Spring Banter

[butterfish55]

Just got my 2nd shot of Moderna at Gillette. Holy hell is it windy up here!

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Put my info into the Tesla site as well and I as given no rebates/discounts from the state. Thanks NH.

Have not checked out what Maine does for solar, as our house in the woods isn't well situated for it - some shade in the morning and would only get diffused rays if anything during the PM, plus the fun of brushing snow off the roof installation that would be necessary to avoid even more shade.  However, we got a nice rebate for our heat pump and a tax credit from the IRS.  Together they covered about 40% of the purchase/installation of the unit.  We used it very sparingly this winter but look forward to cooler and less humid air this summer, the main reason for buying it.

[monadnocks]

4 hours ago, Hoth said:

I won't make a recommendation either way, but I would strongly strongly urge you to do your due diligence before putting money at risk.

I've got a small amount of underperformers that need to go and have been looking for something interesting. This would fill the "let's see how it goes" portion of the portfolio. Any investing I do for the 1, 2, 5 or 20+ time frame meets with all the research.

[Hoth]

9 minutes ago, monadnocks said:

I've got a small amount of underperformers that need to go and have been looking for something interesting. This would fill the "let's see how it goes" portion of the portfolio. Any investing I do for the 1, 2, 5 or 20+ time frame meets with all the research.

Cool. As long as you've done your research. I just have a lot of skepticism about the way Cathy runs things. She gives me vibes of some of the momentary celebrity tech fund managers of the late '90s that blew up in the recession. Recently she tends to sell down her higher quality liquid positions and double down on lower quality illiquid stuff, which could be trouble if they face a period of sustained redemption pressure. She also recently suspended concentration limits in her funds, which from a risk management perspective is a bit of a red flag. Her research notes usually don't have any real analytical underpinnings, just a bunch of GIGO models with silly assumptions.  And I should point out that one of the biggest weightings of that space ETF you mentioned is another Ark ETF. That sort of double-dipping raises an eyebrow as well. 

[Typhoon Tip]

With a 4 or 5 trillian dollar deficit hole ... nothing in here matters - eventually that has outpaced the systemic capacity to rebound, and the only way out, is a write- off ... which soon follows devaluation of the dollar to dangerous levels, of course... all which precipitates two societal-scaled events: 

mega collapse of markets;

 

             ...   WAR   ... "picking" some aspect of reality in the world, that is "suddenly" intolerable and requires interminable manufacturing effort to industrial a response to justify.   - just like Eisenhower warned 

[Whineminster]

10 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Cool. As long as you've done your research. I just have a lot of skepticism about the way Cathy runs things. She gives me vibes of some of the momentary celebrity tech fund managers of the late '90s that blew up in the recession. Recently she tends to sell down her higher quality liquid positions and double down on lower quality illiquid stuff, which could be trouble if they face a period of sustained redemption pressure. She also recently suspended concentration limits in her funds, which from a risk management perspective is a bit of a red flag. Her research notes usually don't have any real analytical underpinnings, just a bunch of GIGO models with silly assumptions.  And I should point out that one of the biggest weightings of that space ETF you mentioned is another Ark ETF. That sort of double-dipping raises an eyebrow as well. 

That's basically making value out of thin air if you ask me.....

[bobbutts]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

Today was my 1st chance to register for the vax in NH (40+ and healthy). Got a slot today in Concord on day 1. I was on the fence about getting it, but screw it...get it done and over with. I'd rather get the vax rather than get the virus and deal with any possible effects from that. The long hauler symptoms seem pretty agonizing.

Nice, my wife and I just scheduled for Saturday

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I know a couple dudes that got theirs ...

They told me they were briefly counseled that the single one-and-done J&J shot is only 76% effective, BUT, is ( seems dubious to me but it is what it is ..) 100% supposedly effective at preventing severity - and by that meaning...no hospital stay and very, very low mortality if you do get it.   The average bloke and gal, they are going to walk away from this anyway, though ...so that comes off as marketing spin.  Hmm... I suspect what they are doing is really partially neutering the virulence ? - such that the average immune response self-resolves ... and that means by default that mortality and/or serious affliction percentages concomitantly and proportionately drop off to negligible.  Otherwise, wtf does 76% efficacy mean ...

Heh, I guess that works for me.  It's a head cold that way... probably not a severe enough one to even miss a day doing anything. 

I know four people directly that have had COVID-19 ...( and the sprinkling in here...).  So far, only 1 required hospitalization and he said to me that he was actually already rebounding for better when the doctor checked him in - he said it felt "forced" as a management decision because he had begun drinking and eating, and breathing better by that point, and the fever was sporadic and light by then.  I dunno  -

The other shot is the double whammy .. but it is said to be 96% effective/ complete prophylactic prevention against the present ubiquitous variants ...so not even a sniffle.

[TalcottWx]

Second shot of Pfizer last Friday. No significant effects. Just felt like I got punched in the arm. 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know a couple dudes that got theirs ...

