Spring Banter

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Look at Israel. They are ahead of us by over a month and a half, so we are on the same trajectory. They had similar spikes at during the early stages of vaccination - but look to have mostly squashed it. Now if they start having cases increase again, that would be a big red flag

Excellent point. They have dropped off substantially...actually getting to the point of being "Covid free". 

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Look at Israel. They are ahead of us by over a month and a half, so we are on the same trajectory. They had similar spikes at during the early stages of vaccination - but look to have mostly squashed it. Now if they start having cases increase again, that would be a big red flag

I don't like the Israel comparison. They are basically a police-state with literal border walls and checkpoints all over the place. Also very tiny country.

[Lava Rock]

38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I agree...it won't be toast, but hopefully it will be better combatted. The excellent news is the model projections bring this down substantially once we move through May and flat line it right through the summer...this is excellent to see. But the latest projections do show the deaths climbing back up a bit but that's likely due in part to the recent surge in cases. 

If we are going into June and still over 50K cases per day with not much decline in hospitalizations or rate of hospitalizations...that would be a big cause for concern.

I'd also look at Israel to see how infections and deaths go from this point forward. They are 50%+ vaccinated and while I don't think they have as many strains circulating, the vaccines are very effective as I think they had 250 cases in the entire country yesterday. If down the line there is a big resurgence in cases and deaths, then I'd be concerned that we're going to be playing whack a mole a long time.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, PhineasC said:

I don't like the Israel comparison. They are basically a police-state with literal border walls and checkpoints all over the place. Also very tiny country.

Right but those conditions might be the best way to test how well a vaccine is working..in a relatively controlled environment. The wildcard is obviously the amount of variants present there. If the SA and P1/P2 variants aren't prevalent there, it may be moot. 

[BuffaloWeather]

50 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

IDK, I'm starting to think otherwise.

The virus won't be completely eradicated and will likely be with us forever as most coronaviruses are. The Spanish flu strain is still with us today.

https://www.history.com/news/1918-flu-pandemic-never-ended

However, I believe for the US between Vaccinations and Infections, we will be at herd immunity come summertime. Cases will be extremely low and hospitalizations/deaths should be drastically decreased to the point where life can get back to normal. Even this extremely conservative administration said so today. I do believe it will take awhile for the rest of the world to get this under control. The US are front runners with the vaccine administration.

Vaccine push working to keep COVID-19 deaths down in US, White House believes | WFLA

'The White House Task Force said things could be “back to normal” by the 4th of July, but only if Americans continue to get vaccinated and keep up coronavirus precautions.'

[Lava Rock]

34 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s a bit concerning we aren’t seeing the downward movement at a fast clip with vaccinations.

Nope. In the last two weeks our cases keep going up. While we're only 17% fully vaccinated you'd like to see the opposite trend. Whatever the reason (less social distancing, people not gaf, etc), it sure gives the anti-vaxers ammunition to say what's the point of getting the vaccine when cases keep going up.

[powderfreak]

23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The thing is parts or maybe even a huge part of the country is back to normal...the south is predominately normal and has been for a while.

I still don’t know what I would’ve done differently in my life for the past 5-6 months that was highly influenced by COVID.  It seems schools must be the biggest thing but doesn’t affect me right now.

I mean if you don’t turn on the news (some seem to hate the media but at the same time can’t turn it off for some reason), wearing a mask getting groceries or going indoors is literally the only reason I’d know something was different.

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Nope. In the last two weeks our cases keep going up. While we're only 17% fully vaccinated you'd like to see the opposite trend. Whatever the reason (less social distancing, people not gaf, etc), it sure gives the anti-vaxers ammunition to say what's the point of getting the vaccine when cases keep going up.

Is it cases or deaths that the vaccine is supposed to quell?  Or both?

[Lava Rock]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Is it cases or deaths that the vaccine is supposed to quell?  Or both?

Both

[WhitinsvilleWX]

1) The PCR test cutoff is still a touch high. It was lowered to between 34-35. Did you notice the big drop off that started around January 10th in almost every state and nationally? Ding ding ding. I still think it needs to be around 30. Better still, scrap the thing. It’s never been truly validated. The antigen test like they use for flu is much better. Shows active infections, which are what are contagious anyway. 
2) The huge, “40% of us are asymptomatic and we spread it when we’re not sick” narrative is gone. Good riddance. It was bullshit a year ago and it still is.

