Spring Banter

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Surprising - were they fully vaccinated? Could be additional factors that we don't know about as well.

Not sure....but it’s concerning.  That said-the early returns say this is rare.   

[HoarfrostHubb]

It is so freaking dry out.  This low humidity is both enjoyable and worrisome

[TalcottWx]

[PhineasC]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Pfizer is eyeing full FDA approval pretty soon.

The pair’s mRNA vaccine is 91.3% effective against symptomatic COVID-19 disease as measured in people who have been immunized with the second dose of the shot for up to six months, the companies said Thursday.

The new efficacy data, plus a safety analysis comprising data from more than 12,000 people who were fully immunized for at least six months, allow the companies to file a drug application with the FDA to turn the shot’s emergency use authorization into a full approval, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, Ph.D., said in a statement.

The efficacy level is slightly down from the 95% number the vaccine first posted in the trial. With those data, Pfizer secured an FDA emergency use authorization in December. Since that initial analysis, more COVID-19 cases have accrued, increasing to 927 as of March 13 from the previous 170.

Of the total cases, investigators recorded 850 in the placebo group compared with 77 in the vaccine cohort. Thirty-two severe COVID-19 cases were recorded, all in the placebo group, translating into a 100% efficacy against severe disease for the vaccine.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/pfizer-biontech-eye-official-covid-19-vaccine-nod-as-efficacy-stands-strong-including

Hopefully the FDA will make them provide data on the efficacy against the UK and Brazil variants.

[SouthCoastMA]

"While the majority of the population develops full immunity within 14 days of completion of their vaccine series, a small proportion appear to take longer to mount a full antibody response"

also, would be interesting to see which vaccines they had.

[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Hopefully the FDA will make them provide data on the efficacy against the UK and Brazil variants.

Its 91% for the Brazilian and the same efficacy vs UK as original strain which was 95% but after further review with 6 months of data it is now also 91%. That's what we know so far. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/01/pfizer-covid-vaccine-is-91percent-effective-in-updated-data-protective-against-south-african-variant.html

[TalcottWx]

I was told there was no evidence of transmission in restaurants. Eye roll

[PhineasC]

10 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Casedemic powers onward.

[PhineasC]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Its 91% for the Brazilian and the same efficacy vs UK as original strain which was 95% but after further review with 6 months of data it is now also 91%. That's what we know so far. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/01/pfizer-covid-vaccine-is-91percent-effective-in-updated-data-protective-against-south-african-variant.html

That article appears to reference the SA variant, not the Brazil or UK variants, unless I am misreading.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, PhineasC said:

That article appears to reference the SA variant, not the Brazil or UK variants, unless I am misreading.

that's what I gather too...I mean 91% against the Brazilian would be huge given how potent that strain is

[PhineasC]

8 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I was told there was no evidence of transmission in restaurants. Eye roll

You are free to eat microwave burritos at home and avoid restaurants entirely. No need to mandate the same for everyone else. Have a little personal responsibility, it'll do you a lot of good.

[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That article appears to reference the SA variant, not the Brazil or UK variants, unless I am misreading.

You're right. Initial reports suggested that the vaccines didn't fair too well against the SA variant in particular. There have been a few studies done with the Brazilian one showing similar efficacy to the original strain. The data is obviously limited as these variants are so new. The results are based on lab studies and not real world data. 

https://www.biospace.com/article/covid-news-pfizer-biontech-vaccine-effective-against-brazilian-variant-molecular-partners-novartis-antiviral-drug-safe-in-early-trial/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/03/09/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You're right. Initial reports suggested that the vaccines didn't fair too well against the SA variant in particular. There have been a few studies done with the Brazilian one showing similar efficacy to the original strain. The data is obviously limited as these variants are so new. 

https://www.biospace.com/article/covid-news-pfizer-biontech-vaccine-effective-against-brazilian-variant-molecular-partners-novartis-antiviral-drug-safe-in-early-trial/

I personally think the FDA needs more information on efficacy against these variants and more of a roadmap for boosters and how other variants will be handled before full auth, but maybe that is on the agenda before they approve.

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, PhineasC said:

I personally think the FDA needs more information on efficacy against these variants and more of a roadmap for boosters and how other variants will be handled before full auth, but maybe that is on the agenda before they approve.

I agree, but the full FDA approval would most likely be based on the initial vaccine given, any other boosters would likely need further authorization? In all my research it seems the variants are not that far off from the original strain and any infection if it does happen results in minimal issues. In my opinion the media is fear mongering with the variants causing an entire new wave of covid. This virus is toast come summertime. 

[SouthCoastMA]

They are already working on boosters apparently. 

 

 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I agree, but the full FDA approval would most likely be based on the initial vaccine given, any other boosters would likely need further authorization? In all my research it seems the variants are not that far off from the original strain and any infection if it does happen results in minimal issues. In my opinion the media is fear mongering with the variants causing an entire new wave of covid. This virus is toast come summertime. 

