Spring Banter

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I just wander around mountains all day. This is new to me.  I just picture investing like Wolf of Wall Street... total mayhem, drugs and cash. 

Stowe dumpsters full of cash and coke as the bears guard them...decisions.

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I just wander around mountains all day. This is new to me.  I just picture investing like Wolf of Wall Street... total mayhem, drugs and cash. 

I did work for a PE shop that involved delisted companies a long time ago. I had lunch with our counsel one day in my first week and I still remember something he said about the Pink Sheets we targeted, but which could just as easily be ascribed to Wall Street generally. He said,  "We operate in a pretty dark corner of the market. You need to think about these target companies the way Obi Wan thought about Mos Eisley: You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy."

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Lots of people may sadly end up leveraged and underwater at some point in the coming years. ...Or maybe we go full Wiemar and their two bedroom makes them paper trillionaires...

Zillow thinks our modest 3 bedroom raised ranch is worth like half a million bucks....lol. We bought it 4 years ago for 345k. There's no supply on the market right now which is part of the issue. As soon as anything within a sniff of 500k goes on the market, it's gone around here...usually in a bidding war/all cash offers. 500 is the new 400 these days.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I just wander around mountains all day. This is new to me.  I just picture investing like Wolf of Wall Street... total mayhem, drugs and cash. 

That’s a better life than sitting in front of a screen worrying about red candles in your portfolio.

[NorEastermass128]

Real estate is outrageous right now. I bid on a property in Salisbury that got 25 offers after one weekend and a bid $45k over asking on a $365k listing won. (The winning bid wasn’t me)

[NorEastermass128]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Zillow thinks our modest 3 bedroom raised ranch is worth like half a million bucks....lol. We bought it 4 years ago for 345k. There's no supply on the market right now which is part of the issue. As soon as anything within a sniff of 500k goes on the market, it's gone around here...usually in a bidding war/all cash offers. 500 is the new 400 these days.

My brother bought in Lowell in 2015 for $265k. Zillow now thinks his house is worth $445k!

[PhineasC]

Glad to hear folks are getting in, making a little scratch, and getting out. If you think of this like a casino and learn to control your gambling impulses, things will have a better chance of working out.

I hate to sound like someone's grandpa, but I still don't think trading in ideas that literally have zero realistic underpinning (such as shitcoins and Gamestop) will ever be more than a slot machine. Probably even less reliable than a slot machine, actually. There is not enough GenZ meme power in the entire universe to change the basic fact that humans ultimately want things that have real tangible value, in the long term.

There is so much fakery in the market today, and things are getting way too overheated again. Another one that is silly is the NFT craze. Many of these things being sold have zero real value.

[radarman]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It's not meant in that way, obviously.  It's like hoping for a tornado to rip shit up. You don't want to see the lives of people get torn upside down. It's just the principle of it.

I liken it more to hoping the tornado intercept vehicle goes to the moon... yeah there will be some collateral damage, but play stupid games...

[BrianW]

 

33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Get into other cryptos have that more long term stability. Cardano or Stella are cheap. There are others. Buy like 50 coins and then look 10years from now to see if your kids colleges are paid off from a $100-$200 gamble at the crypto casino. Also coinbase gives you free coins when you watch their videos. You’ll learn a little and realize some of this has actual staying power.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/10-best-cryptocurrencies-invest-2021-143026001.html

 Yep. My first $150 bitcoin purchase from 2016 is now worth over $20k. I bought a bunch in early 2016 when it was in the $300-400 range and never sold. 

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, BrianW said:

 

 Yep. My first $150 bitcoin purchase from 2016 is now worth over $20k. I bought a bunch in early 2016 when it was in the $300-400 range and never sold. 

 

 

Nice. Let that take you to the moon. 

[Brian5671]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Zillow thinks our modest 3 bedroom raised ranch is worth like half a million bucks....lol. We bought it 4 years ago for 345k. There's no supply on the market right now which is part of the issue. As soon as anything within a sniff of 500k goes on the market, it's gone around here...usually in a bidding war/all cash offers. 500 is the new 400 these days.

it's insane around here-even more so than the 2006 peak.    Stuff that went for 500K now goes for 650 or even 700K in hours.   Literally no inventory....

