Spring Banter

[Spanks45]

10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

No doubt, but the vaccine also kills people (in small numbers). I don’t think the rationale for vaccinating kids is really there right now. 

My wife and I are both scientists, she works in Pharma and we will choose to not vaccinate the kids until longer term studies have been done....We are both pro vaccine, but respect the long term studies on children that are still going through development. In the case of children, I think the benefits from the vaccine are not worth the unknowns from the long terms side effects that may exist when compared to their current risk from contracting Covid...for those in adulthood, I think it is a different story. My position on children could change if the virus becomes more virulent in children, which is still a possibility.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

I guess we'll see there. Just spitballing

Less natural immunity than other areas. Maine has the 4th least cases and deaths per capita

Vaccine coverage is excellent in the 65+ population (85%) but 43% in the 16 to 49 population. With little natural immunity the disease can still spread in younger people but with an ever decreasing case fatality rate. 

According to the Hopkins data, Maine's new cases are considerably higher than the national average, after a year of always being below that average, and seeing ICU cases at 80-90% of the post-holidays surge is cause for a bit of concern.  It is odd that a state near the top for vaccination percentage and with considerable restrictions still in place is having these numbers.  Are we merely testing at a far higher rate than elsewhere?   Also, in recent days nearly half of all new cases in Maine have been in folks age 30 or younger.  I've not seen a breakdown of ICU cases by age, but suspect it would show a much lower proportion of those young folks than do the new case numbers.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

My wife and I are both scientists, she works in Pharma and we will choose to not vaccinate the kids until longer term studies have been done....We are both pro vaccine, but respect the long term studies on children that are still going through development. In the case of children, I think the benefits from the vaccine are not worth the unknowns from the long terms side effects that may exist when compared to their current risk from contracting Covid...for those in adulthood, I think it is a different story. My position on children could change if the virus becomes more virulent in children, which is still a possibility.

in some ways children may not need the vaxx if enough adults get it.  Already the cases in schools are dropping in my town most likely b/c 70% of adults have gotten at least one shot

[OSUmetstud]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

According to the Hopkins data, Maine's new cases are considerably higher than the national average, after a year of always being below that average, and seeing ICU cases at 80-90% of the post-holidays surge is cause for a bit of concern.  It is odd that a state near the top for vaccination percentage and with considerable restrictions still in place is having these numbers.  Are we merely testing at a far higher rate than elsewhere?   Also, in recent days nearly half of all new cases in Maine have been in folks age 30 or younger.

Yeah its interesting. Like I said, Maine has less natural immunity than nearly any other state. People are also interacting more the last month or two than they did before. 

That's the least vaccinated cohort. So it makes sense you would see most of it there and not in older folks. 

16 to 29 

38% first dose, 24% fully.

If you include kids its 

19% first dose, 12% fully. 

https://www.maine.gov/covid19/vaccines/dashboard

[PhineasC]

13 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

My wife and I are both scientists, she works in Pharma and we will choose to not vaccinate the kids until longer term studies have been done....We are both pro vaccine, but respect the long term studies on children that are still going through development. In the case of children, I think the benefits from the vaccine are not worth the unknowns from the long terms side effects that may exist when compared to their current risk from contracting Covid...for those in adulthood, I think it is a different story. My position on children could change if the virus becomes more virulent in children, which is still a possibility.

Yep, agreed. 

[PhineasC]

31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

No evidence that Pfizer vaccine needs updating for variants, says BioNTech

https://www.thejournal.ie/no-evidence-pfizer-vaccine-update-variants-5433235-May2021/

Bad for the shareholders. 

[dendrite]

25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

New 30 year climo averages. We're getting warmer, but we're also getting snowier

Buffalo, NY: +0.7"

Rochester NY +2.5"

Syracuse NY +4.0"

Chicago, IL: +2.1"

Detroit, MI: +2.5"

Grand Rapids, MI: +2.6"

New York City, NY: +4.0"

Flint, MI: +4.7"

Boston, MA: +5.4"

Hartford, CT: +11.2"

Pittsburgh, PA +2.7"

More synoptic. Less LES.

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

More synoptic. Less LES.

