Spring Banter

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Since it has never been tried at scale I'm not sure how you can make that claim...?

Countless studies and real world trials say so. Look it up.

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

If a family of 4 could live comfortably on Dad's factory wage alone decades ago, people should be able to at least survive without 3 jobs now.  There's a very big difference between wages and "livable standards" in the past 50 years.  What's the use of having all these jobs out there if people can't survive on them? 

Dad in the factory produced a product that was presumably in demand and fetched a good price when sold. It's much harder to quantify productivity and value in a service-based economy like we have now. There have always existed very low-paying jobs for teenagers and young adults who were still living at home. The idea that we need to pay an 18 year old kid enough money to have his own car, apartment, cellphone, and TV with some left over to save when he has zero skills and works the lowest rung job possible is kind of hard to implement without major manipulation of the job market. That approach also makes our desire to import tons of unskilled third world labor even less sensible...

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, klw said:

Well don't forget the definition of living comfortably is far different now than in 1970.  Houses are bigger, cars are fancier and have actual safety features plus something other than  an airvent and an AM radio, there are now multiple tvs in the house and they are not only in color but the biggest in the house is no longer 19" and  they get more than 3 channels, computers, computers, computers, video game machines, home exercise equipment, there is no longer just one phone in the house that you rent, people belong to gyms other than a YMCA, you don't just go out to eat on special occasions, etc.  

Some folks think you can raise wages to unnaturally-high levels, massively increase taxes, and there will be little change in the cost of goods and services. It all goes back to the modern mistaken belief that the "fat cats" who own local shops and restaurants are raking in tens of millions of dollars in excess profits that they will cough up before raising prices.

Schools really need to be teaching basic financial and entrepreneurial concepts to future voters...

[PhineasC]

Meanwhile, there is a chronic shortage of skilled trades workers. Instead of sending your C-student kid off to college for $50k a semester and then wondering why he is drowning in debt and still living at home, maybe consider pushing him to be become an electrician?

I guess it's easier now to just demand the taxpayer bail you out of your college debt and then pay you a UBI. LOL

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Dad in the factory produced a product that was presumably in demand and fetched a good price when sold. It's much harder to quantify productivity and value in a service-based economy like we have now. There have always existed very low-paying jobs for teenagers and young adults who were still living at home. The idea that we need to pay an 18 year old kid enough money to have his own car, apartment, cellphone, and TV with some left over to save when he has zero skills and works the lowest rung job possible is kind of hard to implement without major manipulation of the job market. That approach also makes our desire to import tons of unskilled third world labor even less sensible...

But what if those 18-year olds aren't working and now you are moving into another segment of the population that does need to survive?   That's why the service industry is suffering.  That mentality of getting a job at 15 is largely gone.  I was washing dishes at a local family owned Italian restaurant Thur/Fri/Sat/Sun nights at 15-16.  Covered in marinara sauce every night, lol.  There's no way they are filling that position right now (they retired and closed anyway about 5 years ago due to labor shortages and getting older).

Sort of like Amarshall said, I do think there's a generation of small business owners that are aging now and operated in what was a golden age of high school low-wage low-skilled labor, IMO.  I feel like the 90s and 2000s had a good run of that type of labor.  Not anymore.

[Bostonseminole]

Doesn’t go in effect until midnight tonight.

Oh ok


.

[PhineasC]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't think the mentality of starting in that kind of role and working your way up, appeals to this current generation. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's the sense I get. I worked a second job landscaping with my friend who owned the business, to help pay for a wedding ring. You won't see that much anymore. 

You are definitely not wrong. Work ethic in the the 20-35 crowd is horrendous. Anyone who does hiring knows this, even other business owners in their 20s. There is no hustle anymore and no desire to move up. A smart kid would take one of these lower-paying jobs companies are desperate to fill and before long he'd be running the place.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

But what if those 18-year olds aren't working and now you are moving into another segment of the population that does need to survive?   That's why the service industry is suffering.  That mentality of getting a job at 15 is largely gone.  I was washing dishes at a local family owned Italian restaurant Thur/Fri/Sat/Sun nights at 15-16.  Covered in marinara sauce every night, lol.  There's no way they are filling that position right now (they retired and closed anyway about 5 years ago due to labor shortages and getting older).

Sort of like Amarshall said, I do think there's a generation of small business owners that are aging now and operated in what was a golden age of high school low-wage low-skilled labor, IMO.  I feel like the 90s and 2000s had a good run of that type of labor.  Not anymore.

We agree, applicants for those jobs don't exist anymore because the work ethic of a lot of people under 30 is shot.

