Spring Banter

[WhitinsvilleWX]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/10/who-classifies-triple-mutant-covid-variant-from-india-as-global-health-risk-.html

There will always be the next mutant from Satan to instill fear in the masses.

[Tolland Death Band]

1 minute ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

There will always be the next mutant from Satan to instill fear in the masses.

Satan being the media? Lol

[radarman]

6 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

The bolded is the authors opinion. I’ve read countless scientific papers and authored/coauthored over 100. That sentence is pure speculation from a particular agenda. It may or may not be true. The best papers present the data and discuss the results, period. Again, my own opinion.

Well.. Yes and like Tip said... Vet the source.

But I do think if they assume that antibody counts are in fact a proxy for immunity and they are seeing lower and variable counts in young people, it would be a natural conclusion to draw. My issue is with their assumption, in light of the study that used a likely better proxy... Actual reinfections with PCR tests.  Not perfect in their own right, granted.

[Bostonseminole]

media will do its best to spin this that a 4th wave is imminent....

I mean only 8% of the world has been vaccinated so the WHO might not be wrong on this.


.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

So as I’ve mentioned before, my heat and central air are all on one zone for our whole house (2700 square feet, 2 floors). We kicked the tires on adding another zone, and given the current layout, we are talking big big money.

I bought a window unit to go in our bedroom so we don’t have to work the system to hard, it’ll give us a nice cool sleeping room. We can tolerate it a bit warmer elsewhere.

[Brian5671]

32 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

I mean only 8% of the world has been vaccinated so the WHO might not be wrong on this.


.

I was thinking for the US.    Wasn't it 2 months ago someone at CDC said we were going to have a 4th wave that would be a disaster?  

[PhineasC]

LOL "triple mutant" now. 

 

 

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, tamarack said:

I see a "flex point" at which temp rise overwhelms potential snow from increased precip.  Maybe that point is now at PHL or NYC or BWI, and will slowly progress northward assuming current or similar trends are maintained.  Be a long time in that scenario before the flex passes over NNE.  (Of course, places below the flex will have increasing variation, like 09-10 when BWI had 7" more snow than CAR.)

Yeah agreed.  I like that term, flex point over critical point.  At some point the temps would overwhelm it but like you said, that’s a long way off in New England, especially NNE.  

[SouthCoastMA]

I'll leave this here - ignore the fear mongering

https://www.thejournal.ie/no-evidence-pfizer-vaccine-update-variants-5433235-May2021/

[PhineasC]

I don't know if they are still pushing the mutant variant message because they think it will drive vaccinations or not.

It doesn't seem productive to try to encourage vaccine uptake by casting doubt on the effectiveness of the vaccines, but that seems to be the messaging from the powers that be right now.

The messaging should be: "Get your vaccine and then life will be normal for you again."

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I'll leave this here - ignore the fear mongering

https://www.thejournal.ie/no-evidence-pfizer-vaccine-update-variants-5433235-May2021/

Looking at this more closely, it seems to me they are just saying they won't need to radically alter the design of the vaccine for the variants we know about today. We will still need boosters. Not really news, IMO.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

It seems like at least half the time someone delivers food to the house, it’s someone aged 50 and up. That strikes me as a sign of a bad economy and a bad sign for the future. That’s a job for 16 year olds...

Yup, a lot of that in low level service industry spots.  Touches back on the discussion a week or two ago about high school and college students not filling entry level jobs like when many of us were in high school.  The dishwasher, delivery guy, gym attendant, pool server, etc are not the people who used to take the $10-12/hr job... this is causing places to raise their wages for those positions to like $30k a year jobs to try and attract another sector of the population.  Still shocking that area hotels around here can start at $17/hr or more for entry level service positions because they need to fill them.

Mom and pop stores were not designed with that budget in mind though.

Stowe PD and EMS start lower than an entry level front desk agent at Stowe Mountain Lodge, or as it’s called now the Lodge at Spruce Peak.

[ORH_wxman]

3 hours ago, tamarack said:

Just checked Climod2 and BDL is "M" for April 1996.  Precip/temps would support some snow on the 7th and 9th but their getting another 8" (on 0.41" LE) seems a stretch for April.  Of course, Norfolk at 1340' had 20" that month so who knows?

