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You know... napkin arithmetic -

according to NRP's website ... 232 million single dose have been administered... while the U.S. pop is in the ballpark of 332.5 million disgusting bags of pestilence - lol

That seems to flat out suggest, just shy of 70% of the population has ~ 75% protection already  ( I read that 70+% .. if it is wrong, don't lampoon me already)   ... It is noted that the booster/2nd shot pushes that 90+ etc...

Now...I have also read that there is a 230 to 280 spread ( million ) is the modeled magic HI range where the pathogenicity of this thing immediately runs out reaching spreading targets... blah blah..  so, assume for the sake of discussion 250 million.

Since we are approximating ... 232 is close enough to 250 ( and both are between 230 and 280..), it seems that if assume an even distribution ( which we can't making this whole post moot LOL ),  That means that the magic range has 75% protection already.

so, ...it gets into a murky probability and statistics math but ... it seems intuitive that we should already be observing a drop in daily new cases.

 

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Just now, WhitinsvilleWX said:

That's assuming the positives that are reported each day are real infections and people are actually sick and infectious. I have serious doubts.

Worldometers has shown a drop in cases from 60K or so down to 35-45K the last few days....

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20 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

I walked down to Chipotle in Central Sq Cambridge and got lunch. I'd say 99.9% had on masks walking down the street. Granted, the order doesn't lift till Friday at midnight. Baker has timeline, I have mine. :)

I'll go back noon Friday and see what its like then. Any bets?

I love that ...

cuz, of course - at 12:00:01 AM Saturday morning it is suddenly vastly safer than it was a the dreaded moment of 11:59:59 Friday night

They should have it like ...every 5 minutes, between now and 11:59:59 PM Friday... you are allowed to move your mask down another 2 millimeters.  So very slowly over time ... more and more nostril gets exposed... then, just the top of the upper lip.. It'll be weird Friday afternoon, with all these masked expose half an open mouth as the top edge of masks slowly are allow to creep down... but stick with it! Because by supper, half the bottom lip will finally be available for BJs again..

.  ...because virus abide these mask rules and time statutes, no doubt!

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13 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

That's assuming the positives that are reported each day are real infections and people are actually sick and infectious. I have serious doubts.

I knew someone would pick up on the tongue-in-cheek of that stuff...

I just think there's almost an embarrassment of conceit going on ...like humanity knows! And all this shit is real?   and people are willing to dive on swords for it - nice.

And the funny part is, if there is a disingenuous reporting that is blanketing qualification truths under a common heading ... that is divisive to do that to a common plebeian sort of class of people dependent upon over-arcing policy makers at a civility scope and scale.  It's manipulative for one... uh, yar it is!

So why ...safety.. ? Perhaps.   I mean, if we stop and explain it, it may be too late?  That ship sailed months and months ago, as air apparent the urgency waned.

No, my grandfather .. that cantankerous 'matter-of-facto' early to mid last Century no-nonsense republican ... ( of which is a dying breed and really is not a part of the modality of the present day GOP... ) used to say, "follow the money". 

Is some thing, some one's some where gaining from this "impact impression" making.   

 

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14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Worldometers has shown a drop in cases from 60K or so down to 35-45K the last few days....

Yeah I was just looking at that... I hadn't gone to that public URL recently but ... I am not sure that isn't part of last weekend's 'weekly dip' ?

I've also noticed that the weekends have been falsely sending optimism in this regard - ha.  Anyway, I wonder if that survives the week. 

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23 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

I walked down to Chipotle in Central Sq Cambridge and got lunch. I'd say 99.9% had on masks walking down the street. Granted, the order doesn't lift till Friday at midnight. Baker has timeline, I have mine. :)

I'll go back noon Friday and see what its like then. Any bets?

nothing will change, people are sheep out here 

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23 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

I walked down to Chipotle in Central Sq Cambridge and got lunch. I'd say 99.9% had on masks walking down the street. Granted, the order doesn't lift till Friday at midnight. Baker has timeline, I have mine. :)

I'll go back noon Friday and see what its like then. Any bets?

75% will still be wearing masks

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2 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

who knows. Why tell the public that if you're vaccinated you can remove your masks outside, but have to wear them in big crowds. Some may interpret that message as masks work better than vaccines.

Yeah... that caveat of crowds really toned down the actual progress the message relayed. People are counting it as a huge step forward, when in reality, it’s basically still said you need a mask when around others outdoors.

Either you do or you don’t. That was a half measure yesterday 

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15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah... that caveat of crowds really toned down the actual progress the message relayed. People are counting it as a huge step forward, when in reality, it’s basically still said you need a mask when around others outdoors.