Raising wages to 25/hr so you can hire a college grad to stir the pasta sauce is not the answer. LOL

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Meanwhile, there is a chronic shortage of skilled trades workers. Instead of sending your C-student kid off to college for $50k a semester and then wondering why he is drowning in debt and still living at home, maybe consider pushing him to be become an electrician?

I guess it's easier now to just demand the taxpayer bail you out of your college debt and then pay you a UBI. LOL

There is currently a shortage of vocational schools in our state at least.  They are super hard to get into (although that will be changing).  The one my son went to has 22 towns feeding into it... they could add several more facilities... that costs $$$

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, PhineasC said:

You are definitely not wrong. Work ethic in the the 20-35 crowd is horrendous. Anyone who does hiring knows this, even other business owners in their 20s. There is no hustle anymore and no desire to move up. A smart kid would take one of these lower-paying jobs companies are desperate to fill and before long he'd be running the place.

Seems like the typical generalized thinking of the older folk on how “these young kids don’t work like we do”. Younger generations evolve and find ways to improve upon their predecessors. It doesn’t mean their wortk ethic sucks, it’s just different. I know plenty of post college kids who work smarter by leveraging their resources better than we can. It’s obtuse to think the older generation has a better work ethic when plenty of older folks I’ve worked with are lazy AF. Dumb, can’t use tech, unwilling to learn, think they know everything, and are happy to just collect their paychecks. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, PhineasC said:

We agree, applicants for those jobs don't exist anymore because the work ethic of a lot of people under 30 is shot.

Raising wages to 25/hr so you can hire a college grad to stir the pasta sauce is not the answer. LOL

Not sure what the answer is then, if these places do not raise their wages they will not be able to staff their businesses.  So that's what's happening now.  The hand is being forced and places around here are raising wages significantly in numerous establishments.  I would imagine that starts to take off elsewhere too, if it's not already.

I can also see how many people can feel slighted when they are educated and hold a professional job that they've worked at for a while to get up to say $70k a year, while the attendant folding towels with zero job stress and no decision making starts making $38,000 because there is so much demand for that role that's unfilled.

The issue here is that skill and demand are starting to have quite the variance.  The demand for low-skilled service jobs is extremely high in a lot of places.  Around here that demand is certainly a lot higher than it is for good professional level folks or managerial types.  That demand will drive wage increases at places that can afford it.

 

[Whineminster]

Don't buy crypto on robinhood....not your codes not you coins.  Plus you can't transfer to another wallet, your have to sell to USD.  Defeats the whole point of crypto. 

I use Voyager and Coinbase for moving in and out of USD, and KuCoin for buying/playing random coins like XMR one of my faves. 

[bch2014]

The assertion that there are all these lazy, college-educated 25-35 Y/Os sitting around, doing nothing, waiting on a minimum wage increase from the government isn't empirically true, at least compared to other segments of the population.

The labor force participation rate AND the unemployment rate for college graduates is higher/lower than any other education subgroup.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04.htm

If you want to talk about work ethic-it's people at the lower end of the education spectrum who don't have it. 

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

There is currently a shortage of vocational schools in our state at least.  They are super hard to get into (although that will be changing).  The one my son went to has 22 towns feeding into it... they could add several more facilities... that costs $$$

A much better use of taxpayer dollars than bailouts of college loans.

[Whineminster]

Just now, PhineasC said:

A much better use of taxpayer dollars than bailouts of college loans.

Way too many people go to college. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Seems like the typical generalized thinking of the older folk on how “these young kids don’t work like we do”. Younger generations evolve and find ways to improve upon their predecessors. It doesn’t mean their wortk ethic sucks, it’s just different. I know plenty of post college kids who work smarter by leveraging their resources better than we can. It’s obtuse to think the older generation has a better work ethic when plenty of older folks I’ve worked with are lazy AF. Dumb, can’t use tech, unwilling to learn, think they know everything, and are happy to just collect their paychecks. 

Yeah that's extremely true. It's not that they are working less, they are working smarter.  My staff of entry level were making some decent coin streaming video games on Twitch at night, they'd do InstaCart after hours and make more money in 20 hours than they would in 40 hours delivering groceries to wealthy second home owners.  They are making money, they just aren't doing it through manual labor and low wages, ha.

[PhineasC]

Just now, bch2014 said:

If there are all these lazy, college-educated 25-35 Y/Os sitting around, doing nothing, waiting on a minimum wage increase from the government isn't empirically true, at least compared to other segments of the population.

