Spring Banter

[Ginx snewx]

55 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Couldn't open link.  Paywalled?   Maybe I need to turn off my VPN?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00224-3/fulltext

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

RIP Tawny Kitaen.  

There she goes again 

 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

She could drape herself over the hood of a car with the best of them.

I remember when she got arrested for beating up her the partner, Angel’s pitcher Chuck Finley. 

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My conclusion 

The real key with the vaccine is the percent it reduces severe Covid (hospitalization, organ failure , death ) 

Otherwise  a significant part of  population will never move on and be focused on the fact you can still test positive . 

We are  basically in the biggest extended phase 3 safety trial the world has seen (This is not a critique and not meant to be fearful). Basically a calculated role of the dice that will save lives .

Yes, agreed. That’s why an obsession with case counts is pointless and unhelpful. 

[Bostonseminole]

Depends on the vaccine.
For things like mumps, measles, German measles, and polio, the vaccine is probably as good as natural. Those vaccines use the whole virus. You make antibodies and T cells that recognize the entire viral coat, not just the business end. So when you “see” it again, you mount an immune response to the entire viral protein coat. 
For recombinant or mRNA vaccines, your just immune to the business end. If the business end mutates too much, the immunity you have won’t work as well whereas if you have immunity to the entire virus, it can work better since the whole thing won’t mutate at the same rate.

Yes, should have been specific to the type of vax, whole virus is better.


.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I knew it was only a matter of time until these studies came out. Everyone was in such a rush. 

I mean, I don’t see anything earth shattering? Prevents severe infection was the goal... it also is pretty good at preventing infection period in most people.

I don’t see this as a big gotcha! moment 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Doge Chart Looks like it’s ready to make a decent spike next few hours .  68 cents at the moment 

My bigger question is how many buyers there will be after SNL 

 

 

[WhitinsvilleWX]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Yes, agreed. That’s why an obsession with case counts is pointless and unhelpful. 

Absolutely. If people are waiting until case counts get below 5000 or even 10000 per day before they feel “safe”, they’ll be waiting a very very long time, and we’ll be masked indoors forever in certain states and cities. 

[DavisStraight]

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

I remember when she got arrested for beating up her the partner, Angel’s pitcher Chuck Finley. 

Apparently she had anger problems, I remember that too, think she hit him with a high heel, don't remember the details.

[DavisStraight]

36 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Doge Chart Looks like it’s ready to make a decent spike next few hours .  68 cents at the moment 

My bigger question is how many buyers there will be after SNL 

 

 

Might dive, might spike, I don't envy you guys with that decision.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

13 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Might dive, might spike, I don't envy you guys with that decision.

I’m not in 

But I’m changing my tune w crypto  just regarding its risk / reward 

I see real crypto Bitcoin/ Ethereum  

and “fake “ crypto 

Doge/ Safemoon etc 

The joke is that both the fake ones have made people very real money ..and money they could never make in stock market returns 

life changing money , the charts are other worldly 

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/safemoon/

I mean its up 100x or 10,000% since early March in Real money 

[WhitinsvilleWX]

6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

 think she hit him with a high heel, don't remember the details.

Maybe he had a shoe and trample fetish and it got out of hand?

[OSUmetstud]

7 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

AWT

Eric ( Radarman) posted this elsewhere 

Super informative paper... King's College of London lead... Sample size 627,383 vaccinated patients

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00224-3/fulltext

A few highlights:

1) As many have suspected, the reaction to the vaccine is far worse if you've had Covid already.

"Systemic side-effects were more common (1·6 times after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (aka Oxford/AstraZeneca) and 2·9 times after the first dose of BNT162b2 (aka Pfizer)) among individuals with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection than among those without known past infection. Local effects were similarly higher in individuals previously infected than in those without known past infection (1·4 times after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 1·2 times after the first dose of BNT162b2). "

2) There is no difference in side affects if you had covid recently, or quite awhile ago

" No consistent difference in occurrence of systemic or local adverse effects was observed between individuals who reported a positive test result within the past 6 months and those who reported they received a positive test result at least 6 months ago "

3) Infection risk reduction peaked at 60% for AstraZeneca at day 12, 69% Pfizer (shot1) at day 21-44, 72% at day 44-59 (shot 2)

"Significant reductions in infection risk were seen starting at 12 days after the first dose, reaching 60% (95% CI 49–68) for ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 69% (66–72) for BNT162b2 at 21–44 days and 72% (63–79) for BNT162b2 after 45–59 days."

4) In a separate sample group over an observation period of 14mos (starting Jan 2020) 10.8% of unvaxxed participants tested positive, and 3% of vaxxed participants tested positive.  (Note- vaccine wasn't ready in Jan 2020, so it's a shorter observation window implying less chance of exposure... but also to note some of those 3% likely contracted it shortly after getting the vaccine, before it takes affect)

"3106 of 103 622 vaccinated individuals and 50 340 of 464 356 unvaccinated controls tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection."

My conclusions... 

a) the vaccines generally work and reduce risk substantially, but perhaps not as well as was reported in phase 3 trials

b) the vaccines are nowhere near as effective as natural immunity

c) if you've previously had covid, you are very likely to have substantial side effects no matter how long it's been since you've had it, with almost nothing to gain

 

This is infection risk not symptomatic covid risk. Phase 3 trials looked at the latter. 

