Spring Banter

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

51 minutes ago, bch2014 said:

One under discussed issue in this thread on the price/availability of housing is the role that NIMBYs play in stifling development.

It is nearly impossible to develop a new neighborhood in the northeast these days... And God forbid you try to build new apartments... In the town I grew up in (Concord, MA), people get their panties in a wad if you try to build apartments or condos, claiming it will “alter the character of the town.” Of course, the same cranks bitching about development are the same ones who have BLM signs in their yard.

Here in NYC, a development was just approved in my Financial District/Seaport neighborhood after years of red tape... The objection: it was “architecturally inappropriate.” So one would think it was replacing a building that the Dutch had built... Nope, it was replacing a parking lot. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/champ.gothamist.com/champ/gothamist/news/smaller-plan-250-water-street-south-street-seaport-approved-landmarks-commission

I live in aPretty desirable location... about a mile to the highway, but a secluded, wooded area, bordering on the large hockomock swamp.

The development planning goes back over a decade now, but it was held up for months and maybe even a year by neighbors trying every avenue to prevent the street from being put in. The argument ranged anywhere from more traffic (it’s 14 houses lol) to inadequate well water supply (that was pretty much debunked and they were told there was no legitimate basis for that). 
 

it was a classic case of not in my backyard. Everyone resists this type of chance pretty fiercely these days.

I think it’s also a play to see what they can get out of the deal. A new road, sidewalks, etc etc. I believe the end result of my street being put in was sewer was run down to it, so people along the route had the option of tying into it.

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 hours ago, Hoth said:

It is crazy. And the Fed/Treasury know this, but have clearly backed themselves into a corner. Note how quickly Yellen reversed her comments about raising rates to combat inflation when the market dropped a measly 2% yesterday. The stock/credit/real estate markets have become so bubbly, and so much individual savings/wealth has been thrown into them and other nonsense like shitcoins, that they are now a significant risk to the economy if they falter. The Fed has no choice but to promise zero rates and more emergency QE even though the economy is growing at an almost unheard of rate and showing signs of overheating.

This is not your parents stock market Or economy .

The financialization of the economy And the End of the sort of standard business cycle that correlated with stock market peaks and valleys (and Fed lowering and raising of rates ) is in the past . The financial system has been on low interest rate morphine since 2009 and (now we have QE to infinity purchases on top of that ) zero interest rates is a place central banks often get stuck (they can’t admit it ) but they do . Japan has been at zero for 35 years . 

The US stock market has been a great store of wealth (if you invested fully into Index funds) this has been the case for 2 generations . During this time the dollar has been at the pillar of the global financial system . The future of the world is almost certainly more globalized in nature and US stock and bond market is not likely to remain the sole currency at the top a generation (less) from now . The market is in for serious volatility given the boom bust cycles we have been in , the continuous emergency accommodation the central bank need  to sustain to keep pensions solvent . This doesn’t mean that some crash is on the way , it just means that there are plenty of warnings signals should one occur . The entire G8!s so deep into debt , debt saturation levels have made growth so difficult to come by (outside China ) ..just 8 trillion In stimulus LOL and reopening a closed economy is all it takes to have the US economy “rolling”.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Hedge funds have been net sellers of stocks the last  3 weeks as have institutional funds (Retail has of course stepped in and bought the dip)
 

That in and of itself has is not that wild but apparently hedge funds are selling more than they have since ....2008  Which is slightly spooky 

This is a quick technical video from a trader I have followed for years . Reason for posting is it shows a Narrowing rising wedge that SP 500 has traded in for a year , we have bounced off lower support yesterday and upper support this morning so maybe some fireworks when it chooses a direction to break out 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1390042236935626752

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I feel horrible for first time wannabe home buyers.  There are basically no options available for them in most places right now.  
There are a lot of overbid, speculative purchases,  being initiated by profit seekers and people who actually just want a deed on a decent place to live, are stuck paying bloated rents.  
We have a small but efficient, early 80’s,  two bedroom custom ranch, on 3 acres and our valuation has gone up an absurd 25% in the past year.  
Greenfield taxes are already horrifically high,  I told my wife she is never to allow an assessor inside to see the improvements we have made.
 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Hedge funds have been net sellers of stocks the last  3 weeks as have institutional funds (Retail has of course stepped in and bought the dip)
 

That in and of itself has is not that wild but apparently hedge funds are selling more than they have since ....2008  Which is slightly spooky 

This is a quick technical video from a trader I have followed for years 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1390042236935626752

They are all pouring into crypto’s.  

