

I just had a comedy show that was postponed from last April to last December, then to this May postponed again to this December.  4th  different date  within a 14 month period.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Right ... none of these vaccine so far are advertised and/or in fact 'are' 100% dependable -

 

Exactly.  I've heard several people express sentiments against the vaccines when these types of stories come out.  These vaccines are what, 90% effective?

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So if the vaccines don't prevent you from getting COVID.....then if everyone gets the vaccine, COVID could still be spreading around - it's just that people won't be getting sick from it.  Couldn't over a period of time then, it mutates and the vaccines are ineffective? So we have to get a COVID shot every few years?  Could become like the flu vaccine - a new one every year. 

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Just now, Whineminster said:

So if the vaccines don't prevent you from getting COVID.....then if everyone gets the vaccine, COVID could still be spreading around - it's just that people won't be getting sick from it.  Couldn't over a period of time then, it mutates and the vaccines are ineffective? So we have to get a COVID shot every few years?  Could become like the flu vaccine - a new one every year. 

They do prevent infection. It's not just lessening the severity. It's not 100% like anything else.

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17 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Exactly.  I've heard several people express sentiments against the vaccines when these types of stories come out.  These vaccines are what, 90% effective?

Yeah it's a numbers game as usual...

Problem is, we can't realistically 'satisfy' the inconsolable, and/or those who are too far fringed or outer regional in their capacity for lucid, balanced reasoning - compared to the mass of the population bell-curve. Those are like a mash up of both inconsolable and unreasonableness... LOL.

We can't.  There's too many people. 

Standard Deviations in every statistical group emerges given sufficiently large data points. It's like the law of assholes or something... haha

I dunno, it's true though.  I think having say ... half of 7.5 billion global population or whatever incomprehensibly large number of too many human opinions there are, within shouting distance of a W-W-W portal ... probably qualifies as having audibly deviant perspectives on what the consensus would probably ( in private) consider to be just a weee bit off. 

 

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

You report what you observe in the trial.  I agree that anytime a trial mentions 100% this or 100% that, that it can be misinterpreted by the general public to think they are guaranteed something.  I would interpret it as "that's pretty damn good, but maybe in reality it won't quite end up being 100%".  While the trials enroll a decent number of people, it is small compared to a rollout to the general public, so you may start to see things that didn't occur in a trial.

I haven't read any of the press releases, but I doubt Pfizer is saying "100%" anywhere definitively in the actual results. They know better than that.

There is no chance this vaccine is 100% effective at anything when scaled to the worldwide population. The 95%  figures being tossed around are also probably not realistic across 7 billion people.

The scientists are not being shady, not saying that at all. It's the damned media. This kind of reporting ends up hurting the vaccine initiatives because when someone inevitably dies despite supposed 100% effectiveness, it feeds the narrative that the drug companies and scientists are lying to us.

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56 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

So if the vaccines don't prevent you from getting COVID.....then if everyone gets the vaccine, COVID could still be spreading around - it's just that people won't be getting sick from it.  Couldn't over a period of time then, it mutates and the vaccines are ineffective? So we have to get a COVID shot every few years?  Could become like the flu vaccine - a new one every year. 

"Experts say" we have 9-12 months until the "first generation" vaccines are rendered totally ineffective by mutated strains:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/30/mutations-could-make-current-covid-vaccines-ineffective-soon-survey.html

That's a big part of why we are waiting. We are at very low risk right now, and science will learn more about how the vaccine actually performs over the next year, leading to a better set of vaccines and more information about boosters, variants, etc. That's when we will jump in.

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9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I haven't read any of the press releases, but I doubt Pfizer is saying "100%" anywhere definitively in the actual results. They know better than that.

There is no chance this vaccine is 100% effective at anything when scaled to the worldwide population. The 95%  figures being tossed around are also probably not realistic across 7 billion people.

The scientists are not being shady, not saying that at all. It's the damned media. This kind of reporting ends up hurting the vaccine initiatives because when someone inevitably dies despite supposed 100% effectiveness, it feeds the narrative that the drug companies and scientists are lying to us.

Exactly ... reiterating, the source of the lie is:

"

- the source's marketing

- the news media's headline subsequent expose'/manipulation miss-representing the intent of that statement

"

 

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17 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I haven't read any of the press releases, but I doubt Pfizer is saying "100%" anywhere definitively in the actual results. They know better than that.

There is no chance this vaccine is 100% effective at anything when scaled to the worldwide population. The 95%  figures being tossed around are also probably not realistic across 7 billion people.

The scientists are not being shady, not saying that at all. It's the damned media. This kind of reporting ends up hurting the vaccine initiatives because when someone inevitably dies despite supposed 100% effectiveness, it feeds the narrative that the drug companies and scientists are lying to us.

I am almost certain that the trial results were reported to be 100% effective in preventing hospitalizations.  Not at getting covid, but at being hospitalized.  But it is just that... a trial with relatively small numbers compared to when you give it to millions of people.