Both natural and vaccine immunity should have greater effectiveness at reducing symptomatic covid, hospitalizations, and deaths, but a smaller effectiveness at reducing infection. 

There is no comparison here between natural immunity and vaccine immunity in this study. 

[PhineasC]

Vaccinating people who had COVID within the last 3-6 months is ridiculous and unhelpful. 

[radarman]

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

There is no comparison here between natural immunity and vaccine immunity in this study. 

I agree but note I didn't post this here and that statement was within the unseen context of other articles that I posted that did examine such

[OSUmetstud]

19 minutes ago, radarman said:

I agree but note I didn't post this here and that statement was within the unseen context of other articles that I posted that did examine such

I haven't seen any studies yet that compared post vaccine infection with post infection infection. I'd imagine they're both pretty effective. The main advantage of the vaccine is obviously the lack of mortality and morbidity. 

If I had to guess, vaccines are better at preventing infection due to the strong antibody response but the natural virus might be better for longevity against variants due to more epitopes from the whole virus. 

 

[PhineasC]

13 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I haven't seen any studies yet that compared post vaccine infection with post infection infection. I'd imagine they're both pretty effective. The main advantage of the vaccine is obviously the lack of mortality and morbidity. 

If I had to guess, vaccines are better at preventing infection due to the strong antibody response but the natural virus might be better for longevity against variants due to more epitopes from the whole virus. 

 

Cool, glad folks are getting protection. Now let’s get back to normal. Thanks. 

[radarman]

5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I haven't seen any studies yet that compared post vaccine infection with post infection infection. I'd imagine they're both pretty effective. The main advantage of the vaccine is obviously the lack of mortality and morbidity. 

If I had to guess, vaccines are better at preventing infection due to the strong antibody response but the natural virus might be better for longevity against variants due to more epitopes from the whole virus. 

Antibody response is significantly higher with the vaccine but overall immunity appears to better with natural immunity.  They haven't totally pinned down the mechanism but there are several hypothesized reasons.  

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6529/eabf4063

Also there was an easily googleable Danish study that calculated a >80% reduced risk of reinfection, compared to the 60-72% reduced risk of infection from the vaccines that was mentioned in the post earlier from King's College.

 

[radarman]

Officially confirmed cases of reinfection are absolutely miniscule, but I think it requires viral sequencing to verify, which is obviously impractical.  So the much larger sample sized studies using pre and post vaccine/infection PCR tests are relied on, even with some known behavioral biases and false positive potential (esp post covid) 

[radarman]

Also reinfection appears to behave similarly as post vaccine infection, which is to say, less severe.

Worth noting that the Danish study suggests elderly reinfection potential is a lot higher with only like 50% reduced risk.  But for <65 the reinfection protection is very high, nearly 90%.

[weathafella]

15 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

They used to sell a blend of wine called Two Buck Chuck for $2.  Not sure about now

Charles Shaw.  Had a half a glass once and ended up with a blinding headache.   

[STILL N OF PIKE]

.55 cents

[bch2014]

In Tennessee/Kentucky (Fort Campbell area) this weekend... Honestly not much of a difference here in terms of masks compared to NYC, which surprised me. Most every business here is still requiring masks. Definitely was expecting lower compliance based on what I saw in South Carolina in March.

 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

.55 cents

I told people to invest in Ethereum not shit coins.   

[HIPPYVALLEY]

12 minutes ago, bch2014 said:

In Tennessee/Kentucky (Fort Campbell area) this weekend... Honestly not much of a difference here in terms of masks compared to NYC, which surprised me. Most every business here is still requiring masks. Definitely was expecting lower compliance based on what I saw in South Carolina in March.

 

 

I would say 70% of people I see in public are still wearing masks in Massachusetts and we are one of the states with the highest vaccine compliancy.

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I told people to invest in Ethereum not shit coins.   

But Elon got his mother Doge for Mothers Day.

[PowderBeard]

5 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I told people to invest in Ethereum not shit coins.   

If it really went nuts (got >$1) and started to be supported by places like Coinbase then the ride would keep going. I'll be curious if those April peaks of .40-.48 act like support now from the bottom falling out. 

[Hoth]

8 hours ago, weathafella said:

Charles Shaw.  Had a half a glass once and ended up with a blinding headache.   

Stuff was like drinking antifreeze.

[S&P]

2nd Pfizer Thursday same arm. Pounded water before and after. Zero side effects except for a slight soreness in the spot of the shot, less than 1st shot , that was gone in 24 hours

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, PowderBeard said:

If it really went nuts (got >$1) and started to be supported by places like Coinbase then the ride would keep going. I'll be curious if those April peaks of .40-.48 act like support now from the bottom falling out. 

my guess wound be a weak bounce in that .40-.43 area and then doing the falling knife routine thru it  
 

Looking at Many of the crypto’s closer Yesterday  and the “shitcoins” many of them are being traded on technical analysis  , I.E  When you look at many of their charts , they break out when pushing thru technical resistance levels . Sure , they are purely speculative but not much different than the SPAC craze to me . Getting in early or employing some technical analysis and trading them looks to me to have merit .