Spring Banter

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

At ~ 58 million full vaccination count as of this morning, ... or ~ 17.5% of the U.S. population, I am curious at what percentage ranges ( be it 30, 50 ...70 ) do we see statistical curves break/respond?  

The first curve I'd like to see break toward less is the persistent 60 to 70K new cases per day.

I check every evening while in my own doomscrolling daily dosing .. That number doesn't seem to modulate up or down by much.  We witnessed the intrawinter wave that was modeled, and along with that,  thank god for CNN's "ethical" cause, the fear that pumped another few billion into their dystopian rage.  But that wave came and went; the new cases per diem crashed.

Now in the last 20 days..it appears to not really be declining.  At 58 to 72 K per day, it seems to just be bouncing around in that range.  I'd like to know at what full vax count do we see it actually slope negative - as in like all the sudden, 50K ... then 40K ...30K   ...without returning, across that break point..   That might be an indication that this herd thing is getting close.  

This is not going as fast as it was touted to go, a month ago.  I remember a lot Biden optimism then that we'd have half the population vax'ed by the end of April or mid May, and in projecting the last 2 weeks of percentages, ...I think that falls short of 50% by a significant margin. 

Plus, among the various texting groups I belong to, there is a way around preferential restriction due to dose logistics. Namely, that toward the end of days ... doses of the vaccine have to be thrown out if unused.  Seems there is sloppy management of supply and demand connection there .. but be that as it may, if one shows up at the end of shift rotation and asks if there were any 'no shows,' or left overs..etc., they are quietly administered and shown the door - thanks for helping us not waste vaccine - and they're out. 

Lol, meanwhile I'm sure there are those rocking in wait to get theirs.   I've made it the last year without getting this thing, and so ... seems 'reasonable' that relative to whatever I am doing, so long as I don't deviate much I should make it .. - it is likely I can make it the next two weeks... at which point for Mass it opens up to general population above 16..

That all said, I'm am wondering if that is the same or close across most states - those dates?  Because the bell curve of population mass is in fact inside that 16 to 60 age range, so when that time comes, we may see an acceleration of the vax rates. 

Vax rates are impressive 

Things look to be really looking up at least domestically . Internationally , not so much given the lack of vaccines supplies locked up and disseminated in various poor and un..connected countries.
 

The increase in breakthru cases around the country shouldn’t be too surprising given that the phase 3 trials given by every pharmaceutical company where both arms of the study were basically doing a quarantine but that should decline when the 16-40 year old spreaders are vaxxed.
 

However the one study With folks actually interacting frequently/ intensely with the population  was really BIG, thou more time and responses need to be looked at . It showed 90% Efficacy In populations that live with daily (interactions with people (first responders ) ..You know... what real life was Like . It also protected at a higher level against death and hospitalization ..which after all is the bottom line and if these results can be repeated Over a longer time frame and with a higher sample size than Covid will be potentially on the same level or less than the Flu- if you compare numbers - but that will take consistency in that data with those levels of interactions 

If someone who crunches numbers can do a comparison based on that 90% Covid efficacy (real world conditions )post vaccination Covid threats may fall in line with Other threats we live with as well as a understanding that high levels of obesity and diabetes as well as being stuck in nursing home unvaccinated tremendously have raise your chances of a unfortunate Covid outcome .

 

[WhitinsvilleWX]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

At ~ 58 million full vaccination count as of this morning, ... or ~ 17.5% of the U.S. population, I am curious at what percentage ranges ( be it 30, 50 ...70 ) do we see statistical curves break/respond?  

The first curve I'd like to see break toward less is the persistent 60 to 70K new cases per day.

It looks to be leveling out. The increase in 7 day avg seen in Massachusetts is leveling too. What the dystopian media doesn’t say is about half the positives in a lot of areas are in the 30 and under crowd. Death numbers continue to fall. The 7 day average for that in the US is at 850. So under 1000. 
Once that 30-40 and under demographic starts to get vaccinated, the curve should start going down pretty fast. 
Breakthrough infections will fall too once less virus is circulating. People forget, or don’t know, the mumps vaccine is “only” 78% effective. There’s very little infection since most people are vaxed. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

It looks to be leveling out. The increase in 7 day avg seen in Massachusetts is leveling too. What the dystopian media doesn’t say is about half the positives in a lot of areas are in the 30 and under crowd. Death numbers continue to fall. The 7 day average for that in the US is at 850. So under 1000. 
Once that 30-40 and under demographic starts to get vaccinated, the curve should start going down pretty fast. 
Breakthrough infections will fall too once less virus is circulating. People forget, or don’t know, the mumps vaccine is “only” 78% effective. There’s very little infection since most people are vaxed. 