3) You need to focus on age of people who are sick, not totals. Younger people account for 60% of the cases. They haven’t been vaccinated yet. Once they get vaccinated the umbers will go down.

4) The numbers of dead are going down even though cases are up or flat.That correlates with younger people are responsible for the new cases.

5) The vaccines work, but there’s still only 20% of the population vaccinated. And breakthrough infections will happen. Too much virus still circulating. 
6) We really won’t see a big improvement till late summer. See #5.

7) Have no idea what’s up with Michigan.

8) Covid is never going away. It’s going to be endemic. Get used to it. At some point we’ll decide everything is fine and we’ll live with some death. That’s the way it is. 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Nope. In the last two weeks our cases keep going up. While we're only 17% fully vaccinated you'd like to see the opposite trend. Whatever the reason (less social distancing, people not gaf, etc), it sure gives the anti-vaxers ammunition to say what's the point of getting the vaccine when cases keep going up.

It’s the variants...but if the vaccines help prevent severe disease who cares if people are testing positive? If fully vaxed people are getting very sick and dying then that’s another story.

Somewhere along the way the narrative switched from worrying about hospitals being overburdened to worrying about people contracting the virus at all. We’re going to have to deal with living with it and getting it...we just don’t want to die from it. 

[SouthCoastMA]

17 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Nope. In the last two weeks our cases keep going up. While we're only 17% fully vaccinated you'd like to see the opposite trend. Whatever the reason (less social distancing, people not gaf, etc), it sure makes the anti-vaxers ammunition to say what's the point of getting the vaccine when cases keep going up.

The cases are rising among the 0-29 demos, they represent nearly 45% of the cases in MA now. A vast majority of that age group is unvaccinated, so it's not entirely unexpected given the variants increased transmissibility

That anti vaxxer stance makes no sense either..unless tons of people who were recently vaccinated are getting sick as well. We just simply aren't there yet. I'm guessing we'll need to be above 50% vaccinations to start seeing notable declines

[SouthCoastMA]

MASS's numbers just came out. They really do seem like they have plateaued regarding cases, hospitalizations. And deaths keep declining. 

Record number of vaccinations in Mass today: 112,933 - 1st time over 100K. 

[MJO812]

Just got the Moderna vaccine

Went to the local Walgreens

Waited 30 minutes

[STILL N OF PIKE]

52 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s the variants...but if the vaccines help prevent severe disease who cares if people are testing positive? If fully vaxed people are getting very sick and dying then that’s another story.

Somewhere along the way the narrative switched from worrying about hospitals being overburdened to worrying about people contracting the virus at all. We’re going to have to deal with living with it and getting it...we just don’t want to die from it. 

Some Folks seem to struggle with this a bit (understandably) . 

The countries who have been slow to rollout the vaccine (EU clusterfuk) are paying the price 

We know with high confidence that Pfizer /Moderna /Novavax protect extremely well again the UK variant and the ever cautious Fauci says that Although less total protection is provided against the Brazilian strain ,that all indications are they provide A cushion of enough protection To still be very effective . I may have skipped over J&J but I believe they are good as well . The hospitalizations over the next few months will be exceptional feedback to see how good the variant protection is for certain 
 

Seems the biggest concerns are clearly globally where the vaccine roll out has been slow . In the United States a potential concern would be a new variant that is more resistant to vaccines than the Brazilian Variant . But either way ..the MRNA tech allows these vaccines to be tweaked very quickly so in the USA things look very good .

By mid to late summer if folks aren’t ready to eat in a restaurant or go on a plane I would respect their decision but it likely won’t improve much after that bc we Will have 75% of folks vaccinated by then . 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I agree with Brian ...

And it's all a problem with our 'people,' the people of Americana, too - when we're told an inch we expect a mile.  That 'narrative switching' ?  That happens quite a lot, while the inch is becoming the mile in the "congress of public opinion"

I swear ... at some point, some thing will come along - if perhaps needs to - that is going to forcibly humiliate society down to reality.

