Spring Banter

[PhineasC]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This is econ 101 too...if you can't find people to fill your crappy job, then give them more incentive (raise wages and/or benefits). We'll see what happens when unemployment winds down more, but it takes 2 to tango. A healthy job market will have plenty of competition. Now, we can go down the rabbit hole on how healthy competition is stifled by things like monopolies (and very generous unemployment benefits), but no need to go down there.

Bottom line (whether it's "fair" or not, all barriers aside), if you want to attract workers, make it worth their while.

I mean, this sounds good, but the govt needs to butt out of the equation for this to work. Small restaurants are basically competing with the govt now for employees. That's grossly unfair.

And it isn't just the unemployment thing, the govt also has been manipulating this with stimulus payments and initiatives such as free broadband at home and the push for free healthcare and college. Rent and eviction moratoriums also contribute.

Talk to younger Millennials; a decent number of them are literally waiting for the free school and free healthcare (and some are holding out for free housing too).

[PhineasC]

The govt has created an artificial labor shortage, but here we are pretending like there really aren't enough unskilled 18 year olds out there to deliver pizzas so we need to pay the delivery boy $25/hr with PTO and full bennies.

Just don't be shocked when the jobs simply evaporate and now even more people are on the govt dole. Or your cheese pizza costs $22.

[rclab]

Good morning all. When it gets to the point of ‘Logan’s Run’ I’ll qualify to be first on line for ascension. (Fine discussion, thank you) As always.......

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea...when you can make more money on unemployment, maybe the capitalistic system that takes advantage of cheap labor is to blame? When the fed min wage sits at $7.25 while all accounts/studies say it should be pushing $20, we have a massive wealth gap problem and not a lazy problem. These CEOs who have come out and blamed the feds for too much UB should look in the mirror and possibly cut their millions and billions by a fraction and raise their worker wages.  Yea, Jeff Bezos...it starts with you. Nice mega yacht you bought that needs it’s own yacht. Certain media outlets and big names do a great job of diluting the truth to keep the minions angry at the wrong entity so they can just continue reeling in the money. 
 

GL to the next generations. The system is broken. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning all. When it gets to the point of ‘Logan’s Run’ I’ll qualify to be first on line for ascension. (Fine discussion, thank you) As always.......

I would have been dead for 23 years.  That’s a lot of snowstorms to miss

[bch2014]

17 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I mean, this sounds good, but the govt needs to butt out of the equation for this to work. Small restaurants are basically competing with the govt now for employees. That's grossly unfair.

And it isn't just the unemployment thing, the govt also has been manipulating this with stimulus payments and initiatives such as free broadband at home and the push for free healthcare and college. Rent and eviction moratoriums also contribute.

Talk to younger Millennials; a decent number of them are literally waiting for the free school and free healthcare (and some are holding out for free housing too).

So I agree with you on the free college piece-totally unnecessary given the labor force dynamics we see... Especially given that a large portion of those who find themselves in trouble with student debt are those who never complete their degree. Finish your degree and you likely won’t have a problem. Making the debt dischargeable in BK would seem to be the more reasonable policy.

With regard to the free broadband, I’m not sure what government program you’re referring to... But if you’re referring to rural broadband expansion, that was one of the few parts of the most recent Biden plan I agreed with... If businesses in Berlin, NH can’t communicate efficiently with the rest of the world, why would they locate there? Would seem to be a great economic boom to rural America, and wouldn’t directly benefit individuals/provide a disincentive to work, but rather spur job creation in areas that lag. 
 