Keep in mind that those early ASOS precip buckets were sometimes a total catastrophe in snowstorms. I think ORH has some sizable storms in those first several years of ASOS that were like 30 to 1...total joke. 

The second April ‘96 storm was pretty sizable so BDL prob got at least 5-6” in that one alone. The first one was smaller but 8”+ from those two storms seems totally reasonable to me. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yup, a lot of that in low level service industry spots.  Touches back on the discussion a week or two ago about high school and college students not filling entry level jobs like when many of us were in high school.  The dishwasher, delivery guy, gym attendant, pool server, etc are not the people who used to take the $10-12/hr job... this is causing places to raise their wages for those positions to like $30k a year jobs to try and attract another sector of the population.  Still shocking that area hotels around here can start at $17/hr or more for entry level service positions because they need to fill them.

Mom and pop stores were not designed with that budget in mind though.

Stowe PD and EMS start lower than an entry level front desk agent at Stowe Mountain Lodge.

I think this is becoming true in a lot of places.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yup, a lot of that in low level service industry spots.  Touches back on the discussion a week or two ago about high school and college students not filling entry level jobs like when many of us were in high school.  The dishwasher, delivery guy, gym attendant, pool server, etc are not the people who used to take the $10-12/hr job... this is causing places to raise their wages for those positions to like $30k a year jobs to try and attract another sector of the population.  Still shocking that area hotels around here can start at $17/hr or more for entry level service positions because they need to fill them.

Mom and pop stores were not designed with that budget in mind though.

Stowe PD and EMS start lower than an entry level front desk agent at Stowe Mountain Lodge, or as it’s called now the Lodge at Spruce Peak.

I also love when people go... but there are tons of jobs out there!!!!! Yeah, garbage ones that pay nothing. Smoke and mirrors job market.

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I think this is becoming true in a lot of places.

Yeah I thought I read $18.33 an hour for a starting full-time officer.  Obviously there’s a lot of overtime and special detail work available... but for what seems like a very well funded PD department (lots of taxes from tourists and million dollar second homes) it shocked me.  If there are homes on the market for like $14 million and the ski resort tax base, I’d think they’d do better for public safety than what my wife pays for a high school graduate to work at a Spa front desk checking guests in.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I also love when people go... but there are tons of jobs out there!!!!! Yeah, garbage ones that pay nothing. Smoke and mirrors job market.

The hand is getting forced here.  Certainly much different than other economies but places are being squeezed now to pay like $30-40k/yr for non-skilled service starter jobs.  They literally can’t operate without raising wages significantly.  Pretty soon you’ll be able to answer phones at a hotel switchboard for the same wage as a teacher, if you can’t already.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

30 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I don't know if they are still pushing the mutant variant message because they think it will drive vaccinations or not.

It doesn't seem productive to try to encourage vaccine uptake by casting doubt on the effectiveness of the vaccines, but that seems to be the messaging from the powers that be right now.

The messaging should be: "Get your vaccine and then life will be normal for you again."

Also, I’ll say this too, clamoring for everyone to get the vaccine to get back to normal, and then the best you can do as far as updated guidance is to tell people who can adequately distance outside that they don’t need masks, some of the time. That is a horrendous message to send to people on the fence about getting it.

[PhineasC]

31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yup, a lot of that in low level service industry spots.  Touches back on the discussion a week or two ago about high school and college students not filling entry level jobs like when many of us were in high school.  The dishwasher, delivery guy, gym attendant, pool server, etc are not the people who used to take the $10-12/hr job... this is causing places to raise their wages for those positions to like $30k a year jobs to try and attract another sector of the population.  Still shocking that area hotels around here can start at $17/hr or more for entry level service positions because they need to fill them.

Mom and pop stores were not designed with that budget in mind though.

Stowe PD and EMS start lower than an entry level front desk agent at Stowe Mountain Lodge, or as it’s called now the Lodge at Spruce Peak.

Are these older folks taking these jobs because they want to, or because they have no choice?