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, BrianW said:

 

 Yep. My first $150 bitcoin purchase from 2016 is now worth over $20k. I bought a bunch in early 2016 when it was in the $300-400 range and never sold. 

 

 

A lot of people did this just for kicks and now have tens of thousands in BTC. 

Those are the stories people love to hear and that causes them to buy in aka FOMO.

We never hear about the 90% of stories that end with people losing money. 

[radarman]

Folks should sell their houses high and move to Burptown where it's still nice and cheap.  Sure snowfall will be hit and miss, but we're practically Kansas in the warm season

[DavisStraight]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Zillow thinks our modest 3 bedroom raised ranch is worth like half a million bucks....lol. We bought it 4 years ago for 345k. There's no supply on the market right now which is part of the issue. As soon as anything within a sniff of 500k goes on the market, it's gone around here...usually in a bidding war/all cash offers. 500 is the new 400 these days.

Problem is where would you go if you sold it for 500K, you'd just get into a bidding war with the others who took advantage of selling their house for top dollar. If I had a place to go that wasn't expensive I'd sell now and hunker down for a few years. 

[DavisStraight]

38 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I did work for a PE shop that involved delisted companies a long time ago. I had lunch with our counsel one day in my first week and I still remember something he said about the Pink Sheets we targeted, but which could just as easily be ascribed to Wall Street generally. He said,  "We operate in a pretty dark corner of the market. You need to think about these target companies the way Obi Wan thought about Mos Eisley: You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy."

Pinks are the wild west of stock trading, I dabbled in the penny stocks for a short while and decided it wasn't for me.

[Hoth]

22 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Problem is where would you go if you sold it for 500K, you'd just get into a bidding war with the others who took advantage of selling their house for top dollar. If I had a place to go that wasn't expensive I'd sell now and hunker down for a few years. 

Tornado ravaged Hamden, CT is still relatively cheap, mainly because our town finances and property taxes are a disaster.

[Hoth]

Can anyone explain to me why Bill Hwang is still a free man? You would think defrauding a half dozen banks to the tune of billions would be enough to warrant a warrant, but apparently not.

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Correct. Can’t short coins.

I believe you can short derivatives though

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ethereum-price-highs-triggered-55m-044900412.html

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Glad to hear folks are getting in, making a little scratch, and getting out. If you think of this like a casino and learn to control your gambling impulses, things will have a better chance of working out.

I hate to sound like someone's grandpa, but I still don't think trading in ideas that literally have zero realistic underpinning (such as shitcoins and Gamestop) will ever be more than a slot machine. Probably even less reliable than a slot machine, actually. There is not enough GenZ meme power in the entire universe to change the basic fact that humans ultimately want things that have real tangible value, in the long term.

There is so much fakery in the market today, and things are getting way too overheated again. Another one that is silly is the NFT craze. Many of these things being sold have zero real value.

Things are worth what people are willing to pay for them. Like the virtual planet that sold for 6 million. Does that thing really have any value? There are now talks about virtual trading cards, and its becoming a big business. We're moving into a world like that movie Tron. 

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/bulls/ct-sports-trading-cards-virtual-20210331-gjzaedcarze4rktov32lzjfixq-story.html

 

[ORH_wxman]

34 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Problem is where would you go if you sold it for 500K, you'd just get into a bidding war with the others who took advantage of selling their house for top dollar. If I had a place to go that wasn't expensive I'd sell now and hunker down for a few years. 

Well we aren't selling anyway....at least within the next year or two. We may upgrade at some point, but we'll prob let the market come back to earth some which would probably help us. Our starter-type home is much less likely to fall as much in value as a home a tier or two up since nobody is building starters....just a reality of the supply. So we'd probably make out pretty well.

But yeah, I do think many could take advantage if they want to....esp with more remote work now. Sell your overpriced house and pocket all that profit and then move into some sleepy town where you can prob pay cash for a nice house and still keep your income via remote work. That will definitely be a trend in the next 5-10 years imho.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Things are worth what people are willing to pay for them. Like the virtual planet that sold for 6 million. Does that thing really have any value? There are now talks about virtual trading cards, and its becoming a big business. We're moving into a world like that movie Tron. 