The labor force participation rate AND the unemployment rate for college graduates is higher than any other education subgroup.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04.htm

If you want to talk about work ethic-it's people at the lower end of the education spectrum who don't have it. 

I wasn't referring specifically to college grads. Although there is more to work ethic than simply a binary "has a job/doesn't have a job." Plenty of under-employed folks out there who drift from job to job and spend long stretches on unemployment.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not sure what the answer is then, if these places do not raise their wages they will not be able to staff their businesses.  So that's what's happening now.  The hand is being forced and places around here are raising wages significantly in numerous establishments.  I would imagine that starts to take off elsewhere too, if it's not already.

I can also see how many people can feel slighted when they are educated and hold a professional job that they've worked at for a while to get up to say $70k a year, while the attendant folding towels with zero job stress and no decision making starts making $38,000 because there is so much demand for that role that's unfilled.

The issue here is that skill and demand are starting to have quite the variance.  The demand for low-skilled service jobs is extremely high in a lot of places.  Around here that demand is certainly a lot higher than it is for good professional level folks or managerial types.  That demand will drive wage increases at places that can afford it.

 

What's going to happen is that prices will increase, many establishments will simply close because the numbers no longer work, some establishments will automate, and others will hire more illegal immigrant labor under the table. You will also see the continued trend towards consolidation as small venues close down in favor of a handful of conglomerates. Already well underway with clothing stores and grocery stores.

You are in a really unique and isolated area. Everything I already described is well underway in suburbs outside major cities. There is still room for higher-priced boutique shops in rural VT. In suburban Dallas? Not so much.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Way too many people go to college. 

I can tell you it was a lot of fun but yeah, suburbs in the 1990s and 2000s were like "you have no option, you are going to college and you will like it."  I'm sure it's the same right now though.  

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Seems like the typical generalized thinking of the older folk on how “these young kids don’t work like we do”. Younger generations evolve and find ways to improve upon their predecessors. It doesn’t mean their wortk ethic sucks, it’s just different. I know plenty of post college kids who work smarter by leveraging their resources better than we can. It’s obtuse to think the older generation has a better work ethic when plenty of older folks I’ve worked with are lazy AF. Dumb, can’t use tech, unwilling to learn, think they know everything, and are happy to just collect their paychecks. 

If that is the case, why are they living at home in record numbers and clamoring to have their school debt paid off? That doesn't sound like a generation that made smart choices right out of the gate. I blame the Boomers also for failing to impart a strong sense of realistic work ethic on their kids and failing to tell them about the true costs/benefits of something like college. So many young people are completely ignorant of financial matters. I'm sure some are making money on YouTube or whatever but let's be real, that's a tiny percentage.

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that's extremely true. It's not that they are working less, they are working smarter.  My staff of entry level were making some decent coin streaming video games on Twitch at night, they'd do InstaCart after hours and make more money in 20 hours than they would in 40 hours delivering groceries to wealthy second home owners.  They are making money, they just aren't doing it through manual labor and low wages, ha.

Unfortunately, there is now a push by the Federal govt to ruin these gig economy jobs too...

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

What's going to happen is that prices will increase, many establishments will simply close because the numbers no longer work, some establishments will automate, and others will hire more illegal immigrant labor under the table. You will also see the continued trend towards consolidation as small venues close down in favor of a handful of conglomerates. Already well underway with clothing stores and grocery stores.

You are in a really unique and isolated area. Everything I already described is well underway in suburbs outside major cities. There is still room for higher-priced boutique shops in rural VT. In suburban Dallas? Not so much.

Automation is already in overdrive....those self-order kiosks are all over the place now so you eliminated a fast food worker with those or a grocery store cashier/bagger. The automation isn't super cheap but once you are forced to decide between paying someone 17 buck an hour or spend the up front capital on automation, it makes sense to do the latter. Contrary to popular belief, a lot of these places run on fairly thin margins and succeed on volume. The volume severely goes down if you have to raise your prices so the numbers stop working.

[BrianW]

25 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Meanwhile, there is a chronic shortage of skilled trades workers. Instead of sending your C-student kid off to college for $50k a semester and then wondering why he is drowning in debt and still living at home, maybe consider pushing him to be become an electrician?

I guess it's easier now to just demand the taxpayer bail you out of your college debt and then pay you a UBI. LOL

My company is hiring electrician apprentices right out of high school at $15-17/hr. 2 years later when you reach the state mandated hours and get your license you will start out around $30-35/hr. Electricians with 10+ years experience are making $50-60+/hr with endless overtime available. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that's extremely true. It's not that they are working less, they are working smarter.  My staff of entry level were making some decent coin streaming video games on Twitch at night, they'd do InstaCart after hours and make more money in 20 hours than they would in 40 hours delivering groceries to wealthy second home owners.  They are making money, they just aren't doing it through manual labor and low wages, ha.