I feel like a lot of the jobs we have added under the last couple Presidents and this one have been kind of fake and lame jobs that are not designed to pay a livable wage and really can't. Now we need to artificially raise the salary of the towel-folding guy at the hotel pool to $50k because it turns out he is a 45 year old man with two kids and a mortgage? That is a house of cards that will collapse soon.

[PhineasC]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The hand is getting forced here.  Certainly much different than other economies but places are being squeezed now to pay like $30-40k/yr for non-skilled service starter jobs.  They literally can’t operate without raising wages significantly.  Pretty soon you’ll be able to answer phones at a hotel switchboard for the same wage as a teacher, if you can’t already.

That isn't sustainable. The bottom is going to drop out of these jobs before long.

The people who own the local spas and small hotels are not millionaire fat cats. They don't have a lot more money to dump back into salaries just because the woman greeting people at the door to the spa happens to be 37 with three kids and can't get a job anywhere else...

Once the spa closes down, no one will have a job.

[WhitinsvilleWX]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Also, I’ll say this too, clamoring for everyone to get the vaccine to get back to normal, and then the best you can do as far as updated guidance is to tell people who can adequately distance outside that they don’t need masks, some of the time. That is a horrendous message to send to people on the fence about getting it.

The whole messaging was fouled up from the beginning. The reason they told you that it might  not stop transmission, or it couldn’t be said,  is because there was/is no label for it. The trials didn’t assess that. Longer trials would have done that. What people have to understand is that drug manufactures can not, under any circumstances, make claims that is not on the label. That’s gotten more drug companies in trouble than anything else.

That said, no vaccine is ever manufactured or marketed without the idea that it stops transmission. If it stops infection, you won’t transmit it. Viral load and all. The messaging could have been better. Label be damned. 
But there has to be easing if indoor masking. Places like where I work will not under any circumstance relax the masking until the city and state change the orders. 
 

[NorEastermass128]

AI is coming sooner or later. Probably sooner. 

[Brian5671]

27 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

The whole messaging was fouled up from the beginning. The reason they told you that it might  not stop transmission, or it couldn’t be said,  is because there was/is no label for it. The trials didn’t assess that. Longer trials would have done that. What people have to understand is that drug manufactures can not, under any circumstances, make claims that is not on the label. That’s gotten more drug companies in trouble than anything else.

That said, no vaccine is ever manufactured or marketed without the idea that it stops transmission. If it stops infection, you won’t transmit it. Viral load and all. The messaging could have been better. Label be damned. 
But there has to be easing if indoor masking. Places like where I work will not under any circumstance relax the masking until the city and state change the orders. 
 

it's really confusing around here-there's no longer an outdoor mask mandate but my son plays soccer with a mask on, my other son plays baseball with no mask and apparantly all kids still need masks all day for summer camp? WTF? 

[powderfreak]

34 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That isn't sustainable. The bottom is going to drop out of these jobs before long.

The people who own the local spas and small hotels are not millionaire fat cats. They don't have a lot more money to dump back into salaries just because the woman greeting people at the door to the spa happens to be 37 with three kids and can't get a job anywhere else...

Once the spa closes down, no one will have a job.

Ah I see what you are saying... no they aren't people with mortgages out of necessity.  It's usually younger aged folks.  The situation I'm describing isn't "dumping money into salaries" because the staff member needs to pay a mortgage.  It's pure staffing shortages 100%.  Places are not able to operate unless they raise their wages to pretty high levels all things considered... because they cannot get people to fill those roles.  There are no more high school or college students (or that age that used to work for very low wages while living with Mom and Dad) to fold towels and that middle aged person won't do it for that rate.  So the businesses keep raising wages until someone will take the job.

Eventually those rising costs will be passed off the consumer at some point for sure.

And like I've said, this is probably a different economy.  These aren't "local spas and small hotels" like one thinks of in N.NH or other areas of VT... the Stowe area is a bit different I think in that regard.  The history of high-end tourism goes back to the 1800s when President's used to vacation here and then in the 1930s this was really the birthplace of VT skiing/tourism.  There are certainly some of those small local owned lodging (usually owned by money made in NYC or BOS that want to play in VT), but I'm talking about places that are often boutique properties owned by large companies.  Like my wife's owner is a hospitality group that has high end small properties in places like Stowe, Lake Placid, Boston, Montreal, Aspen, Jackson Hole, etc).  The hotel that Cpick loves to visit, Stowe Mtn Lodge/Lodge at Spruce Peak is managed by Hyatt. 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's really confusing around here-there's no longer an outdoor mask mandate but my son plays soccer with a mask on, my other son plays baseball with no mask and apparantly all kids still need masks all day for summer camp? WTF? 