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/bulls/ct-sports-trading-cards-virtual-20210331-gjzaedcarze4rktov32lzjfixq-story.html

 

Correct....but that is a different discussion versus investing money longer term. When you invest, you want your money to increase in value over the long term....or at the very minimum, hold value against inflation if you are a very conservative saver.

12 months ago, a shed filled with hand sanitizer was worth a small fortune. Now it's probably not worth that much more than before the pandemic. So the question to ask, is this entity going to hold value?

[PhineasC]

17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Things are worth what people are willing to pay for them. Like the virtual planet that sold for 6 million. Does that thing really have any value? There are now talks about virtual trading cards, and its becoming a big business. We're moving into a world like that movie Tron. 

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/bulls/ct-sports-trading-cards-virtual-20210331-gjzaedcarze4rktov32lzjfixq-story.html

 

But this is more akin to a guy selling cure-all elixirs off the back of a wagon. Sure, it "has value" as long as the hype lasts. But the bottom falls out quickly and there is literally zero residual value once you drink the concoction and realize it does nothing.

[PhineasC]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Correct....but that is a different discussion versus investing money longer term. When you invest, you want your money to increase in value over the long term....or at the very minimum, hold value against inflation if you are a very conservative saver.

12 months ago, a shed filled with hand sanitizer was worth a small fortune. Now it's probably not worth that much more than before the pandemic. So the question to ask, is this entity going to hold value?

People who think this current craze is sustainable are going to lose the farm.

This is just like someone who thinks they can "beat the house" in Vegas consistently and come out ahead.

[BuffaloWeather]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Correct....but that is a different discussion versus investing money longer term. When you invest, you want your money to increase in value over the long term....or at the very minimum, hold value against inflation if you are a very conservative saver.

12 months ago, a shed filled with hand sanitizer was worth a small fortune. Now it's probably not worth that much more than before the pandemic. So the question to ask, is this entity going to hold value?

 

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

But this is more akin to a guy selling cure-all elixirs off the back of a wagon. Sure, it "has value" as long as the hype lasts. But the bottom falls out quickly and there is literally zero residual value once you drink the concoction and realize it does nothing.

I guess it depends. I don't see how the virtual world won't continue to grow and prosper. Items in video games have been sold for thousands for over 2 decades online. They in themselves have no "real" value, but they are sold for real life money for people that want them in their games. Impossible to predict the future, but if I had to bet it would be on this continuing. Covid kind of pushed us forward about a decade in terms of everyone working virtually, communicating virtually, etc...

[DavisStraight]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

People who think this current craze is sustainable are going to lose the farm.

This is just like someone who thinks they can "beat the house" in Vegas consistently and come out ahead.

Wonder how that guy who's has a million in bitcoins waiting for 10 million before he sells makes out, greed could get the best of him, I'd sell at least half or more and let the rest ride.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

I guess it depends. I don't see how the virtual world won't continue to grow and prosper. Items in video games have been sold for thousands for over 2 decades online. They in themselves have no "real" value, but they are sold for real life money for people that want them in their games. Impossible to predict the future, but if I had to bet it would be on this continuing.

There's definitely a niche market for some of this stuff. I don't think we want to confuse the idea that something may be in an unsustainable bubble as the same as being "it will be 100% worthless".....it can be somewhere in between. Crypto is a different market dynamic right now than some diehard video game recluses who will pay a grand for a virtual sword. We don't see a ton of people throwing life savings into virtual swords. Crypto has a lot of hallmarks of a bubble craze.

The question for people thinking of crypto right now as an investment is do they think it's going to hold or increase in value over the long term? If you are just trying "time the peak", then that is different...that's just gambling. There are some technical experts who can do that type of thing pretty consistently with success (akin to the casino gambler who has an edge on the house by card-counting or exploiting a dealer weakness).