I tend to agree with this

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

They are already working on boosters apparently. 

Also..I'd like to see the data regarding restaurants being a huge reason for covid surges. 

This is just 1 article of many suggesting otherwise. https://abc7.com/covid-19-data-restaurants-outdoor-dining/8235279/

We'll probably need to get some sort of booster during the early fall 

[PhineasC]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

I agree, but the full FDA approval would most likely be based on the initial vaccine given, any other boosters would likely need further authorization? In all my research it seems the variants are not that far off from the original strain and any infection if it does happen results in minimal issues. In my opinion the media is fear mongering with the variants causing an entire new wave of covid. This virus is toast come summertime. 

Every rational person out there hopes you are right.  

The fear-mongering over variants tells my conspiratorial mind that certain players want the fear and restrictions to continue indefinitely. I really hope I am wrong, and people can feel free to laugh at me if I am wrong and we are all eating hotdogs in the stands at Yankee stadium without vaccine passports by July.

It is kinda crazy how hard it is to find good news on the pandemic. Just try it. I'm sure there is some out there, but it's like 90:10 bad to good.

The media is always kind of like that, but this seems over the top. 

[klw]

38 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Even if the vaccine is 95% effective, that means it is 5% not effective. Some could still get it and a smaller number could croak.  

 

[PhineasC]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We'll probably need to get some sort of booster during the early fall 

I am waiting to get a vaccine until I know about the boosters and the vaccine is under full auth. Then, my family and I will gladly get it like we do now every year with the flu shot.

[Lava Rock]

13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I agree, but the full FDA approval would most likely be based on the initial vaccine given, any other boosters would likely need further authorization? In all my research it seems the variants are not that far off from the original strain and any infection if it does happen results in minimal issues. In my opinion the media is fear mongering with the variants causing an entire new wave of covid. This virus is toast come summertime. 

IDK, I'm starting to think otherwise.

[HoarfrostHubb]

What other diseases /viruses would this mRNA technology help with?   Now that they have a blueprint is it hard to do?

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

IDK, I'm starting to think otherwise.

Man, I hope the conspiracy theorists (like me) are wrong...

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

IDK, I'm starting to think otherwise.

I agree...it won't be toast, but hopefully it will be better combatted. The excellent news is the model projections bring this down substantially once we move through May and flat line it right through the summer...this is excellent to see. But the latest projections do show the deaths climbing back up a bit but that's likely due in part to the recent surge in cases. 

If we are going into June and still over 50K cases per day with not much decline in hospitalizations or rate of hospitalizations...that would be a big cause for concern.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

19 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

IDK, I'm starting to think otherwise.

It’s a bit concerning we aren’t seeing the downward movement at a fast clip with vaccinations.

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I agree...it won't be toast, but hopefully it will be better combatted. The excellent news is the model projections bring this down substantially once we move through May and flat line it right through the summer...this is excellent to see. But the latest projections do show the deaths climbing back up a bit but that's likely due in part to the recent surge in cases. 

If we are going into June and still over 50K cases per day with not much decline in hospitalizations or rate of hospitalizations...that would be a big cause for concern.

At some point if that happens just have to go back to mostly normal.  Crazy to hide in. Bunker for years on end 

[Hoth]

This cracked me up. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

At some point if that happens just have to go back to mostly normal.  Crazy to hide in. Bunker for years on end 

The thing is parts or maybe even a huge part of the country is back to normal...the south is predominately normal and has been for a while. Heck, so much negative heat has been given to states like Texas and Florida for how they' handled this but if you look at deaths/million people for example, some of the states with the highest numbers are the ones who had been more strict. Compare Florida and Connecticut...states which have went about this completely differently...overall there isn't much difference. Yes Florida's death numbers are much larger when first looking at that but in terms of death/one million people we're blowing them out of the water. 

I have been very up in the air about CT's numbers as of late...given how we've been vaccinating I would think we should be seeing a daily positivity rate somewhere between 1-2%. My thinking was by mid-April we would be around 1.5% and probably under 1% by the end of the month. Testing numbers continue to be high so obviously that's going to bring about more cases but we're still well over 1,000 new cases per day...there has not been any decline in this number. I also find this kinda odd too is how come new case numbers are always right in the same neighborhood every day? And today's numbers came out and hospitalizations have increased once again.

If we don't see a huge drop off here in the next two weeks then something is up...either something is fishy with the tests or there is something else at hand (and I cringe to say vaccine efficacy in the real world population is vastly below what it was in trials).

[tamarack]

15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s a bit concerning we aren’t seeing the downward movement at a fast clip with vaccinations.

Spring break surge?  Should know by late month.

[SouthCoastMA]

Look at Israel. They are ahead of us by over a month and a half, so we are on the same trajectory. They had similar spikes at during the early stages of vaccination - but look to have mostly squashed it. Now if they start having cases increase again, that would be a big red flag