You know what it reminds me of ... Farside cartoon from back in the day.  Ole Larson at his best... he depicts to tattered ragged desiccated desert wonders that happen upon a brackish pool under a single palm, an oasis of life giving drink awaits ... and as they're kneeling down to sip ...the one turns to the other in hesitation and says, "what? - no cups!"

It's not funny when the end of days is upon us, and 99% of people hesitate expecting a cup of miles.

[fujiwara79]

17 hours ago, PhineasC said:

As an employer, if two people produce equally but one comes to the office to work side-by-side with the team every day and the other sits at home on his couch and barely knows his coworkers, you will choose the former every time. That's just basic human nature and a smart decision for team health. Humans are social animals.

Many of those who argue they hate the "schmoozers" are just socially dysfunctional people envious of those who can network and talk to the boss without getting overly nervous. I see that all the time. Often, they aren't even very good at their own jobs; humans are really bad at noticing their own failings but really good at noticing the supposed failings of others.

I wouldn't personally be super proud to be a militant WFH supporter who thinks working side-by-side with other humans is weird and old-fashioned. It's not a great look, IMO. WFH has its place and is an important part of a balanced corporate HR strategy, but it has major limitations too, especially for junior employees. 

 

I'm a militant supporter in flexible schedules to meet the needs of individuals.  some people can come in 5 days a week if they want; others can work from home full time if they want.  i'm not a fan of having a policy of forcing everyone to come into the office under the guise of  "team dynamics" or "team health".  let's face it: we're not training for an Olympic relay or producing a screenplay.  most people work independently at their desk even when they're physically in the office.

schmoozing and politicking are very real.  ideally promotions should be purely meritocratic, but they are often not.  management is frequently out of touch and its human nature to be predisposed to promoting friends and acquaintances.  schmoozing is an important skill if you're in sales or business development, but it's not that important for other types of technical work.  the office environment creates a perverse incentive structure where schmoozing is more valued than doing actual work.  it's been very apparent to us during the pandemic.

19 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Many of those who push very loudly for permanent WFH are mid-level workers who have reached that "burned-out and jaded" stage. I get it, we all end up there at some point. But you need to remember that as a junior employee you were able to take advantage of in-person mentoring, shadowing, and the ability to watch and mimic more senior employees. That's a huge part of how people learn to survive and succeed in the adult world. By forcing junior employees into WFH right out of the gate, you rob them of that opportunity you had. It's pretty unfair and causes massive turnover for young people as they join a firm, quickly fail because they lack any sort of structure or accountability, and then get flushed.

well, back in the good old days, virtually all of us had to work in a centralized office location because there was no other choice.  given the technology of today, it's odd that we would all choose to spend two hours a day driving to/from a centralized office location, only to spend half of our day hanging out at the coffee machine and chatting about the football game last weekend.  but i'm told this improves productivity or something.

 

 

[PhineasC]

9 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said:

I'm a militant supporter in flexible schedules to meet the needs of individuals.  some people can come in 5 days a week if they want; others can work from home full time if they want.  i'm not a fan of having a policy of forcing everyone to come into the office under the guise of  "team dynamics" or "team health".  let's face it: we're not training for an Olympic relay or producing a screenplay.  most people work independently at their desk even when they're physically in the office.

schmoozing and politicking are very real.  ideally promotions should be purely meritocratic, but they are often not.  management is frequently out of touch and its human nature to be predisposed to promoting friends and acquaintances.  schmoozing is an important skill if you're in sales or business development, but it's not that important for other types of technical work.  the office environment creates a perverse incentive structure where schmoozing is more valued than doing actual work.  it's been very apparent to us during the pandemic.

well, back in the good old days, virtually all of us had to work in a centralized office location because there was no other choice.  given the technology of today, it's odd that we would all choose to spend two hours a day driving to/from a centralized office location, only to spend half of our day hanging out at the coffee machine and chatting about the football game last weekend.  but i'm told this improves productivity or something.

 

 

You sound very typical to me. Deal with guys like you all the time.