I was talking to some of my students about sports and masks.  For baseball they need masks in the dugout/on the bench.  In the field they are typically distant enough no mask needed.  
For soccer you tend to be right next to people a lot.  But that has to be hard to play in a mask. Same with some other sports

[WhitinsvilleWX]

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's really confusing around here-there's no longer an outdoor mask mandate but my son plays soccer with a mask on, my other son plays baseball with no mask and apparantly all kids still need masks all day for summer camp? WTF? 

None of it makes sense any more. The CDC says fully vaccinated people can meet together indoors with no mask. Yet me and my 4 reports, who are all fully vaccinated, can’t have a staff meeting in a conference room unmasked. 

[powderfreak]

38 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

AI is coming sooner or later. Probably sooner. 

Yeah it's going to be cheaper to go that route than hire people soon... especially as the expectation of higher wages continues to gain steam.

Parts of the service industry will be tough to replace.... but eventually economics will win.  Wonder if that becomes the new "manufacturing" industry at some point.  Seeing a lot more unionization of the service industry, more demands for benefits and employees feeling like they have some leverage in places that can't fill positions.

The biggest issue in the service industry is that many are pushing back on companies saying it's not possible to make a career out of it... but most of those service, food, hospitality jobs weren't designed to be careers except for the highest levels/management. In the ski industry, unions are starting to become a thing, particularly in ski patrol and I think ski instructing.  When Big Sky, MT and Breckenridge, CO ski patrols unionized last month, it was because it's hard to make a career out of it.  The counter was that it's a 5-month a year job, not meant to be a career per se.  But these jobs are needed, they are unionizing, and collective bargaining type stuff is happening in the service industry.

Parts of the service industry are mirroring some aspects of the old automotive, ironworks, mining, manufacturing type jobs.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah agreed.  I like that term, flex point over critical point.  At some point the temps would overwhelm it but like you said, that’s a long way off in New England, especially NNE.  

I see the bigger problem being the huge melt offs that seem to be bigger and more frequent.  Notice I said seem, I don’t have any hard data close at hand to prove or disprove that thought. Also on the anecdotal level, deep cold seems less common. And yes, I know we still get some good cold from time to time but -30s don’t happen much anymore. Growing up, it wasn’t uncommon for Canaan, VT to be the coldest spot in the country at least a few times each winter. It may be that there isn’t an observer there anymore or the location has changed but it doesn’t feel the same. 

[PhineasC]

I love when I read, "If you can't afford to pay people in unskilled jobs a livable wage, you can't afford to be in business."

That seems to be the rallying cry of some out there. It's a really dumb sentiment. When a business folds, everyone is let go and it's a net loss for the community.

The other side of the coin that young people are not taking the jobs and desperate businesses are paying more to hire older folks is that those entry level jobs now require degrees and/or years of experience. This is something else the younger crowd complains about a lot, but they helped create the issue.

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

None of it makes sense any more. The CDC says fully vaccinated people can meet together indoors with no mask. Yet me and my 4 reports, who are all fully vaccinated, can’t have a staff meeting in a conference room unmasked. 

@UMB WX will hit my post with a weenie emoji, but a lot of this lurched the wrong way when Biden came into office. He pushed the CDC and other Federal agencies so far in the other direction of mandating masks at all times in all places that it will take a long while to dig back out due to gov't inertia. It had zero to do with the science; it was all posturing and "keeping campaign promises." He also pressured states to do the same things.

Like I have said, I work on a Federal installation. Before Inauguration Day, with no vaccine, you could be outside socially-distanced without a mask or be in your office with no mask.

Once Biden came into office, the rules were suddenly tightened and now you need a mask at all times everywhere even if no one is within 100 feet of you. Signs went up all over post overnight and guards are enforcing the rules. Food trucks that had been operating for months were also run out of the area.

That isn't "following the science" at all.