Good points 

[PhineasC]

10 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

It looks to be leveling out. The increase in 7 day avg seen in Massachusetts is leveling too. What the dystopian media doesn’t say is about half the positives in a lot of areas are in the 30 and under crowd. Death numbers continue to fall. The 7 day average for that in the US is at 850. So under 1000. 
Once that 30-40 and under demographic starts to get vaccinated, the curve should start going down pretty fast. 
Breakthrough infections will fall too once less virus is circulating. People forget, or don’t know, the mumps vaccine is “only” 78% effective. There’s very little infection since most people are vaxed. 

I hope people get over this idea that the virus can be “eradicated” and cases will drop to near zero. Not happening. Just the false-positive rate alone of the current testing regime will keep a slow burn of cases going forever. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I hope people get over this idea that the virus can be “eradicated” and cases will drop to near zero. Not happening. Just the false-positive rate alone of the current testing regime will keep a slow burn of cases going forever. 

Just get it to something similar to the typical flu (I guess in terms of cases/deaths) and most people will be fine with it.  
I expect that to be happening in the next two months.  Hoping at least

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

It looks to be leveling out. The increase in 7 day avg seen in Massachusetts is leveling too. What the dystopian media doesn’t say is about half the positives in a lot of areas are in the 30 and under crowd. Death numbers continue to fall. The 7 day average for that in the US is at 850. So under 1000. 
Once that 30-40 and under demographic starts to get vaccinated, the curve should start going down pretty fast. 
Breakthrough infections will fall too once less virus is circulating. People forget, or don’t know, the mumps vaccine is “only” 78% effective. There’s very little infection since most people are vaxed. 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

And don’t forget a lot of estimates of 30% in the US have already been infected even if they didn’t know it 

[WhitinsvilleWX]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

I take that as a compliment. He’s my hero 

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Just get it to something similar to the typical flu (I guess in terms of cases/deaths) and most people will be fine with it.  
I expect that to be happening in the next two months.  Hoping at least

It’s a mentality shift for people. We have had it drilled into our heads that COVID is a deadly plague. Some will not be willing to accept that cases and deaths are still out there and there is still risk (like we do with the flu). They want this to be more like smallpox or polio. The whiplash CDC messaging on this topic has been atrocious. Sometimes 100k people die of the flu in a year with millions of cases. Do you think that will be acceptable to people? Seems hard to imagine. 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

Whenever I’m in the woods and see an old stone fence or abandoned cellar hole, I think about the people who farmed there and how they must of reacted when the saw the flat, fertile land of the Midwest. They must have thought they were crazy trying to farm the rocks of New England. 

Those conditions were the main reason half of Maine was never settled, and is currently labeled "unorganized territory".  Opening of the Erie Canal plus "1816-and-froze-to-death" encouraged a lot of NNE hardscrabble farmers to head west during the subsequent decades.

Edit:  After 1:15 in the blueberry patch and pruning apple trees, I felt like it had been 2-3 times that long.  2nd Moderda reaction?  Don't know but there's lots of spring left so I quit.   
Concerning Biden's "optimism", his initial pledge was 100 million vaccinations in his first 100 days.  At the current rate of ~3 million/day, we'll be a lot closer to 200 million, with perhaps 80 million fully vaccinated - 30% of adults?

[HoarfrostHubb]

17 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It’s a mentality shift for people. We have had it drilled into our heads that COVID is a deadly plague. Some will not be willing to accept that cases and deaths are still out there and there is still risk (like we do with the flu). They want this to be more like smallpox or polio. The whiplash CDC messaging on this topic has been atrocious. Sometimes 100k people die of the flu in a year with millions of cases. Do you think that will be acceptable to people? Seems hard to imagine. 

