Spring Banter

[Bostonseminole]

Excited road races are back in Mass.. need to register for a 5K to get back in shape.

[powderfreak]

Just now, PhineasC said:

I think the biggest issue is at least back then most of those kids went to school and saw how other kids lived. Now they have been kept inside for over a year on Zoom school in some cases. And some schools have also been like little mini-jails. Kids can't even talk to their friends. So that just adds to the shut-in misery of these kids.

But yeah, crazy neurotic overprotective parents have existed for a while now, it really became a major fad in the 1990s.

Ha yup late 80s and 90s in the suburbs.  Every little news story or freak event would cause some parents to lose it.  “Can’t do that, a kid got maimed in Ohio last week doing that!”

That was probably the start of the news media freaking parents out.  Watching the nightly news filled with stories of one-off accidents and everyone saying here’s how you prevent that.

[PhineasC]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Ha yup late 80s and 90s in the suburbs.  Every little news story or freak event would cause some parents to lose it.  “Can’t do that, a kid got maimed in Ohio last week doing that!”

That was probably the start of the news media freaking parents out.  Watching the nightly news filled with stories of one-off accidents and everyone saying here’s how you prevent that.

Yet people wonder how Millennials ended up the way they are?

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

he's been spot on to be honest on predicting surges.. folks can disagree on all the other crap he tries to talk about, but on this he has predicted most surges

I'll be happy if he's right on that prediction for sure.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha yup late 80s and 90s in the suburbs.  Every little news story or freak event would cause some parents to lose it.  “Can’t do that, a kid got maimed in Ohio last week doing that!”

That was probably the start of the news media freaking parents out.  Watching the nightly news filled with stories of one-off accidents and everyone saying here’s how you prevent that.

then went the internet came to be it got even worse....the kidnapping in OH now became the subject of message boards and other stuff like that.   

[powderfreak]

22 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I don't think he is a grifter or anything like that. I'm sure he's a great scientist. But he is not an economist, psychiatrist, ethicist, childhood education expert, lawyer, or politician. Yet, people keep asking him questions from those domains and then he answers...

Yup, this is why COVID is such a loaded gun now.  It’s been so strongly tied to policy and that in many minds it’s hard to separate COVID the sickness from policy.  Everyone has an opinion on the resulting policy which then alters their opinion on COVID itself.

My dad’s a retired ER doc... ask him to make policy it’s going to solely try to prevent accidents as he readily admits, not worry about freedoms or economy.  He always jokes that backyard trampolines would be the first thing to go based on the volume of maimed kids and adults that originate from those things.  He’s seen more people paralyzed from suburban trampolines than car wrecks, ha.

[Bostonseminole]

any crypto dudes follow $RLC? been climbing past few days, but can't find anything special..

[dendrite]

30 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

well I don't trust that data lol

Not even Lebron trusts it.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

New 30 year climo averages. We're getting warmer, but we're also getting snowier

Buffalo, NY: +0.7"

Rochester NY +2.5"

Syracuse NY +4.0"

Chicago, IL: +2.1"

Detroit, MI: +2.5"

Grand Rapids, MI: +2.6"

New York City, NY: +4.0"

Flint, MI: +4.7"

Boston, MA: +5.4"

Hartford, CT: +11.2"

Pittsburgh, PA +2.7"

hat Boston increase looks legit but the Hartford one doesn't.  Mt data is from BDL and has the norms increasing from 49.6" to 52.3".

[WhitinsvilleWX]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

 

My wife and I are already vaxxed, but we still tested a couple times and they never came back positive.

 

The viral load in kids doesn't get high enough to transmit, really. There are exceptions, but for the most part, kids dont get that sick.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

The viral load in kids doesn't get high enough to transmit, really. There are exceptions, but for the most part, kids dont get that sick.

one of the great mysteries.   The flu pandemics of past hit kids hard but this doesn't...