Either you do or you don’t. That was a half measure yesterday 

The CDC is likely never going to get to the point where they say everyone can freely take off the masks for good. They will certainly continue to say that unvaccinated people "should" wear masks at all times when not totally alone. They may even say that vaccinated people need to keep wearing masks "in certain situations." They are always going to err on the side of caution. The question is, will governments and businesses adhere to this guidance?

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21 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

 The question is, will governments and businesses adhere to this guidance?

Depends on the location and wokeness of the company. Where I work, I'm totally convinced it will be sometime in 2022 before we get to go mask free. My company loves to virtue signal. 

We'll wear them on airplanes forever. The shoe bomber happened 20 years ago. We're still going barefoot through security. 

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1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

I kinda want the indoor mandate to last forever.  People are gross and I don't want nazties breathing their germ laden halitosis on me while waiting in line at the store.  Stay the F away from me!!

uhm, germ exposure helps keep your immune system trimmed and burning.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know... napkin arithmetic -

according to NRP's website ... 232 million single dose have been administered... while the U.S. pop is in the ballpark of 332.5 million disgusting bags of pestilence - lol

That seems to flat out suggest, just shy of 70% of the population has ~ 75% protection already  ( I read that 70+% .. if it is wrong, don't lampoon me already)   ... It is noted that the booster/2nd shot pushes that 90+ etc...

Now...I have also read that there is a 230 to 280 spread ( million ) is the modeled magic HI range where the pathogenicity of this thing immediately runs out reaching spreading targets... blah blah..  so, assume for the sake of discussion 250 million.

Since we are approximating ... 232 is close enough to 250 ( and both are between 230 and 280..), it seems that if assume an even distribution ( which we can't making this whole post moot LOL ),  That means that the magic range has 75% protection already.

so, ...it gets into a murky probability and statistics math but ... it seems intuitive that we should already be observing a drop in daily new cases.

 

Perhaps 232 million total doses have been administered in the US.  No way that 232 million people have received a vaccine.

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Perhaps 232 million total doses have been administered in the US.  No way that 232 million people have received a vaccine.

About 140 million Americans have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine and more than 95 million are now fully vaccinated, as of April 26. If you’re wondering how many people have been vaccinated, the number continues to rise with three vaccines approved for emergency use in the U.S.

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Weird, I get periodic PCP emails and thought this message was odd given where we're supposed to be going with the pandemic. Maybe it's not covid-risk related at all but cost cutting/saving method? I know telemed was being used more often since last year, but they seem to want to make this more permanent. Not a bad thing, but I just interpreted it as more of "the pandemic is getting worse, we must distance from each other more" kinda message.

"During the COVID-19 Pandemic, with your health and safety in mind, we are making changes to how we interact with our patients.  We have started using Telehealth visits (computer and smartphone video visits) through our patient portal."

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2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

it's been about 18 hours so far for me and all i have is a mildly sore arm

nice!

I'm much better now than I was this morning...just pretty exhausted. Took a 30-minute nap during lunch and that helped quite a bit. Chills and fever are gone though (outside of random bursts of chills) as is the slight headache. Arm is a bit sore but nothing compared to the first shot.

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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

nice!

I'm much better now than I was this morning...just pretty exhausted. Took a 30-minute nap during lunch and that helped quite a bit. Chills and fever are gone though (outside of random bursts of chills) as is the slight headache. Arm is a bit sore but nothing compared to the first shot.

that's just the 5G messaging back to Gates

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2 hours ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

I walked down to Chipotle in Central Sq Cambridge and got lunch. I'd say 99.9% had on masks walking down the street. Granted, the order doesn't lift till Friday at midnight. Baker has timeline, I have mine. :)

I'll go back noon Friday and see what its like then. Any bets?

I dunno if it's still there, but the Bon Me in Kendall was awesome and well worth a visit. The Rachel at the Jewish deli next door was also life altering, but should be served with Lipitor on the side. 

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3 hours ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

Either it works or it doesnt. Why does a crowd or not matter?

Thats a rhetorical question BTW

My understanding is that the ubiquitous blue and while cotton mask doesn't stop many germs but dramatically cuts down on their exit velocity, thus allowing diffusion close to the mask-wearer rather than germs sprayed directly into the face of some poor shmuck standing 3-6 feet away.  If so, the mask is irrelevant when one is outside and away from others but could have some use outside in close quarters with others.  (Of course, my understanding may be flat out wrong.  :wacko2: )

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Over/under on Redsox runs scored against Jacob Degrom today . 
 

This guy added 1.6mph to his fastball and over 100rpms in spin rate in 2020 . Averaged 98.6mph and this year has a era of 0.31

It’s going to be fun to watch a truly elite pitcher.  Maybe they’ll get a couple hits?  His last start was pure dominance.

In his first four starts, he set a new MLB record with 50 strikeouts, mowing down nearly half the batters he faced. He has also batted in more runs as a hitter (2) than he’s allowed on the mound (1). 

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