I do think it’s amazing though the way you talk about my generation. In my friend groups, none of us live at home, all of us have good jobs or are pursuing a MD or PhD, etc... Most of my friends are pretty liberal too (I’m more conservative than all/most of them), but don’t fit the mold of government free-rider. I’m 25-so statistically my friends are anomalous-but I think it points to the continued bifurcation in American society. Lots of people doing great, and lots doing not-so-great. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is econ 101 too...if you can't find people to fill your crappy job, then give them more incentive (raise wages and/or benefits). We'll see what happens when unemployment winds down more, but it takes 2 to tango. A healthy job market will have plenty of competition. Now, we can go down the rabbit hole on how healthy competition is stifled by things like monopolies (and very generous unemployment benefits), but no need to go down there.

Bottom line (whether it's "fair" or not, all barriers aside), if you want to attract workers, make it worth their while.

Agree but corps are greedy so trusting them pay livable good wages for low skilled jobs is like trusting wall street to regulate itself. McDonald’s came out bitching about the jobs report saying if they raise their wages, the Big Mac price goes up lol. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I am not sure how different it would be if this same thing happened 30 years ago. Maybe on the margins but probably not the larger picture. This is econ 101....when you subsidize something (in this case unemployment), you get more of it. When you tax something, you get less of it. These days, everything gets amplified with millions of opinions on social media too.

Either way, it's going to be winding down this year so we'll see how the employment numbers respond.

I was saying earlier, that this may be a golden opportunity for would-be entrepreneurs over the next year or two....a lot of small businesses folded up so there will be some demand to take advantage of.

 

Generation doesn't matter.  Circumstance does.  All decisions come with negative externalities, obviously keeping the larger economy afloat with unemployment assistance was chosen knowing that there would be a labor shortage bleeding out on the end of it, affecting those who pay low wages primarily.  Pretty soon that'll be over but human behavior will never change... circumstance dictates behavior.  Just like wages and demand for trades right now.  People will head that way because it's seen to be lucrative.  I still believe there's a wave of change and reallocation coming in the service industries over the next decade or two.

[rclab]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I would have been dead for 23 years.  That’s a lot of snowstorms to miss

If I remember the age cut off right, for me it would have been 35 or 45. I would have missed a lot of cold rain and suppression. As always ....

[powderfreak]

15 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The govt has created an artificial labor shortage, but here we are pretending like there really aren't enough unskilled 18 year olds out there to deliver pizzas so we need to pay the delivery boy $25/hr with PTO and full bennies.

Just don't be shocked when the jobs simply evaporate and now even more people are on the govt dole. Or your cheese pizza costs $22.

My large pizza costs $20+ bucks here already.  But wages are up too and the Piecasso pizza has no shortage of staff, place seems to have excess staff.  No surprise.  This is what I paid $100 grand to learn in my ECON degree .

The entire world is run on economic theory.  Incentives and disincentives.  If you remove emotion from it, it's all very simple.

[powderfreak]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is econ 101 too...if you can't find people to fill your crappy job, then give them more incentive (raise wages and/or benefits). We'll see what happens when unemployment winds down more, but it takes 2 to tango. A healthy job market will have plenty of competition. Now, we can go down the rabbit hole on how healthy competition is stifled by things like monopolies (and very generous unemployment benefits), but no need to go down there.

Bottom line (whether it's "fair" or not, all barriers aside), if you want to attract workers, make it worth their while.

Bingo.  You get it.  This is what I've been saying all along.  We aren't talking emotional or fair.... it's just how the world works.   If people don't want to work for you, you need to do something to get them.  Not stand there and tell them they are lazy or shame them for not taking your crappy job, ha.

Incentives, bonuses for staying on for 6 months, full benefits for even part-time workers, etc.  All that is starting to happen.

 

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

My large pizza costs $20+ bucks here already.  But wages are up too and the Piecasso pizza has no shortage of staff, place seems to have excess staff.  No surprise.  This is what I paid $100 grand to learn in my ECON degree .

The entire world is run on economic theory.  Incentives and disincentives.  If you remove emotion from it, it's all very simple.

In ECON 101 did they tell you it’s good to be in competition with the Federal govt for staff? With all due respect, this is very far from being the free market you learned about in school. Get out of VT sometime, the labor shortage is real and acute. Paying all the busboys 25/hr is not the solution.  

