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Spring Banter


Baroclinic Zone
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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lumber doubled in the last 3 months though. Food is skyrocketing as well. Not optimal

There are hard times coming over the next several years. Hope folks didn't actually think a political finger snap or magical shot in the arm was going to return us to pre-2020. Doesn't work that way. Many of the worst effects from 2020 are lagging indicators: suicides, alcoholism, drug use, crime, economic inflation, long term job losses, educational system collapse, hunger, housing crises, global geopolitical tensions...

These indicators are all headed in the wrong long term direction now.

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44 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

There are hard times coming over the next several years. Hope folks didn't actually think a political finger snap or magical shot in the arm was going to return us to pre-2020. Doesn't work that way. Many of the worst effects from 2020 are lagging indicators: suicides, alcoholism, drug use, crime, economic inflation, long term job losses, educational system collapse, hunger, housing crises, global geopolitical tensions...

These indicators are all headed in the wrong long term direction now.

Well see what happens with a lot of these. 
 

I thought a lot of colleges would crumble from this, but apps and enrollment for next year seems to be unaffected if not even better than normal at a lot of places from people I’ve spoke with.

Kids are just going to keep going to college. 

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2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

There are hard times coming over the next several years. Hope folks didn't actually think a political finger snap or magical shot in the arm was going to return us to pre-2020. Doesn't work that way. Many of the worst effects from 2020 are lagging indicators: suicides, alcoholism, drug use, crime, economic inflation, long term job losses, educational system collapse, hunger, housing crises, global geopolitical tensions...

These indicators are all headed in the wrong long term direction now.

suicides, alcoholism and opioid addiction were increasing for many years pre-covid.  definitely don't want to return to the pre-2020 paltry 2% growth rates.  some inflation would actually be a good thing.  it's been artificially low for too long.  it's certainly better than deflation.

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21 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

My wife takes care of our mortgage but I remember her complaining now and then about that.

Only way to avoid it is ask if you can pay it yourself, most banks would rather take your money early and work with it. Do that for all your mortgages and that adds to the bottom line.

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40 minutes ago, S&P said:

 Noticed a lot of kids out in their baseball uniforms yesterday , nice to see them start with some sort of normalcy for them, miss those days coaching

Yea me too. I am still coaching Women's softball part time but miss the hardball days. Hitting fungos and infield was a so much fun.  Kids loved it when I switch hit one handed lol. So much fun. Its beyond a joy when I drive by a baseball field and see pick up sandlot games, thats the true meaning of sport and exactly what a lot of kids need right now. Hanging out with friends playing games outside.

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13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

It’s crazy, it sounds like the lumber supply is really struggling.  Tons of DIY projects all last summer (Lowe’s and HD had extremely strong summers as they were lucky to be deemed essential) and a boom in housing construction and upgrades/additions to existing housing over the last 6 months.  Lumber mills shut down for COVID cases and drastically reduced supply... it also sounds like not a ton could get through from Canada for a time.

Seems like lumber will be expensive until the supply and demand can find an equilibrium?

And with mud season coming soon (like, Friday?) it's not getting better soon.  Hope for a dry spring so folks can resume significant harvesting in May rather than June.  Unfortunately, the boost in prices hasn't been trickling down to those providing the raw material.  Needle has barely moved for loggers and landowners.

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Speaking of lack of supplies. Look at the shortage in Semiconductor chips closely .

You can see it in major auto makers coming out and saying they will continue to build 100’s of thousands of vehicles this year that will be complete (minus the vital) semiconductor chip that ..well you can’t operate the vehicle without . 
 

That is an issue that could weigh on the economy *more than currently predicted as those chips are used in a extensive amount of products. I wonder if there is a country out there that the public may not quite understand uses its leverage in that Semi conductor  business and also with their near monopoly in rare earth minerals (And ALL their industry uses) to steer foreign policy hardball And last month Publicly ponder (outloud !) how much they could damage U.S  defense contractors if they were withheld .

The main supplier that is  suppose to pick up the semi conductor slack is  (Taiwan Semiconductor manufacturing) they are a beast of a company in the global supply chain , and on their 4Q earnings call said it is their focus to manufacture as many as possible for supply shortage . That does put them in the middle of geopolitical tensions between the two largest economies, and geographically ..much closer and able to be threatened by one .
 