Highest number for flu deaths I see is 61k but that is only during a 10 year period. I’m sure some will be freaked out for a while but a majority will move on    At least that is my hope

[WhitinsvilleWX]

9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Highest number for flu deaths I see is 61k but that is only during a 10 year period. I’m sure some will be freaked out for a while but a majority will move on    At least that is my hope

This mass testing has to end at some point. If we mass tested for the flu in any given year, people would be appalled at the numbers if we reported PCR tests the way they’re being used for this. The idea of test and trace was and is a farce. That was the original reason for the mass testing.  You don’t hear that anymore.
Mass testing at this point is a pointless endeavor except to see what the level is in a particular area. If you feel sick, stay home.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

This mass testing has to end at some point. If we mass tested for the flu in any given year, people would be appalled at the numbers if we reported PCR tests the way they’re being used for this. The idea of test and trace was and is a farce. That was the original reason for the mass testing.  You don’t hear that anymore.
Mass testing at this point is a pointless endeavor except to see what the level is in a particular area. If you feel sick, stay home.  

Poop testing is the way to go

[BuffaloWeather]

59 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It’s a mentality shift for people. We have had it drilled into our heads that COVID is a deadly plague. Some will not be willing to accept that cases and deaths are still out there and there is still risk (like we do with the flu). They want this to be more like smallpox or polio. The whiplash CDC messaging on this topic has been atrocious. Sometimes 100k people die of the flu in a year with millions of cases. Do you think that will be acceptable to people? Seems hard to imagine. 

I'm similar to your thinking, but its still by far the worst pandemic in a century. Without modern medical advancements it is  likely is similar to the Spanish flu. When all is said and done a few years from now I'm thinking total excess deaths are well above 5 million

[Modfan2]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm similar to your thinking, but its still by far the worst pandemic in a century. Without modern medical advancements it is  likely is similar to the Spanish flu. When all is said and done a few years from now I'm thinking total excess deaths are well above 5 million

Is it? I still question that many deaths were attributed with Covid and not from Covid. I also believe there are a decent percentage of deaths in big city hospitals due ventilation or over ventilation . At one point 60% of patients  or greater that went on a vent expired. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks like Dogecoin is going to the moon.

 

Quite literally lol 

Ethereum finally waking up and finding support above 2k.  

[PhineasC]

15 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Is it? I still question that many deaths were attributed with Covid and not from Covid. I also believe there are a decent percentage of deaths in big city hospitals due ventilation or over ventilation . At one point 60% of patients  or greater that went on a vent expired. 

The case numbers, especially when comparing to the flu, are definitely skewed. Very few people get flu tests (I'm sure someone here will have the exception to the rule anecdote -- whatever). Yet many people get COVID tests. I know some people who get tested every week, sometimes multiple times a week, for various reasons, some legit and some less so... That alone will cause the case counts to be inflated due to false positives and catching every single very mild case, not to mention just basic recording mistakes that happen.

There is also some under-reporting and over-reporting of COVID deaths going on. I suspect it isn't very common for a doctor to look at a patient dying with congestive heart failure who also has a mild flu and mark the cause of death as the flu. I suppose it happens sometimes, but in most cases the doctors would consider the flu a contributing factor, versus the cause of death. This applies to pneumonia, bronchitis, etc. as well. Anyone who has been with someone in the hospital who is dying of heart failure, cancer, lung diseases, etc. knows it is very common for them to also develop secondary infections such as colds, C. Diff, and the flu. Very common.

There will be studies that come out in 3-5 years that look at this and quietly revise the numbers in either direction. I would be interested to see what happen to the COVID death numbers if you remove those who had heart attacks, strokes, aggressive cancers, and serious lung disease *with* COVID.

 

 

[MJO812]

I'm thinking about getting the vaccine in the future.  I'm undecided  right now. 

Have any of you  had bad side effects from the vaccine  and which vaccine did you get ?

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Highest number for flu deaths I see is 61k but that is only during a 10 year period. I’m sure some will be freaked out for a while but a majority will move on    At least that is my hope

Up to 116k Americans died from the 1957 Asian flu... Another 100k+ from the Hong Kong Flu.

Probably much higher than that given the more primitive nature of testing and tracing back then.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm thinking about getting the vaccine in the future.  I'm undecided  right now. 

Have any of you  had bad side effects from the vaccine  and which vaccine did you get ?

I got J&J and it was one shot and easy. Had a little soreness in upper arm for a day but that was it. 

[PhineasC]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm thinking about getting the vaccine in the future.  I'm undecided  right now. 

Have any of you  had bad side effects from the vaccine  and which vaccine did you get ?