[PhineasC]

21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea...when you can make more money on unemployment, maybe the capitalistic system that takes advantage of cheap labor is to blame? When the fed min wage sits at $7.25 while all accounts/studies say it should be pushing $20, we have a massive wealth gap problem and not a lazy problem. These CEOs who have come out and blamed the feds for too much UB should look in the mirror and possibly cut their millions and billions by a fraction and raise their worker wages.  Yea, Jeff Bezos...it starts with you. Nice mega yacht you bought that needs it’s own yacht. Certain media outlets and big names do a great job of diluting the truth to keep the minions angry at the wrong entity so they can just continue reeling in the money. 
 

GL to the next generations. The system is broken. 

Again, sounds great, but the large corps dodge taxes and just pass the cost down to consumers and small suppliers. The smaller businesses that can’t write-off a billion dollars take this on the chin. 

[UMB WX]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Again, sounds great, but the large corps dodge taxes and just pass the cost down to consumers and small suppliers. The smaller businesses that can’t write-off a billion dollars take this on the chin. 

How do we fix that Maga problem?

[bch2014]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Again, sounds great, but the large corps dodge taxes and just pass the cost down to consumers and small suppliers. The smaller businesses that can’t write-off a billion dollars take this on the chin. 

That’s not even true though-large retailers have lower consumer prices than smaller retailers. It’s also false that they don’t pay taxes (except for Amazon, but believe it or not, they’re still a relative bit player in retail). 
 

A sample of effective tax rates for large retailers:

KR: 23.2%
ACI: 19.8%

WMT: 33.4%

HD: 23.9%

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Bingo.  You get it.  This is what I've been saying all along.  We aren't talking emotional or fair.... it's just how the world works.   If people don't want to work for you, you need to do something to get them.  Not stand there and tell them they are lazy or shame them for not taking your crappy job, ha.

Incentives, bonuses for staying on for 6 months, full benefits for even part-time workers, etc.  All that is starting to happen.

 

Agree but the problem runs deeper than the free market correcting itself. For example: America has the highest childcare costs in the world. We pay $2400/mo for two kids. It is a demanding job to watch and care for a classroom full of 2yr olds and yet, the teachers make like $11/hr which around here is not enough to make a livable wage. Two teachers close up daycare at 6pm and head to stop n shop for a part time night shift. I know others work other jobs as well. And not it’s because they want to make more money...it’s because their full time day job doesn’t support their basic living needs. You have to be really passionate to perform that job, I sure as heck wouldn’t do it lol. We should reward that but instead, our system is designed to take advantage of the labor. 
 

How do we fix this? If the business raises their wages, then they will most likely raise our costs. Parents would eventually take their kids elsewhere...and around and around we go. 

[bwt3650]

We keep using the term "free" as in free college, free housing, free broadband etc.  I think I remember learning somewhere, nothing in life is free.  The college isn't giving you free tuition; someone is paying for it.  Do you need a basic K-12 education to be productive and function in life; most do.  But you don't need college to be productive, even very successful.  College is not some sort of right for everyone.  I'd be favor more pre-school over college.

In regards to min wage,  why can't this just be left up to the states, period.  Cost of living varies tremendously throughout the country.  Big difference in $15 an hour in Mississippi vs. New Jersey.

[NorEastermass128]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Agree but the problem runs deeper than the free market correcting itself. For example: America has the highest childcare costs in the world. We pay $2400/mo for two kids. It is a demanding job to watch and care for a classroom full of 2yr olds and yet, the teachers make like $11/hr which around here is not enough to make a livable wage. Two teachers close up daycare at 6pm and head to stop n shop for a part time night shift. I know others work other jobs as well. And not it’s because they want to make more money...it’s because their full time day job doesn’t support their basic living needs. You have to be really passionate to perform that job, I sure as heck wouldn’t do it lol. We should reward that but instead, our system is designed to take advantage of the labor. 