[PhineasC]

Meanwhile inner cities are getting hollowed-out and turned into war zones...

[BrianW]

38 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I feel horrible for first time wannabe home buyers.  There are basically no options available for them in most places right now.  
There are a lot of overbid, speculative purchases,  being initiated by profit seekers and people who actually just want a deed on a decent place to live, are stuck paying bloated rents.  
We have a small but efficient, early 80’s,  two bedroom custom ranch, on 3 acres and our valuation has gone up an absurd 25% in the past year.  
Greenfield taxes are already horrifically high,  I told my wife she is never to allow an assessor inside to see the improvements we have made.
 

Yeah its bad. I have a ton of friends with decent jobs but there is nothing affordable out there. With the rise in materials and labor I read it's near impossible to even build a small new house an average person could afford. 

I heard the rental market is tough as well. So many landlords got screwed during the eviction moratorium they are now requiring huge deposits and near perfect credit scores. Rental prices are way up too. 

 

[NorEastermass128]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Meanwhile inner cities are getting hollowed-out and turned into war zones...

Not Boston. Maybe Baltimore. 

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Not Boston. Maybe Baltimore. 

Yes, places like Baltimore. Detroit. Chicago. Philly.

There are plenty of small starter homes in these places. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

52 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yes, places like Baltimore. Detroit. Chicago. Philly.

There are plenty of small starter homes in these places. 

At some point (maybe in many years) those areas will also undergo gentrification and become desirable again.   A number of smaller cities that no one was interesting in 10 years ago are really booming (Indianapolis, Nashville etc). 

[wxeyeNH]

58 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Meanwhile inner cities are getting hollowed-out and turned into war zones...

I graduated UMBC in 1979 as a Geography Major.  I didn't go the Meteorologist route because of the math and physics.  Anyhow, my senior paper was the Diurnal and Seasonality of Baltimore's urban heat island.  The city had big impacts of nighttime minimums and daytime maximums as well as heavier precipitation on the east side as thunderstorms seem to intensify going over the city.  I bring this all up because looking at 37 years of satellite pictures it seems there is quite a bit more green space in the city as row houses by the thousands get demolished.  It would be interesting to run the current data through the same algorithms I used to see if the heat island is less intense. On the other hand the suburbs have expanded.  

[PhineasC]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

At some point (maybe in many years) those areas will also undergo gentrification and become desirable again.   A number of smaller cities that no one was interesting in 10 years ago are really booming (Indianapolis, Nashville etc). 

That is true, but gentrification brings with it other issues. In neighborhoods in Baltimore where it has occurred, prices skyrocket as a bunch of white liberals move in, pushing out the original poor (usually African-American) residents. The new residents then form HOA-style orgs to "keep out the riff-raff" and force them into even worse parts of the city. 

I expect the usual hypocritical suspects to drop emojis on this post instead of addressing this harsh truth or buying themselves a starter home in a city such as Baltimore, however. LOL

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That is true, but gentrification brings with it other issues. In neighborhoods in Baltimore where it has occurred, prices skyrocket as a bunch of white liberals move in, pushing out the original poor (usually African-American) residents. The new residents then form HOA-style orgs to "keep out the riff-raff" and force them into even worse parts of the city. 

I expect the usual hypocritical suspects to drop emojis on this post instead of addressing this harsh truth or buying themselves a starter home in a city such as Baltimore, however. LOL

Some good investment opportunities in cities like that if you know what you are doing...which I don’t. Lol.   I wouldn’t live there just due to the humidity, never mind crime etc. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, BrianW said:

Yeah its bad. I have a ton of friends with decent jobs but there is nothing affordable out there. With the rise in materials and labor I read it's near impossible to even build a small new house an average person could afford. 

I heard the rental market is tough as well. So many landlords got screwed during the eviction moratorium they are now requiring huge deposits and near perfect credit scores. Rental prices are way up too. 

 

Come out to the boonies of N Central MA. Cheap houses aplenty.  Teeth not so much

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Come out to the boonies of N Central MA. Cheap houses aplenty.  Teeth not so much

“Last dentist for 40 miles “ is posted Heading west on route 2 Westminster 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The realtor we worked with said she’d probably list our home somewhere around 575-600k right now given the market and improvements we’ve made since moving in. We bought for 405k in March of 2019.

Shes also saying anyone with any contingencies are basically out of luck right now. Unless you have complete and approved financing in hand, or cash, forget it.