Makes sense with less cold air. However, for lake Erie it helps a little as our lake usually freezes, but hasn't in a number of years. This has led to more lake effect events in February, a time when its usually frozen. 

[PhineasC]

Fauci needs to stop talking. 

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Fauci needs to stop talking. 

he says a surge in fall and winter is unlikely-how can one say that at this point in time?!?!?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

he says a surge in fall and winter is unlikely-how can one say that at this point in time?!?!?

I mean, is that outlandish though? Lots will be vaccinated by then. Also, define "surge." They'll be increases, but if he's comparing it to the last two seasons...it makes sense. 

[PhineasC]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

he says a surge in fall and winter is unlikely-how can one say that at this point in time?!?!?

He's also saying we might not get back to normal until next Mother's Day and we may need to always wear masks to combat the flu. He keeps going on the talk shows and answering dumb hypothetical questions. He needs to stop.

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean, is that outlandish though? Lots will be vaccinated by then. Also, define "surge." They'll be increases, but if he's comparing it to the last two seasons...it makes sense. 

perhaps, but what about variants and other factors like how long vaccines last-lots of variables out there.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

there's some parents who don't let their kids socialize to this day...just insane IMO

That protective or over-protective stuff has been going on long before COVID though, it just highlights it more.  I don’t have kids but growing up we all knew those parents and kids.

My sisters and I were joking just yesterday at Mothers Day gathering about our neighbors who had the most over protective mother on the planet... if they put rollerblades on, the kids had pillows like duct taped to them as padding, eat a cracker and can’t go near a pool for a full 30 minutes (might get a cramp and drown), could only sled on the mellow side not the steep hill, would stick her head outside while we played whiffleball every 3-5 minutes to make sure everyone was still breathing, etc.  Inside at dark, no questions asked.  Can’t socialize with those kids because of of them swore once. 

Parents will be parents. Those kids missed out on a lot of fun back then even without COVID, ha.  They turned out awesome though in the end.

 

[MJO812]

43 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Fauci needs to stop talking. 

He is a fraud

[MJO812]

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

He is a fraud

The guy has led our country through some of the most challenging health issues we've ever faced for many many years. You can disagree with him, but he's not a fraud.

[PhineasC]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That protective or over-protective stuff has been going on long before COVID though, it just highlights it more.  I don’t have kids but growing up we all knew those parents and kids.

My sisters and I were joking just yesterday at Mothers Day gathering about our neighbors who had the most over protective mother on the planet... if they put rollerblades on, the kids had pillows like duct taped to them as padding, eat a cracker and can’t go near a pool for a full 30 minutes (might get a cramp and drown), could only sled on the mellow side not the steep hill, would stick her head outside while we played whiffleball every 3-5 minutes to make sure everyone was still breathing, etc.  Inside at dark, no questions asked.  Can’t socialize with those kids because of of them swore once. 

Parents will be parents. Those kids missed out on a lot of fun back then even without COVID, ha.  They turned out awesome though in the end.

 

I think the biggest issue is at least back then most of those kids went to school and saw how other kids lived. Now they have been kept inside for over a year on Zoom school in some cases. And some schools have also been like little mini-jails. Kids can't even talk to their friends. So that just adds to the shut-in misery of these kids.

But yeah, crazy neurotic overprotective parents have existed for a while now, it really became a major fad in the 1990s.

[Bostonseminole]

England reported 0 deaths today.. it can be done

[dendrite]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

England reported 0 deaths today.. it can be done

China hasn't had a death in over a year!

 

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The guy has led our country through some of the most challenging health issues we've ever faced for many many years. You can disagree with him, but he's not a fraud.

I don't think he is a grifter or anything like that. I'm sure he's a great scientist. But he is not an economist, psychiatrist, ethicist, childhood education expert, lawyer, or politician. Yet, people keep asking him questions from those domains and then he answers...

[PhineasC]

Just now, dendrite said:

China hasn't had a death in over a year!

 

LOL

[Bostonseminole]

Just now, dendrite said:

China hasn't had a death in over a year!