I don’t blame those that choose not to have kids or wait to have kids if you don’t have family or cheap childcare. Most can’t spend as much or more than their monthly mortgage payment for childcare and juggle all other expenses. 

[Spanks45]

13 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I don’t blame those that choose not to have kids or wait to have kids if you don’t have family or cheap childcare. Most can’t spend as much or more than their monthly mortgage payment for childcare and juggle all other expenses. 

When my family moved to CT, I decided to stay home rather than spend 2+ grand per month in daycare costs. It was an adjustment, but our family adapted and I believe it was for the better...more time spent as a family by far, happier kids, happier parents...

[NorEastermass128]

9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

When my family moved to CT, I decided to stay home rather than spend 2+ grand per month in daycare costs. It was an adjustment, but our family adapted and I believe it was for the better...more time spent as a family by far, happier kids, happier parents...

Sure. If feasible.  I know many that require two incomes, as the savings from one parent staying home don’t offset the loss of one income. Of course this will vary by location. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

The stone mason who works on my house up in NH has a grip like steel and he moves big rocks around like it's nothing. Dude doesn't go to the gym at all but looks like one of the Spartans from the movie 300.

I did stonework for about three years when we first moved to Greenfield.  I needed extra work while I was trying to reestablish my life out here and an old friend of mine had a high-end stonework business.  
My whole body was in great shape. It’s not like I looked that much bigger or more muscular but I could crush apples with one hand.  Lol

The pay was fantastic but it ended up being too hard on my body and I also became a stay at home dad for two years.  

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

In ECON 101 did they tell you it’s good to be in competition with the Federal govt for staff? With all due respect, this is very far from being the free market you learned about in school. Get out of VT sometime, the labor shortage is real and acute. Paying all the busboys 25/hr is not the solution.  

Have you not listened to anything I've written?  You're right, we are currently at this moment in competition with the gov't assistance to get people to work. Everyone is vastly understaffed around here too... can't find them.  So that's why incentives and pay are rising.  I sit all day long in discussions about how to attract staff... increasing employee housing, wages, benefits.  My wife has it top of mind every day as she can barely staff.  She probably works 15 more hours a week right now than she did prior to the pandemic because she's stuck doing tasks part-timer older folks used to help with as a way to get out of the house a few days a week.

We all can't wait till the unemployment assistance ends to see what happens.  I think you seem to think I agree with a lot of this stuff... I don't have an opinion on it, I just know what needs to happen to get people in our doors working for us.  And grabbing them off the street and forcing them to work doesn't work in the good ol' U.S. of A.

I would highly recommend not going into hospitality or restaurant business as it will drive you batshit crazy.  Can't shame or force people to work for you to operate your business.  That attitude doesn't get bodies in the door.

[PhineasC]

51 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

How do we fix that Maga problem?

I don't think Jeff Bezos dodging taxes when he owns one of the most liberal newspapers in the country and one of the most liberal grocery store chains in the country is really a "MAGA problem."

[PhineasC]

47 minutes ago, bch2014 said:

That’s not even true though-large retailers have lower consumer prices than smaller retailers. It’s also false that they don’t pay taxes (except for Amazon, but believe it or not, they’re still a relative bit player in retail). 
 

A sample of effective tax rates for large retailers:

KR: 23.2%
ACI: 19.8%

WMT: 33.4%

HD: 23.9%

 

Retail is dead. Who said anything about retail?

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Have you not listened to anything I've written?  You're right, we are currently at this moment in competition with the gov't assistance to get people to work. Everyone is vastly understaffed around here too... can't find them.  So that's why incentives and pay are rising.  I sit all day long in discussions about how to attract staff... increasing employee housing, wages, benefits.  My wife has it top of mind every day as she can barely staff.  She probably works 15 more hours a week right now than she did prior to the pandemic because she's stuck doing tasks part-timer older folks used to help with as a way to get out of the house a few days a week.