I hope you are a very technical high-performer. If so, you are absolutely staying in-character as expected and your boss is perfectly happy with you and understands you. Most top engineers and technicians think exactly like you. Good bosses are used to this and it is not a problem. That's basically 80% of my staff.

If not, I would suggest looking over your shoulder. Your job isn't secure if that is the attitude you bring to the table in basically any non-technical field, or if you are in a technical field and just a so-so performer.

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The virus won't be completely eradicated and will likely be with us forever as most coronaviruses are. The Spanish flu strain is still with us today.

https://www.history.com/news/1918-flu-pandemic-never-ended

However, I believe for the US between Vaccinations and Infections, we will be at herd immunity come summertime. Cases will be extremely low and hospitalizations/deaths should be drastically decreased to the point where life can get back to normal. Even this extremely conservative administration said so today. I do believe it will take awhile for the rest of the world to get this under control. The US are front runners with the vaccine administration.

Vaccine push working to keep COVID-19 deaths down in US, White House believes | WFLA

'The White House Task Force said things could be “back to normal” by the 4th of July, but only if Americans continue to get vaccinated and keep up coronavirus precautions.'

How is "normal" being defined here?

Keep in mind, they are saying "back to normal" from the perspective of the CDC, where the baseline today is that travel is still supposed to be only happening for dire needs and you shouldn't be going into restaurants or shopping for non-necessities at all. Getting back to normal from that viewpoint may still be very restricted.

I'm concerned that "normal" is basically vaccine passports, social distancing, many schools still closed, mask-wearing, and capacity restrictions. Just like "normal" at the airports changed after 9/11 and never went back... 

 

 

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I still don’t know what I would’ve done differently in my life for the past 5-6 months that was highly influenced by COVID.  It seems schools must be the biggest thing but doesn’t affect me right now.

I mean if you don’t turn on the news (some seem to hate the media but at the same time can’t turn it off for some reason), wearing a mask getting groceries or going indoors is literally the only reason I’d know something was different.

In fairness, your life is very, very different from someone in a city or someone who is very poor in an urban environment. They can't just grab the dog and bike over to Stowe whenever they feel like it. LOL

When I go to NNH, COVID disappears, but I can assure you it is still very real down here in MD.

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

It’s the variants...but if the vaccines help prevent severe disease who cares if people are testing positive? If fully vaxed people are getting very sick and dying then that’s another story.

Somewhere along the way the narrative switched from worrying about hospitals being overburdened to worrying about people contracting the virus at all. We’re going to have to deal with living with it and getting it...we just don’t want to die from it. 

That's right. The narrative changed, probably once it got all wrapped up in the election and COVID turned into a political weapon.

It will need to be changed back to ever get people out of the fear-loop they are in. People are going to keep contracting COVID forever, and some will die. Deal with it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

30 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said:

I'm a militant supporter in flexible schedules to meet the needs of individuals.  some people can come in 5 days a week if they want; others can work from home full time if they want.  i'm not a fan of having a policy of forcing everyone to come into the office under the guise of  "team dynamics" or "team health".  let's face it: we're not training for an Olympic relay or producing a screenplay.  most people work independently at their desk even when they're physically in the office.

schmoozing and politicking are very real.  ideally promotions should be purely meritocratic, but they are often not.  management is frequently out of touch and its human nature to be predisposed to promoting friends and acquaintances.  schmoozing is an important skill if you're in sales or business development, but it's not that important for other types of technical work.  the office environment creates a perverse incentive structure where schmoozing is more valued than doing actual work.  it's been very apparent to us during the pandemic.

well, back in the good old days, virtually all of us had to work in a centralized office location because there was no other choice.  given the technology of today, it's odd that we would all choose to spend two hours a day driving to/from a centralized office location, only to spend half of our day hanging out at the coffee machine and chatting about the football game last weekend.  but i'm told this improves productivity or something.

 

 

Well said. Good take.

[PhineasC]

It's silly to think an employer will choose an employee who never comes to the office and is militantly anti-social over an employee who is at-ease dealing with coworkers, clients, and superiors, assuming the output of both is similar. How can you guys actually believe this makes sense? LOL

I see this fallacy SO MUCH from employees who are bad at their jobs and want to blame their lack of promotion on the fact that the other guy was a suck-up. That is a junior high mentality used to explain why some jerk you hate got an A and you got a C. It's just jealousy. 