If for any reasons that Semiconductor Re-supply attempt is not successful that will add a strong headwind to any economic growth (outside of what knee jerk reopening fully will lead to as well as the trillions in direct fiscal stimulus supplies ) and More importantly those shortages will start to spread into more industries , (CPU, Vehicle’s Medical devices, cell phones , electrical) 

Economic Warfare is not new , but it’s going to be harder to ignore the effects of  ..even if it’s not revealed as such and the huge technological changes currently driving the (New/Future economy) transformation in job markets , automation and robotics , solar and EV vehicle use Depend more than folks realize on Materials from “Countries”  who see newfound leverage in their incredible current supply advantage in such materials . 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

We played " Wall ball" in Baltimore city.  Spray painted a box on the brick of the school building and used a rubber ball. We played from 8am till dark 7 days a week in the summer.  Unless it snowed ...then it was football or king of the hill lol

we did that, used a super pinky and one of those skinny yellow bats and we would wrap in electrical tape so it was stiffer and lasted longer.

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29 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

we did that, used a super pinky and one of those skinny yellow bats and we would wrap in electrical tape so it was stiffer and lasted longer.

We played cork ball with a cork wrapped in black electrical tape and a piece of a hickory branch we whittled down. Dawn to dark lol. Being poor wasn't always as bad as I thought.  Thinking back we made do even though we were jealous.  My first glove was when I was 10 and I learned later my Dad saved for a month to get it. I oiled that and tied a baseball in it all winter every year. I was bat boy for the local semi pro team, they gave me their broken bats and old baseballs. I would take the bats home and screw them back together then tape them over. Even though I could barely swing them I learned to use them. I could from that point on never get used to the new light bats, felt like toothpicks to me. God baseball is king

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

We played cork ball with a cork wrapped in black electrical tape and a piece of a hickory branch we whittled down. Dawn to dark lol. Being poor wasn't always as bad as I thought.  Thinking back we made do even though we were jealous.  My first glove was when I was 10 and I learned later my Dad saved for a month to get it. I oiled that and tied a baseball in it all winter every year. I was bat boy for the local semi pro team, they gave me their broken bats and old baseballs. I would take the bats home and screw them back together then tape them over. Even though I could barely swing them I learned to use them. I could from that point on never get used to the new light bats, felt like toothpicks to me. God baseball is king

Half of what you just described is probably illegal now. :(

A bunch of stuff I did as a kid would get a kid’s parents arrested now if some Karen tattled on them. 

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20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We played cork ball with a cork wrapped in black electrical tape and a piece of a hickory branch we whittled down. Dawn to dark lol. Being poor wasn't always as bad as I thought.  Thinking back we made do even though we were jealous.  My first glove was when I was 10 and I learned later my Dad saved for a month to get it. I oiled that and tied a baseball in it all winter every year. I was bat boy for the local semi pro team, they gave me their broken bats and old baseballs. I would take the bats home and screw them back together then tape them over. Even though I could barely swing them I learned to use them. I could from that point on never get used to the new light bats, felt like toothpicks to me. God baseball is king

All these things!   My first glove was a Stan Musial model-he was still at the top of his game then...did the same thing with oil and the ball!  

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22 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Half of what you just described is probably illegal now. :(

A bunch of stuff I did as a kid would get a kid’s parents arrested now if some Karen tattled on them. 

Would the fact that our neighborhood teenage team of rag tag kids was supplied with gloves bats and balls handed out the backdoor of our local Nyanza by an employee be illegal ? lol. Lots of things fell out of the back of trucks back in the day.

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3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

We played " Wall ball" in Baltimore city.  Spray painted a box on the brick of the school building and used a rubber ball. We played from 8am till dark 7 days a week in the summer.  Unless it snowed ...then it was football or king of the hill lol

That was what we did growing up in East Cambridge.

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3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

We played " Wall ball" in Baltimore city.  Spray painted a box on the brick of the school building and used a rubber ball. We played from 8am till dark 7 days a week in the summer.  Unless it snowed ...then it was football or king of the hill lol

I did the same when I was a kid. Very fun.

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Just now, DavisStraight said:

We will too soon, wish I had a composite deck. We did buy a power washer so we save there.

We have a power washer, too. I was contemplating doing it myself, but my neighbor did his last year and basically ruined his vinyl siding. It has all kinds of faded uneven areas now where he went too close.

I figured it was worth the $400 bucks it’s going to cost me as opposed to potentially running my siding lol.

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23 hours ago, tamarack said:

And with mud season coming soon (like, Friday?) it's not getting better soon.  Hope for a dry spring so folks can resume significant harvesting in May rather than June.  Unfortunately, the boost in prices hasn't been trickling down to those providing the raw material.  Needle has barely moved for loggers and landowners.

so someone is raking in the profits.....

Fuel also rising pretty fast going into summer.  

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13 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Spring has sprung here. Bulbs popping all over the place. Hosta coming up. 
 

having my house and deck power washed tomorrow. Weather permitting, we stain Easter weekend

Nada here. Your neighbor didn't know what he was doing. You have to use medium nozzles at fan mode and never get closer than 4 inches. Amateur hour

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