They told me they were briefly counseled that the single one-and-done J&J shot is only 76% effective, BUT, is ( seems dubious to me but it is what it is ..) 100% supposedly effective at preventing severity - and by that meaning...no hospital stay and very, very low mortality if you do get it.   The average bloke and gal, they are going to walk away from this anyway, though ...so that comes off as marketing spin.  Hmm... I suspect what they are doing is really partially neutering the virulence ? - such that the average immune response self-resolves ... and that means by default that mortality and/or serious affliction percentages concomitantly and proportionately drop off to negligible.  Otherwise, wtf does 76% efficacy mean ...

Heh, I guess that works for me.  It's a head cold that way... probably not a severe enough one to even miss a day doing anything. 

I know four people directly that have had COVID-19 ...( and the sprinkling in here...).  So far, only 1 required hospitalization and he said to me that he was actually already rebounding for better when the doctor checked him in - he said it felt "forced" as a management decision because he had begun drinking and eating, and breathing better by that point, and the fever was sporadic and light by then.  I dunno  -

The other shot is the double whammy .. but it is said to be 96% effective/ complete prophylactic prevention against the present ubiquitous variants ...so not even a sniffle.

I've known some people that have had it. My sister had a mild case, like a real bad cold. My team member who is a fairly in shape and a skinny guy in his early 40s had to be hospitalized for breathing and dehydration issues. He went by ambulance, mom had to call 911. He was the type to blow it off too. It's amazing how it just has no rhyme or reason to how it hits people it seems. 

[WhitinsvilleWX]

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Second shot of Pfizer last Friday. No significant effects. Just felt like I got punched in the arm. 

That's what my first Moderna felt like.

[dryslot]

On 3/28/2021 at 1:24 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’ve been on the mass vaccine site waitlist for like 2 weeks now with nothing to speak of.

I went onto the CVS site a few minutes ago and even though it said all sites were fully booked, they had open slots at a few places.

Pretty weird, you refresh and there is a location with unlimited times, and then go back and refresh again and it’s gone, only to reappear again later, kind of glitchy.

Anyway was able to book myself and my wife’s first and second doses at the cvs in carver at the same time both days. We will be getting the Moderna vaccine according to the site.

Didn't you already have covid? And wouldn't you have antibodies?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Even with the ever expanding vaccinations,  numbers are heading in the wrong direction again.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/cdc-chief-warns-us-headed-for-impending-doom-as-covid-cases-rise-again-right-now-im-scared-.html

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I've known some people that have had it. My sister had a mild case, like a real bad cold. My team member who is a fairly in shape and a skinny guy in his early 40s had to be hospitalized for breathing and dehydration issues. He went by ambulance, mom had to call 911. He was the type to blow it off too. It's amazing how it just has no rhyme or reason to how it hits people it seems. 

Yeah that's fascinating actually -

this is mentioned out of the side of the previous CDC directors mouth in the interview with that Sonjay Gupta ( CNN medical correspondent ) ...  Former directors personal opinion is that this thing originated in a Wuhan laboratory -  that was one of the aspects he danced around, that it's biological presentation in the population is perhaps "too novel"

1 ... it was not doing what new viruses typically do; they have to go through thousands of generational failed iterations before they figure out the right combination to unlock targets and proliferate in a new species.  This one?  boom - no iterations required... Whole world gets sacked within 3 months of 'newness'  

2 ... just because that was so, it probably was an accident - we do this all the time in our laboratories across research ambits all the time, where we alter infectious agents to make them more virulent, so that we can study the infection process more efficiently ... they may have/probably were doing the same thing, and then someone got on their sleeve and the 4 months later no one's getting laid again - apparently .. f!

3 ... I heard that - my own opinion - and I thought it immediately offered some explanation as to why there is no clear pattern of who gets it and doesn't.  "Intuitively" that seems to make sense - which is a euphemism for not being a genetic engineer so wtf do I know.  But ... if they were tailoring a virus for some particular acute attack sequencing for experimental research, and hit some recessive trait ... you got that trait, your the 40 year old marathoner with a big dong vitals close to intubation while someone else's sister gets a head-cold.

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Even with the ever expanding vaccinations,  numbers are heading in the wrong direction again.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/cdc-chief-warns-us-headed-for-impending-doom-as-covid-cases-rise-again-right-now-im-scared-.html

c'mon ... we can't trust those CNBCs and CNNs.  All due respect ..the woman was completely emotional and did not offer much purer analytics to that.  Just the kind of aspect those news orgs feast about because they didn't have to spin or invent to doom - it was done for them!

Look - not preaching to you just sayn' ... - it behooves those c*sucker informatica orgs to doom-scroll because when people are locked down and/or fearing ...what do they do?

They thumb-swipe phones and mouse click PC interfaces ...glued.

The day and era that telecom figured out how to turn a thumb swipe or a mouse clicks into money...even if pennies per action, .. we were doomed alright!  Doomed to ever get an honest or optimistic spin on anything they are supposed to be "informing" - they manipulate masses just as Machiavellian and immorally as the recent incendiary rhetorical, demagogue wannabe they relentlessly attached, ever did - believe me, I am not a supporter of said asshole.  Not even remotely ...but I saw the hypocrisy plainly. 