Just today, we saw the report that a Pfizer trial showed 100% effectiveness in the 12-15 year old age group.  When that eventually gets rolled out to all 12-15 year olds, it is not unreasonable to think there will still be some cases in kids that age. 

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I am almost certain that the trial results were reported to be 100% effective in preventing hospitalizations.  Not at getting covid, but at being hospitalized.  But it is just that... a trial with relatively small numbers compared to when you give it to millions of people.

Just today, we saw the report that a Pfizer trial showed 100% effectiveness in the 12-15 year old age group.  When that eventually gets rolled out to all 12-15 year olds, it is not unreasonable to think there will still be some cases in kids that age. 

That doesn't even make sense. Hospitalization is a personal choice, that metric is heavily driven by selection bias. That's like saying the COVID vaccine is 100% effective at preventing people from getting on airplanes and flying around during a pandemic because none of the study participants did so.

I also still question these vaccine trials because they are affected by selection bias (generally people who fear the virus and take great care to avoid it sign up for the trials) and everyone in the trial is probably well-masked up and socially distanced. How will that scale when we go back to no masks and no distancing? Haven't seen that studied yet.

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That doesn't even make sense. Hospitalization is a personal choice, that metric is heavily driven by selection bias.

I also still question these vaccine trials because they are affected by selection bias (generally people who fear the virus and take great care to avoid it sign up for the trials) and everyone in the trial is probably well-masked up and socially distanced. How will that scale when we go back to no masks and no distancing? Haven't seen that studied yet.

Here's an example.  The J&J vaccine was reported to be 100% effective against hospitalizations.  I think the other vaccines reported the same thing.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/01/jj-vaccine-shown-prevent-85-severe-covid-19-disease

You raise a good point.  What will vaccine effectiveness be like in a world where masking and social distancing goes away?  Would not be surprising to see some erosion of effectiveness, besides any new variants that pop up.

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I haven't read any of the press releases, but I doubt Pfizer is saying "100%" anywhere definitively in the actual results. They know better than that.

There is no chance this vaccine is 100% effective at anything when scaled to the worldwide population. The 95%  figures being tossed around are also probably not realistic across 7 billion people.

The scientists are not being shady, not saying that at all. It's the damned media. This kind of reporting ends up hurting the vaccine initiatives because when someone inevitably dies despite supposed 100% effectiveness, it feeds the narrative that the drug companies and scientists are lying to us.

Even if 95% were to be the right number, 200 million vaccinated people in the US would mean about 10 million getting the disease.  Surely in those millions there are some who probably should be in hospital before being infected and some just a hair's width from death, and COVID would just be the final straw (or dust mote) to push them over the edge.  Followed by screaming headlines.

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Good thing there's no virus banter in this thread.  People should come or come back to the ampol site.  Got my 1st Pfizer shot today at an Osco inside a Shaws.  Was pretty casual compared to what I've seen at the mass vaccination sites.  Was in and out in like 20 mins.  I'm happy to have gotten it and looking forward to getting the protection in a couple weeks.

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Can you imagine if all these vaccine shots were delivering a potion with nano tech, a chemical concoction count-down to doomsday, such that everybody with the "d-serum" coursing through their veins, cured of all ailments, will maximize proficiency when they are suddenly mutated into obedient slaves in 6 months when the cadre pulls the trigger -

 

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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Right ... none of these vaccine so far are advertised and/or in fact 'are' 100% dependable -

 

Even the measles vaccine is “only” 95% effective. The mumps part s only 78% effective.  You do see a few breakthrough infections, but it’s rare because the entire population (mostly) is vaccinated with the MMR. 
Once more people get vaccinated for COVID, there’ll be fewer breakthrough infections.

That story out of Washington lacked a ton of context. Questions like how many of those 100 were tested because they felt sick? How many were tested as part of routine testing that weren’t sick (I.e., low viral load as to be non infectious)? How old were they? The story did say that at the 2 that died were in their 80’s. Some older people won’t have a good immune response. But it’s a typical story designed to get clicks that contain zero background nor context.

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Can you imagine if all these vaccine shots were delivering a potion with nano tech, a chemical concoction count-down to doomsday, such that everybody with the "d-serum" coursing through their veins, cured of all ailments, will maximize proficiency when they are suddenly mutated into obedient slaves in 6 months when the cadre pulls the trigger -

 

I’m totally stealing this and posting it on social media anti vax sites. This will send them into orbit

:lol:

 

 

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5 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

I’m totally stealing this and posting it on social media anti vax sites. This will send them into orbit

:lol:

 

 

Seriously ... I'm like, wtf with these idiots -

You know, I was asked to join a Sci Fi contest recently - enter some material by the sponsors ... I'm half considering blowing that up with 30,000 words as a Novella and scoring alpha points for relevancy - lol...

ugh

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