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The guy has led our country through some of the most challenging health issues we've ever faced for many many years. You can disagree with him, but he's not a fraud.

He did a good job but come on . Covid is almost over.

[CoastalWx]

Glad he's ok Will. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

He did a good job but come on . Covid is almost over.

Well he said he didn't expect a surge in the Fall. What issue do you have with that? Whether he is right or wrong on that, is another debate.

[tamarack]

For those into conspiracy things, here's a beauty from the Franklin County Sheriff's report:

05/07/2021 1502hrs, Deputy Couture took a complaint from an AT hiker near the “Height of the Land” from Pennsylvania who claimed that while on his hike, he was being targeted by people using microwave weapons, and various electronic weapons and devises to harass him. He wanted to report this before he left.

Guy must have lost the tinfoil hat while thrashing thru Mahoosuc Notch.  ("Height of Land" is the camera lovers' turnout from Rt 17 about 10 miles south of Rangeley.)

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Glad he's ok Will. 

We almost didn't even test him...the only reason we did is because there had been a case at his daycare like 8-10 days earlier and even though he tested negative a few days after that case, we figured maybe it was still in incubation period or something, so we tested him again when he was complaining of not feeling great and he had a really low grade fever (like around 100F) and a mild headache. Sure enough, it comes back positive.

10 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

The viral load in kids doesn't get high enough to transmit, really. There are exceptions, but for the most part, kids dont get that sick.

Yeah my younger son never caught it from his older brother despite being all over him the whole time they were quarantined at home. Seems like it must take a pretty big viral load to get kids infected...esp toddlers.

[BuffaloWeather]

14 minutes ago, tamarack said:

hat Boston increase looks legit but the Hartford one doesn't.  Mt data is from BDL and has the norms increasing from 49.6" to 52.3".

I got it from Boston NWS FB page

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, tamarack said:

hat Boston increase looks legit but the Hartford one doesn't.  Mt data is from BDL and has the norms increasing from 49.6" to 52.3".

Do you have a link to the new climate normals? Was going to check ORH snow, but can't seem to find them. Their normals for snowfall will still be contaminated by the late 1990s/early 2000s, but it will still be interesting to see the change.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We almost didn't even test him...the only reason we did is because there had been a case at his daycare like 8-10 days earlier and even though he tested negative a few days after that case, we figured maybe it was still in incubation period or something, so we tested him again when he was complaining of not feeling great and he had a really low grade fever (like around 100F) and a mild headache. Sure enough, it comes back positive.

Yeah my younger son never caught it from his older brother despite being all over him the whole time they were quarantined at home. Seems like it must take a pretty big viral load to get kids infected...esp toddlers.

Kids are amazing like that. Back in February, my 7 year old daughter had 100 degree fever and complained of a headache. After skiing that afternoon, she collapsed on the couch and slept for like 3 hours; basically in a coma. When she woke up the fever was gone and she went outside to go sledding. LOL the power of a youthful immune system right there.

It may have been COVID for all we know. Never got her tested. 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Do you have a link to the new climate normals? Was going to check ORH snow, but can't seem to find them. Their normals for snowfall will still be contaminated by the late 1990s/early 2000s, but it will still be interesting to see the change.

Nevermind, just found them on the BOX facebook page.

BOS 49.2" (!!)

ORH 72.9"

BDL 51.7"

PVD: 36.6"

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Man, BOS is going to be in for a lot of below average snowfall seasons with a 49.1" average now....get ready for all the news stories about climate change depleting their snowfall (while ignoring that it went up like 8 inches between the 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 norms)

[Spanks45]

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

one of the great mysteries.   The flu pandemics of past hit kids hard but this doesn't...

If one looks at this pandemic from strictly an ecological perspective, Covid has done what other diseases have done to other animal species when they become over populated, putting a strain on the environment. Typically the older/vulnerable population is largely affected. I'm not saying that is what this is, just something to discuss at the "water cooler"....