[PhineasC]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

I guess it depends. I don't see how the virtual world won't continue to grow and prosper. Items in video games have been sold for thousands for over 2 decades online. They in themselves have no "real" value, but they are sold for real life money for people that want them in their games. Impossible to predict the future, but if I had to bet it would be on this continuing. Covid kind of pushed us forward about a decade in terms of everyone working virtually, communicating virtually, etc...

But those things have some entertainment value inside of the game, at least. People are now buying meme images... it's nonsense. Some kind of mass hysteria situation, I think.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Can anyone explain to me why Bill Hwang is still a free man? You would think defrauding a half dozen banks to the tune of billions would be enough to warrant a warrant, but apparently not.

There isn’t enough transparency in the US market. Hwang was invisible with swaps until it crashed. We need a Euro like rule where the party bearing the economic risk of an investment must reveal its interest. 

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's definitely a niche market for some of this stuff. I don't think we want to confuse the idea that something may be in an unsustainable bubble as the same as being "it will be 100% worthless".....it can be somewhere in between. Crypto is a different market dynamic right now than some diehard video game recluses who will pay a grand for a virtual sword. We don't see a ton of people throwing life savings into virtual swords. Crypto has a lot of hallmarks of a bubble craze.

The question for people thinking of crypto right now as an investment is do they think it's going to hold or increase in value over the long term? If you are just trying "time the peak", then that is different...that's just gambling. There are some technical experts who can do that type of thing pretty consistently with success (akin to the casino gambler who has an edge on the house by card-counting or exploiting a dealer weakness).

I think 99% of most people don't completely understand crypto outside of those in the tech industry. It has future use in banking, healthcare, real estate, supply chain, etc...It isn't something useless. We are seeing NFL players take their paychecks in Bitcoin, that doesn't happen unless there is something real there.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blockchain.asp

In terms of lottery and investing. Tesla has been overvalued for years. It's P/E ratio was trading at 1,000 times historic earnings which is insane. It didn't stop people from making a bunch of money off of it the last few years. My coworker works there and cashed out stock options to buy a house with it.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Zillow thinks our modest 3 bedroom raised ranch is worth like half a million bucks....lol. We bought it 4 years ago for 345k. There's no supply on the market right now which is part of the issue. As soon as anything within a sniff of 500k goes on the market, it's gone around here...usually in a bidding war/all cash offers. 500 is the new 400 these days.

I used to think the surge in appreciation was that affluence expansion ring phenomenon, slowly propagating west of Boston ... In the 1980s, it was out to about Acton, Sudbury ...then it made it's way to Littleton, Shrewsbury through the '90s and now deep into the 2000's, Ayer and down to Sutton and the towns surrounding Worcester and some of Worcester itself. 

But now I'm not so sure - it seems to be an American economic modality?

Guessin' ... it may be more attractive to sink wealth into real-estate, because people "sense" a sort of ... not just volatility but really like vulnerability about financial industry handling... ??

Not an economist but as an observation, perhaps a combination of factors... Like 1, there's an after-taste after 2008 ( which ironically was credit swap debacle that started with over-valuation of real-estate ..).  2, Climate Change and green industry arrival not just threatening to crowd into the Fossil Fuel-based commodities frame-work, it kind of has to?  Like an 'or else' pall hanging over everything.  It seems that people more than ever just don't trust at a social level - which is a problem at a cultural scale anyway...- but that also extends tentacles around economics, which is in fact inherently a social construct so ....   

I don't know why, but it seems there's more than just the ring of affluence phenomenon ... Interesting. 

Anyway, I bought small house here in Ayer.  2 bedroom, 1 bath, kitchen and living area. In fact the laundry is part of the kitchen.  I mean any smaller it'd be a "tiny house"... Big lawn though... I guess if I scored a windfall I could raise the place and there's enough space to put in a new foundation and bigger footprint, and still have a couple of box gardens... blah blah. But I get texts and phone calls occasionally probing to buy my house cash.  They don't talk dollars ...just that they want the house.  Probably to do just what I said, I'm guessing.  Get me out of here, raise the place, ...put in a new one for 500K ...and they'd clear 100 after the dust settles...  I was told that the appreciation here in town is 38% in the median,  but nearly doubled in some the gem neighborhoods.