The only exception is a small group of technical high performers who can get away with acting like this because they are so good at their jobs.

This topic is cracking me up as an employer.

[powderfreak]

32 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

In fairness, your life is very, very different from someone in a city or someone who is very poor in an urban environment. They can't just grab the dog and bike over to Stowe whenever they feel like it. LOL

When I go to NNH, COVID disappears, but I can assure you it is still very real down here in MD.

What’s different in Maryland? Like you can’t eat out at restaurants? Gyms closed? What can’t you do that you’d otherwise do living day to day life between NH and MD?

I have two employees from Cumberland, MD who say COVID never existed down there, ha, but that sounds like it’s closer to the mountains. They came from working at Wisp.

[PhineasC]

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What’s different in Maryland? Like you can’t eat out at restaurants? Gyms closed? What can’t you do that you’d otherwise do living day to day life between NH and MD?

I have two employees from Cumberland, MD who say COVID never existed down there, ha, but that sounds like it’s closer to the mountains. They came from working at Wisp.

The Federal installation on which my office is located has a very strong mask policy. You need to wear a mask at all times indoors and outside, even in an office with your door shut. The policy actually became more strict recently. 

The nightly news down here (my MIL watches it religiously) is still like 85% COVID case counts, vaccine news, deaths, etc. Very depressing to watch. Boomers need to turn off the TV.

Restaurants still implement capacity and time restrictions here on the regular.

My local church is still closed, they can only have Mass in a local school gym.

Schools either still closed or back 2-3 days a week max and kids are on Zoom even in school with the teachers at home.

Everyone talks about scary COVID all the time. It's annoying as hell, actually.

I can assure you COVID is much more of a "deal" here than in NNE. 

[Supernovice]

52 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The Federal installation on which my office is located has a very strong mask policy. You need to wear a mask at all times indoors and outside, even in an office with your door shut. The policy actually became more strict recently. 

The nightly news down here (my MIL watches it religiously) is still like 85% COVID case counts, vaccine news, deaths, etc. Very depressing to watch. Boomers need to turn off the TV.

Restaurants still implement capacity and time restrictions here on the regular.

My local church is still closed, they can only have Mass in a local school gym.

Schools either still closed or back 2-3 days a week max and kids are on Zoom even in school with the teachers at home.

Everyone talks about scary COVID all the time. It's annoying as hell, actually.

I can assure you COVID is much more of a "deal" here than in NNE. 

First imagine that you’re so deeply insecure in your own beliefs that even though you personally don’t believe COVID is a big deal (which whatever- free country) that you drag anyone taking public health messaging seriously over the coals on a daily/ hourly basis.

Then imagine you lack any type of self awareness- so much so that you say “everyone talking about scary Covid in MD is so annoying”. While simultaneously making what...20-30 COVID related posts a DAY on a weather forum- anonymously of course.

If anyone can’t see what’s going here- you’re welcome.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Supernovice said:

First imagine that you’re so deeply insecure in your own beliefs that even though you personally don’t believe COVID is a big deal (which whatever- free country) that you drag anyone taking public health messaging seriously over the coals on a daily/ hourly basis.

Then imagine you lack any type of self awareness- so much so that you say “everyone talking about scary Covid in MD is so annoying”. While simultaneously making what...20-30 COVID related posts a DAY on a weather forum- anonymously of course.

If anyone can’t see what’s going here- you’re welcome.

Stay mad, bro.

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, Supernovice said:

First imagine that you’re so deeply insecure in your own beliefs that even though you personally don’t believe COVID is a big deal (which whatever- free country) that you drag anyone taking public health messaging seriously over the coals on a daily/ hourly basis.

Then imagine you lack any type of self awareness- so much so that you say “everyone talking about scary Covid in MD is so annoying”. While simultaneously making what...20-30 COVID related posts a DAY on a weather forum- anonymously of course.

If anyone can’t see what’s going here- you’re welcome.

Nailed it LOL

[TalcottWx]

And anyone whining about people wanting to WFH.... sorry.... Welcome to the new normal. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

This is as predictable as a failed OES thread by James