[tamarack]

24 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I got it from Boston NWS FB page

Must be a different data set, maybe Brainard Field or downtown?  For there to be an 11-inch increase, the 2011-20 period would need to be 33"/year snowier than 1981-90.  The '80s were terrible but not that terrible.
Checked my numbers (from Utah Climate Center and Climod2) and found a mistake:  Corrected BDL from my data is 47.0" for 81-10 and 51.5" for 91-20, so a 4.5" gain rather than the 2.7 I posted earlier.  Worth noting that the UCC data was missing 5 of 6 winters 96-97 to 01-02, which could cause issues in comparisons.

Edit:  The monthly numbers for 91-20 match my BDL almost exactly - couple months are 0.1" different, which could just be rounding error.  

[PhineasC]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

If one looks at this pandemic from strictly an ecological perspective, Covid has done what other diseases have done to other animal species when they become over populated, putting a strain on the environment. Typically the older/vulnerable population is largely affected. I'm not saying that is what this is, just something to discuss at the "water cooler"....

Many of the deaths were very old and very sick people in LTC facilities. I know people get upset by this line of thought, but how many of the excess deaths in 2020 were people who would have died within 12-16 months anyway? COVID simply accelerated these deaths by some months and bunched them up, creating a spike in the data. This is also even harder to think about when you figure many of these people who were destined to die soon had to spend the last year of life separated from their families in isolation. I think this is the biggest difference between COVID and the flu epidemics. The flu kills healthy young people at a much higher rate than COVID. You can't simply compare the raw death totals and draw conclusions about the impact of COVID to make policy decisions.

[WhitinsvilleWX]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We almost didn't even test him...the only reason we did is because there had been a case at his daycare like 8-10 days earlier and even though he tested negative a few days after that case, we figured maybe it was still in incubation period or something, so we tested him again when he was complaining of not feeling great and he had a really low grade fever (like around 100F) and a mild headache. Sure enough, it comes back positive.

Yeah my younger son never caught it from his older brother despite being all over him the whole time they were quarantined at home. Seems like it must take a pretty big viral load to get kids infected...esp toddlers.

Friend of mine got it. He had very little issues. Slight fever for a day or so (~100), runny nose. Mostly like a head cold. Was over it in about 5 days. Wife and 2 kids never got it. I'm convinced it all has to do with viral load with how sick and /or contagious you are. 

 

[WhitinsvilleWX]

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Many of the deaths were very old and very sick people in LTC facilities. I know people get upset by this line of thought, but how many of the excess deaths in 2020 were people who would have died within 12-16 months anyway? COVID simply accelerated these deaths by some months and bunched them up, creating a spike in the data. This is also even harder to think about when you figure many of these people who were destined to die soon had to spend the last year of life separated from their families in isolation. I think this is the biggest difference between COVID and the flu epidemics. The flu kills healthy young people at a much higher rate than COVID. You can't simply compare the raw death totals and draw conclusions about the impact of COVID to make policy decisions.

Death numbers year over year are pretty consistent. 2020 had a pretty big spike in death rates presumably due to covid. Will be interesting to see what the death numbers look like in 2021 and 2022. If your idea (bolded above) is correct, and I suspect it might be, there should be a noticeable dip this year and next year.

At any rate, there's enough here to keep some epidemiologists in grant money until they retire.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

My kids' old school was doing the whole nine yards. Bubbles drawn on the ground for each kid to sit in at recess, no balls or other play equipment, playground shut down. Same desk all day, can't get up except for two bathroom breaks one at a time. Laptop on, Zoom lesson all day with the teacher at home. Zero exception mask policy. In the second grade class, at least, the rule was you couldn't even turn your head to look behind you...

It was so dumb and harmful. We have been back to the school recently for a church function and there are still signs everywhere telling the kids to keep away from each other ("for their safety and the safety of others") along with arrows and bubbles on the floors.