I am a firm believer that every generation is smarter, not the opposite. Otherwise, civilization would go backwards and not forward. Whether the older folks like how the world changes around them circles back to the change principle, people typically hate change. We like our comfort zones and that’s it. When that gets ruffled, all hell breaks loose. “These kids thesedays, they don’t know what it means to work to make a living.” So we may think Gen Z are lazy and don’t want to work when the reality is they are finding better or easier ways to make the same living, or better, than we ever have. 

[bch2014]

Just now, PhineasC said:

What's going to happen is that prices will increase, many establishments will simply close because the numbers no longer work, some establishments will automate, and others will hire more illegal immigrant labor under the table. You will also see the continued trend towards consolidation as small venues close down in favor of a handful of conglomerates. Already well underway with clothing stores and grocery stores.

You are in a really unique and isolated area. Everything I already described is well underway in suburbs outside major cities. There is still room for higher-priced boutique shops in rural VT. In suburban Dallas? Not so much.

1) Suburban Dallas has higher average incomes than rural Vermont.

2) There are plenty of boutiques in Dallas.

3) Am I the only one who doesn't mind shopping at chain Grocery stores? I much preferred shopping at HEB when I lived in Texas vs. the shithole mom and pop grocery stores here in the city... These larger chains generally have better assortment and better prices for the consumer while for employees, they pay higher wages and offering more career advancement than the smaller competition.

[PhineasC]

I don't fundamentally disagree that wages need to go up and the profitability of some large businesses such as Amazon and Walmart needs to be curtailed.

But we need to be careful because when this is tried, it usually ends up punishing small businesses instead and the big boys slip away unscathed. 

People will also need to brace for much higher prices for goods and services, wiping out some of the gains made in wage increases. I suppose the answer to that is larger and larger UBI allocations, but then that turns into an arms race of sorts at that point. Prices go up, so taxes increase to pay more UBI, causing prices to go up.

You kind of have to end up with centrally-planned economic communism at that point... maybe that's the intent.

[MJO812]

Yankee stadium and Citifield are going to allow full capacity starting July 1.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

What's going to happen is that prices will increase, many establishments will simply close because the numbers no longer work, some establishments will automate, and others will hire more illegal immigrant labor under the table. You will also see the continued trend towards consolidation as small venues close down in favor of a handful of conglomerates. Already well underway with clothing stores and grocery stores.

You are in a really unique and isolated area. Everything I already described is well underway in suburbs outside major cities. There is still room for higher-priced boutique shops in rural VT. In suburban Dallas? Not so much.

Oh for sure and it's happening here... larger companies like to buy boutique places in tourist Vermont.  Many of the places that "appear" like they might be on their own are actually owned by larger management companies.  Those are the ones that can pay higher wages.

I do think this is still a product of standard of living and costs of living increasing at an out-paced level to the small mom and pop economy from the 80s and 90s.  Those folks are getting older, retiring, selling, going out of business, because their lives were built around very low wage labor.... and that small business model doesn't exist or survive without a lot of very low wage earners.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I am a firm believer that every generation is smarter, not the opposite. Otherwise, civilization would go backwards and not forward. Whether the older folks like how the world changes around them circles back to the change principle, people typically hate change. We like our comfort zones and that’s it. When that gets ruffled, all hell breaks loose. “These kids thesedays, they don’t know what it means to work to make a living.” So we may think Gen Z are lazy and don’t want to work when the reality is they are finding better or easier ways to make the same living, or better, than we ever have. 

This is true, but I often hear rhetoric that is the opposite. "We can't make a living!!!", etc....but then I see everyone's standard of living like 20x better than our parents in the 1970s/1980s.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Automation is already in overdrive....those self-order kiosks are all over the place now so you eliminated a fast food worker with those or a grocery store cashier/bagger. The automation isn't super cheap but once you are forced to decide between paying someone 17 buck an hour or spend the up front capital on automation, it makes sense to do the latter. Contrary to popular belief, a lot of these places run on fairly thin margins and succeed on volume. The volume severely goes down if you have to raise your prices so the numbers stop working.

But prices have already been creeping up even at fast food joints. 

Agreed that these places need to operate on volume. Been saying that along. That's why restricting them to 25% capacity and saying they can be "open" was basically the same as making them stay closed.