And they know full-well the average J.Q. Jane or Jerry is just not really objectively equipped enough to adjudicate their information in a balanced sort of way that protects them from being manipulated.  CNN is particularly toe-nail curling... I catch them headline doom-bombing all the time- just get the clicker or thumb swiper into the page

That = cha ching cha ching in a system of economics that's got no compunctions about using fear to fetch dollars.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

26 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Didn't you already have covid? And wouldn't you have antibodies?

I have had it, yes. They still recommend getting the shot though.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I have had it, yes. They still recommend getting the shot though.

Don't know how true this is, But i had heard that some that had covid had some bad reactions to getting the shot thereafter.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, dryslot said:

Don't know how true this is, But i had heard that some that had covid had some bad reactions to getting the shot thereafter.

Could be. My mother got covid in between the first and second shot. She had the second shot about a week out of quarantine and was extremely sick for like 12 hours. Fever, vomit, etc etc. and then just like the snap of a finger, she was fine.

[dryslot]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Could be. My mother got covid in between the first and second shot. She had the second shot about a week out of quarantine and was extremely sick for like 12 hours. Fever, vomit, etc etc. and then just like the snap of a finger, she was fine.

Yeah, I have not researched any of it, Just what i heard so who knows, As of Thursday this week, My vaccine should be at full affect fwiw.

[Hoth]

Do we have any peer-reviewed data on the efficacy of the vaccine against B117 or the P1 variant? I'm concerned they may be different enough to evade antibodies, but I haven't seen anything concrete yet.

[tunafish]

47 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Even with the ever expanding vaccinations,  numbers are heading in the wrong direction again.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/cdc-chief-warns-us-headed-for-impending-doom-as-covid-cases-rise-again-right-now-im-scared-.html

I think most people are "over it" and have been for a long time.  People accepted the risk (real or perceived) and moved on.  Take a drive around any suburban neighborhood at 9 on a Saturday.  You'll count several driveways 10-15 cars deep with people gathering inside.

What's curious is you have just about every Northeast state at the top of the "wrong direction" list - https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/ - and the states with far fewer restrictions towards the bottom.  Why is that?  Population density?  Adverse affect of restrictions (people can't gather safely at events, so they gather unsafely in private)?

[tamarack]

I don't know either.  Would the drug companies be doing phase 3 testing with placebos as well?  Might be superfluous - with about 10% of the US population fully vaccinated and a ~5% "failure" rate, that would mean a potential 1.6 million infections of vaccinated people.  Even if it's much less so far, there should be enough to observe whether the vacc-then-COVID numbers are disproportionally of variants.
Moderna #2 this Friday.  #1 was a nothingburger, zero discomfort unless I intentionally pressed directly on the injection site, and even that was gone within 2 days.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Even with the ever expanding vaccinations,  numbers are heading in the wrong direction again.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/cdc-chief-warns-us-headed-for-impending-doom-as-covid-cases-rise-again-right-now-im-scared-.html

Going to need to wear 5 mask now.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Even with the ever expanding vaccinations,  numbers are heading in the wrong direction again.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/cdc-chief-warns-us-headed-for-impending-doom-as-covid-cases-rise-again-right-now-im-scared-.html

Not to be a dink, but literally every single one of her pressers since she took over has been like this.

Right or wrong, people’s patience with continued restrictions is wearing thin fast since we’ve cruised past the one year mark with these measures in place.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Going to need to wear 5 mask now.

[HoarfrostHubb]

40 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Do we have any peer-reviewed data on the efficacy of the vaccine against B117 or the P1 variant? I'm concerned they may be different enough to evade antibodies, but I haven't seen anything concrete yet.

Not a peer reviewed study, but an article linking some studies

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2777785

[HoarfrostHubb]

I know we will never really get to zero cases / zero deaths, but right now the US is averaging over 60k new daily cases (last 7 days) and over 1000 deaths per day.

Still too high on both for me.  1000 per day is 365,000 per year which is 6x worse than a bad flu year.

Round 2 of Pfizer coming up on Wednesday

[Lava Rock]

59 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, I have not researched any of it, Just what i heard so who knows, As of Thursday this week, My vaccine should be at full affect fwiw.

I read on wcsh FB that someone said a LTC in Oxford who was fully vaccinated in Feb recently tested pos for 25 cases. Not sure there is any truth or link to such news, but so long as nobody died or became severe, then it's probably not a big deal.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

I read on wcsh FB that someone said a LTC in Oxford who was fully vaccinated in Feb recently tested pos for 25 cases. Not sure there is any truth or link to such news, but so long as nobody died or became severe, then it's probably not a big deal.

I think people are kind of forgetting the intent of the vaccine. It’s to reduce severe cases and hospitalizations.

A friend of mines father was stunned when he tested positive between shots. It can happen, and it shouldn’t be a huge surprise 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think people are kind of forgetting the intent of the vaccine. It’s to reduce severe cases and hospitalizations.

A friend of mines father was stunned when he tested positive between shots. It can happen, and it shouldn’t be a huge surprise 

Yes, Its protection at getting severe cases, And i know someone too, That was older with co-morbidity's that caught covid after his first shot that had a mild case and is totally convinced he would have died otherwise.