It's all pretty gross, IMO. The total opposite of what you want to be teaching kids to make them sociable and well-adjusted.

I have definitely noticed a few of the kids my sons were friendly with have really changed over the last year. They have these crazy outbursts now, kinda destructive really, when they are finally let out of school and allowed to come over to use our pool or watch a movie. We let them take off the masks and they kind of go wild. They never used to be like that. Keeping kids rigidly boxed-in for 8-9 hours each day chained to a single desk is not good for them, IMO.

Agreed it is not the way things should be under normal circumstances.  Hopefully this will be the last pandemic in our lifetimes.  The kids I see seem to be "normal", but I did not know them last year, and who knows how this has affected them psychologically.  I really don't think it would have been wise to have it be like Sept 2019 though

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Agreed it is not the way things should be under normal circumstances.  Hopefully this will be the last pandemic in our lifetimes.  The kids I see seem to be "normal", but I did not know them last year, and who knows how this has affected them psychologically.  I really don't think it would have been wise to have it be like Sept 2019 though

I don't disagree with any of this. We are very glad we were able to homeschool. It really worked well for us. The transformation in my kids this year was amazing. They are all so much more outgoing now. It's definitely the opposite of the conventional wisdom around homeschooling, wherein people assume it leads to emotionally-stunted, shut-in kids. We have seen the exact opposite, actually. Some of this may just be perceived because other kids have become more withdrawn and cautious, hard to say. But my kids happily run up to everyone they meet, extend their hands, and introduce themselves. LOL

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I don't disagree with any of this. We are very glad we were able to homeschool. It really worked well for us. The transformation in my kids this year was amazing. They are all so much more outgoing now. It's definitely the opposite of the conventional wisdom around homeschooling, wherein people assume it leads to emotionally-stunted, shut-in kids. We have seen the exact opposite, actually. Some of this may just be perceived because other kids have become more withdrawn and cautious, hard to say. But my kids happily run up to everyone they meet, extend their hands, and introduce themselves. LOL

Yeah... I never understood the idea that homeschool kids were less social.  The ones I know had the gamut of personalities and successes/failures that "regular" school kids show.  

The quirkiness of kids in general is just unreal.  Some are like miniature accountant adults, others should be in the circus.  Not sure which I prefer... probably the circus ones...lol

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ha yup late 80s and 90s in the suburbs.  Every little news story or freak event would cause some parents to lose it.  “Can’t do that, a kid got maimed in Ohio last week doing that!”

That was probably the start of the news media freaking parents out.  Watching the nightly news filled with stories of one-off accidents and everyone saying here’s how you prevent that.

Mm ... that started the moment along the era-time gone past when the Industrial Media Complex realized how to turn every thumb swipe, mouse click, or television channel ping into a means to moving monies and make profit ...

Or, to your point - maybe what you say is just exposing the same phenomenon from a different turn of phrasing... Either way, when the IMC wired economics around informatics, we were doomed to ever see or hear of anything from a truly honest, nor unadulterated delivery. I mean, they always made ..or attempted to do so, make money off news but it's now seems it approaches unconstrained equivocation (or constrained by the 'ethics of profit' ether which means the former - )

Not meaning to bloviate at anyone ...but I cannot impress enough that the urgency of real nature only comes at you at the 'scary' rate of what you see, right now, standing up, walking to the window, and gazing out at the hillsides all afternoon until they fade under the auburn sky of sunset into darkness.  Yet, you'll find yourself still standing there ...waiting.

Somewhere in the mise en science of the spectacle they create, the engineering to super stimulate people into continuing to swipe, click and ping media tech... there are kernels of dismissible truth, or at worse manageable crisis ... guess what?  - somewhere else.  Maybe every 100 years some island sinks somewhere ...

It's perhaps hard to get people's heads outside of the media bubble ... but nothing out there is really all that real.  It's just exposing - nothing more.