[PhineasC]

24 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Some good investment opportunities in cities like that if you know what you are doing...which I don’t. Lol.   I wouldn’t live there just due to the humidity, never mind crime etc. 

Definitely. It's very hard to buy something rundown and just sit on it, however. The lower-level daily crime is overwhelming in parts of the city. Crimes such as theft, squatting, destruction of property, ripping out the copper from the walls, drug use, etc make it very hard to simply buy a cheap row home and wait for gentrification. Someone I know recently tried to do it and his place has been ransacked many times. He had to basically leave it as a bombed-out shell for now. He still routinely finds evidence of attempted forced entry when he goes down there to check on it.

[Brian5671]

26 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The realtor we worked with said she’d probably list our home somewhere around 575-600k right now given the market and improvements we’ve made since moving in. We bought for 405k in March of 2019.

Shes also saying anyone with any contingencies are basically out of luck right now. Unless you have complete and approved financing in hand, or cash, forget it.

yeah alot of people saying here on the home inspection-do one, but don't ask for anything to be fixed.....

[CoastalWx]

Just hold tight. It will burst.

[DavisStraight]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just hold tight. It will burst.

Always done, funny talking to realtors and other people in the business think it's not going to, it's just going to level off, I've been doing this almost 40 years, it goes up, it comes down, always happens. The higher it goes that further it falls, seen it too many times. Maybe this time I can actually make some real money if I play it right.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Come out to the boonies of N Central MA. Cheap houses aplenty.  Teeth not so much

I actually went through hubbardston last weekend. I kept seeing your log on and thought I had never been. Do you live near the guy with the big plastic Chicken in his yard?

[DavisStraight]

Just now, kdxken said:

I actually went through hubbardston last weekend. I kept seeing your log on and thought I had never been. Do you live near the guy with the big plastic Chicken in his yard?

I've been through a few times, I think its the pallet capital of the US.

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I've been through a few times, I think its the pallet capital of the US.

Lots and lots of trees. Is that all private land along route 62?

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

 In neighborhoods in Baltimore where it has occurred, prices skyrocket as a bunch of white liberals move in, pushing out the original poor (usually African-American) residents.

Debating if this is a good question to ask but I'm genuinely curious, why are only liberals moving back into the city and not conservatives?  You pointed out the political affiliation, just trying to think through the "why" one group over another would move back into the city.  One more drawn to the country lifestyle, land and freedom, away from fast-paced city life?  Running for the mountains?

Not looking for opinions on political affiliation, but just a general curiosity of behavior.

[powderfreak]

33 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Lots and lots of trees. Is that all private land along route 62?

So much wood.  Contact your doctor if wood remains for more than 4 hours.

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Debating if this is a good question to ask but I'm genuinely curious, why are only liberals moving back into the city and not conservatives?  You pointed out the political affiliation, just trying to think through the "why" one group over another would move back into the city.  One more drawn to the country lifestyle, land and freedom, away from fast-paced city life?  Running for the mountains?

Not looking for opinions on political affiliation, but just a general curiosity of behavior.

This is a split that has existed in this country since the 1950s, and probably before. It's an interesting question for sure. 

The gay community actually plays a large role in gentrification, and the fact is they lean left to a large degree. 

https://www.vice.com/en/article/nz5qwb/when-it-comes-to-gentrification-lgbtq-people-are-both-victim-and-perpetrator

Of course, there are also factors such as the draw of art and music venues that exist in urban areas, along with restaurants.

[HoarfrostHubb]

55 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I actually went through hubbardston last weekend. I kept seeing your log on and thought I had never been. Do you live near the guy with the big plastic Chicken in his yard?

Lol. At the farm stand with mulch?  I’m about 1.5 miles north of their on a side road.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

55 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I've been through a few times, I think its the pallet capital of the US.

That particular business is “interesting “ to say the least

[HoarfrostHubb]

53 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Lots and lots of trees. Is that all private land along route 62?

A lot of state owned land as well

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Definitely. It's very hard to buy something rundown and just sit on it, however. The lower-level daily crime is overwhelming in parts of the city. Crimes such as theft, squatting, destruction of property, ripping out the copper from the walls, drug use, etc make it very hard to simply buy a cheap row home and wait for gentrification. Someone I know recently tried to do it and his place has been ransacked many times. He had to basically leave it as a bombed-out shell for now. He still routinely finds evidence of attempted forced entry when he goes down there to check on it.

That approach worked like a charm in Charlestown, MA. A lot of multi-millionaire townies cashing out over there in the last decade.