I’m still shocked that police are not mandated to get it. 

[BuffaloWeather]

26 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The case numbers, especially when comparing to the flu, are definitely skewed. Very few people get flu tests (I'm sure someone here will have the exception to the rule anecdote -- whatever). Yet many people get COVID tests. I know some people who get tested every week, sometimes multiple times a week, for various reasons, some legit and some less so... That alone will cause the case counts to be inflated due to false positives and catching every single very mild case, not to mention just basic recording mistakes that happen.

There is also some under-reporting and over-reporting of COVID deaths going on. I suspect it isn't very common for a doctor to look at a patient dying with congestive heart failure who also has a mild flu and mark the cause of death as the flu. I suppose it happens sometimes, but in most cases the doctors would consider the flu a contributing factor, versus the cause of death. This applies to pneumonia, bronchitis, etc. as well. Anyone who has been with someone in the hospital who is dying of heart failure, cancer, lung diseases, etc. knows it is very common for them to also develop secondary infections such as colds, C. Diff, and the flu. Very common.

There will be studies that come out in 3-5 years that look at this and quietly revise the numbers in either direction. I would be interested to see what happen to the COVID death numbers if you remove those who had heart attacks, strokes, aggressive cancers, and serious lung disease *with* COVID.

 

 

Excess deaths are a good way to measure the change in average deaths from year to year. It disputes everything you posted with facts. Excess death data shows that the real number of covid related deaths globally are far higher then documented covid deaths. It's not really disputable at all.

A breakdown of all the data globally.

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

40 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Is it? I still question that many deaths were attributed with Covid and not from Covid. I also believe there are a decent percentage of deaths in big city hospitals due ventilation or over ventilation . At one point 60% of patients  or greater that went on a vent expired. 

See above.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm thinking about getting the vaccine in the future.  I'm undecided  right now. 

Have any of you  had bad side effects from the vaccine  and which vaccine did you get ?

I got the Moderna shot on Thursday... my arm was sore, and I had slight body aches and fatigue.... this was expected though, especially since I have already had covid. Side effects appear to be more prevalent in people who have already been infected because your body is responding immediately 

[HoarfrostHubb]

37 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Up to 116k Americans died from the 1957 Asian flu... Another 100k+ from the Hong Kong Flu.

Probably much higher than that given the more primitive nature of testing and tracing back then.

Oh yeah.  That’s true. I forgot about those. I thought you meant seasonal flu.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

Wife and I both got the Pfizer. We both felt a lot of arm soreness with #1 but no other effects. For #2 we both had less soreness but more cruddy feeling for part of one day. No big deal. 
 

right now we are sitting in a brewery enjoying beer, pretzels, and pickles.  Yum. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm similar to your thinking, but its still by far the worst pandemic in a century. Without modern medical advancements it is  likely is similar to the Spanish flu. When all is said and done a few years from now I'm thinking total excess deaths are well above 5 million

When I was in college, I did a European history course and we spent significant time on the Black Death. It's hard to even wrap your head around what happened, or how prevalent things like smallpox, polio, and TB were just a few generations ago. We are very lucky to live during a time where medicine and science is so capable. 

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

When I was in college, I did a European history course and we spent significant time on the Black Death. It's hard to even wrap your head around what happened, or how prevalent things like smallpox, polio, and TB were just a few generations ago. We are very lucky to live during a time where medicine and science is so capable. 

We are definitely fortunate. Sometimes we take for granted how far we've come in the medical industry. Without immunotherapy my mom likely dies last year from cancer. Chemo and radiation didn't work.

Excess mortality rose 23% in the USA last year. Even if everything wasn't diagnosed perfectly, Covid is likely the sole reason for this.

https://scitechdaily.com/us-deaths-normally-change-less-than-2-each-year-in-2020-with-covid-they-rose-a-staggering-22-9/

[weathafella]

Data is important.  If your household amd cohort of friends and family are free from bad covid that’s great.  However, I will never forget the incredible strain on the hospital systems I was able to access last spring.   The vaccine will probably put this pandemic to bed.

[Hoosier]

Over 3.3 million people died in the United States in 2020, and there was a massive increase from recent years.

 

[weathafella]

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Over 3.3 million people died in the United States in 2020, and there was a massive increase from recent years.

 

In fact, I think we lost 1 full year on life expectancy from birth based on 2020 number!