We all can't wait till the unemployment assistance ends to see what happens.  I think you seem to think I agree with a lot of this stuff... I don't have an opinion on it, I just know what needs to happen to get people in our doors working for us.  And grabbing them off the street and forcing them to work doesn't work in the good ol' U.S. of A.

I would highly recommend not going into hospitality or restaurant business as it will drive you batshit crazy.  Can't shame or force people to work for you to operate your business.  That attitude doesn't get bodies in the door.

To me, your posts are like if the NFL randomly added 100 lbs of ballast to the footballs for certain games, but you were still sitting there watching going, "Well, aw shucks it's still a fair game, the players just need to train harder next time to chuck that heavy ball down the field!"

[UMB WX]

39 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

We keep using the term "free" as in free college, free housing, free broadband etc.  I think I remember learning somewhere, nothing in life is free.  The college isn't giving you free tuition; someone is paying for it.  Do you need a basic K-12 education to be productive and function in life; most do.  But you don't need college to be productive, even very successful.  College is not some sort of right for everyone.  I'd be favor more pre-school over college.

In regards to min wage,  why can't this just be left up to the states, period.  Cost of living varies tremendously throughout the country.  Big difference in $15 an hour in Mississippi vs. New Jersey.

That's fair.. Its been a long time coming for states to step up or get left behind.   The horror to ensue a $15 minimum wage hike sure makes a lot of people clutch their pearls for a plethora of concerns . But lets be real.. If a business can’t survive without paying their employees slave wages then they shouldn’t be in business. 

LOL at ripping Mississippi and New Jersey off. smh

 

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, bch2014 said:

So I agree with you on the free college piece-totally unnecessary given the labor force dynamics we see... Especially given that a large portion of those who find themselves in trouble with student debt are those who never complete their degree. Finish your degree and you likely won’t have a problem. Making the debt dischargeable in BK would seem to be the more reasonable policy.

With regard to the free broadband, I’m not sure what government program you’re referring to... But if you’re referring to rural broadband expansion, that was one of the few parts of the most recent Biden plan I agreed with... If businesses in Berlin, NH can’t communicate efficiently with the rest of the world, why would they locate there? Would seem to be a great economic boom to rural America, and wouldn’t directly benefit individuals/provide a disincentive to work, but rather spur job creation in areas that lag. 
 

I do think it’s amazing though the way you talk about my generation. In my friend groups, none of us live at home, all of us have good jobs or are pursuing a MD or PhD, etc... Most of my friends are pretty liberal too (I’m more conservative than all/most of them), but don’t fit the mold of government free-rider. I’m 25-so statistically my friends are anomalous-but I think it points to the continued bifurcation in American society. Lots of people doing great, and lots doing not-so-great. 

I don't have an issue with something like broadband access.

I was simply stating that pretending this is a "free labor market" and that normal market forces can be counted on is a joke. It's incredibly manipulated, easily the most manipulated it has been since the New Deal and WWII.

[UMB WX]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I don't think Jeff Bezos dodging taxes when he owns one of the most liberal newspapers in the country and one of the most liberal grocery store chains in the country is really a "MAGA problem."

So only republicans are allowed to use the loop holes without scrutiny.  Build a wall though.... keep our slaves in. USA 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, UMB WX said:

So only republicans are allowed to use the loop holes without scrutiny.  Build a wall though.... keep our slaves in. USA 

So should Bezos be allowed to use loopholes or not? 

I am glad folks are getting to see why you don't post. LOL

[BuffaloWeather]

It's pretty sad that $300 in extra Federal UI benefits is causing a nationwide employment shortage, meanwhile you got people like Phin making 500k a year in NH staring at the white mountains all day, life ain't fair. 

What is the average home price in Boston? How far is $300 a week getting you over there?