 

well I don't trust that data lol

[Bostonseminole]

32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

he says a surge in fall and winter is unlikely-how can one say that at this point in time?!?!?

he's been spot on to be honest on predicting surges.. folks can disagree on all the other crap he tries to talk about, but on this he has predicted most surges

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I don't think he is a grifter or anything like that. I'm sure he's a great scientist. But he is not an economist, psychiatrist, ethicist, childhood education expert, lawyer, or politician. Yet, people keep asking him questions from those domains and then he answers...

Yeah...unfortunately "getting back to normal" isn't purely a question for an epidemiologist. This is especially true as the virus becomes less threatening due to increased vaccine intake. It becomes a question of trade-offs. Everything involves trades-off when it comes to major policy decisions. There is no such thing as 100% safe in a free society.

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I think the biggest issue is at least back then most of those kids went to school and saw how other kids lived. Now they have been kept inside for over a year on Zoom school in some cases. And some schools have also been like little mini-jails. Kids can't even talk to their friends. So that just adds to the shut-in misery of these kids.

But yeah, crazy neurotic overprotective parents have existed for a while now, it really became a major fad in the 1990s.

Our school has been really trying to keep things as normal as possible.  But CDC guidelines translate into state education leader guidelines that have been tough to negotiate.    Kids can talk to their friends here to some extent, but we have to work to keep them from huddling up together (for now).  Hopefully this will get easier on them as we move forward.  I know evey school and district has done this differently

 

 

[PhineasC]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah...unfortunately "getting back to normal" isn't purely a question for an epidemiologist. This is especially true as the virus becomes less threatening due to increased vaccine intake. It becomes a question of trade-offs. Everything involves trades-off when it comes to major policy decisions. There is no such thing as 100% safe in a free society.

LOL yes.

This is like asking a dermatologist if it will ever be OK to sit outside in the sun without sunscreen on.

He is going to say, "I don't recommend sitting outside without at least SPF 50 sunblock (applied every 30 minutes), long sleeves and long pants, a wide-brimmed hat, and keeping your time outside limited to 45 minutes or less".

 

[Bostonseminole]

i was looking at your typical flu season in the US, 30-40K deaths officially.. that is from September to March..  that is like 200-300 per day.. I mentioned before, < 300 seems like a good number, specially now with a vax available like the flu..  while it's nice to get to 0.. I don't think that will ever happen here in the US.

[ORH_wxman]

BTW, I don't think I posted in this thread much last week...but my older son caught covid at daycare....had to be home for 10 days along with his younger brother who then became a direct contact. My younger son is 21 months old....he never caught it from my older son. We never attempted to separate them as it would have been basically impossible anyway.

My older son only had some mild symptoms for perhaps 2 days. Then he was running 100mph around the house and yard for the next 7-8 days. He went back to daycare on Friday.

 

My wife and I are already vaxxed, but we still tested a couple times and they never came back positive.

 

[PhineasC]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Our school has been really trying to keep things as normal as possible.  But CDC guidelines translate into state education leader guidelines that have been tough to negotiate.    Kids can talk to their friends here to some extent, but we have to work to keep them from huddling up together (for now).  Hopefully this will get easier on them as we move forward.  I know evey school and district has done this differently

 

 

My kids' old school was doing the whole nine yards. Bubbles drawn on the ground for each kid to sit in at recess, no balls or other play equipment, playground shut down. Same desk all day, can't get up except for two bathroom breaks one at a time. Laptop on, Zoom lesson all day with the teacher at home. Zero exception mask policy. In the second grade class, at least, the rule was you couldn't even turn your head to look behind you...

It was so dumb and harmful. We have been back to the school recently for a church function and there are still signs everywhere telling the kids to keep away from each other ("for their safety and the safety of others") along with arrows and bubbles on the floors.

It's all pretty gross, IMO. The total opposite of what you want to be teaching kids to make them sociable and well-adjusted.

I have definitely noticed a few of the kids my sons were friendly with have really changed over the last year. They have these crazy outbursts now, kinda destructive really, when they are finally let out of school and allowed to come over to use our pool or watch a movie. We let them take off the masks and they kind of go wild. They never used to be like that. Keeping kids rigidly boxed-in for 8-9 hours each day chained to a single desk is not good for them, IMO.