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Spring Banter


Baroclinic Zone
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2 hours ago, Supernovice said:

Me thinks bonds r oversold here. 

They are way oversold. But you know the Market is taking what the Fed gave them. So i think it can continue unless we see a stock market plunge which may give yields a large bid. 

 Recall Powell weeks ago ..." Higher rates are good, and we won't step in " (not saying Powell should) but that was a giant Nod to investment banks and hedge funds  to load up nearly risk free (on top of a stimulus passage) and short the heck out of treasury's and Treasury Net short Positions swelled dramatically as they did just that.   The Fed isn't stepping in to reverse that and the ECB is pretty impotent to alter US yields so i think the pressure on bonds can be sustained unless a sizable equity plunge causes a flight to the relative short term safety on treasuries.   But who knows...they are extremely oversold...short term it seems if yields can fall back l to 1.6 on equity strength and maybe a fed governor will get the green light to burp the sound of future ...maybe ..possibly  "yield curve control"    the Nasdaq will reclaim it's 50 Day Moving average and only the high momentum /insanely valued Tech /EV stocks will lag as rest of market rises. 

 

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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The schools realized that 6' would be impossible due to classroom limitations so 3' it is.  My kid goes back first week of April.  

 

Haven't really been paying attention--has Mass been fully remote this whole year?  My kids have been 4 days a week forever it seems like.  From what they tell me its pretty much remote learning- esque, but in the classroom. Still just doing everything on their laptops, even in 1st and 3rd grade.

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8 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Haven't really been paying attention--has Mass been fully remote this whole year?  My kids have been 4 days a week forever it seems like.  From what they tell me its pretty much remote learning- esque, but in the classroom. Still just doing everything on their laptops, even in 1st and 3rd grade.

Most schools are like that even when “open.” Can’t afford to have separate teachers for remote and in-person, and providing a different education based on physical location opens up a different can of worms I won’t get into here.

This is why we committed to homeschooling long term. We don’t see schools ever really going back to “true normal” a la 2019. 

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20 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Haven't really been paying attention--has Mass been fully remote this whole year?  My kids have been 4 days a week forever it seems like.  From what they tell me its pretty much remote learning- esque, but in the classroom. Still just doing everything on their laptops, even in 1st and 3rd grade.

It's different in every town down here.  Greenfield has been remote since last Spring!  When they go back in a few weeks it regular classes with teachers and TA's.  No more laptops.

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12 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Most schools are like that even when “open.” Can’t afford to have separate teachers for remote and in-person, and providing a different education based on physical location opens up a different can of worms I won’t get into here.

This is why we committed to homeschooling long term. We don’t see schools ever really going back to “true normal” a la 2019. 

Private school for us next year.   We got a great financial aid package from a cutting edge private school in Greenfield so we're giving it a shot.  Brand new campus with state of the art ventilation system and outdoor classroom spaces.  It's more than we want to spend but we only have one kid and I wanted to give him the best shot at normalcy.  

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Ugh, my brother-in-law's father was doing better and then we just found out he's taken a turn for the worse and it's looking very bleak.  Been on a ventilator now for a couple weeks and may not make it much longer.

My BIL's brother was living at home and they think he had it first... he experienced no symptoms at all but was the first to test positive.  His mother then only had a cough for a few days and also tested positive.  His 58-year-old father got it and it sounds like he may not survive it.  Everyone bracing for the worst.  The brother's guilt is extremely high right now, thinking he may be responsible for killing his father if he doesn't recover.  That's a big burden to carry for the rest of your life, despite the fact that it's not truly your fault.  It's happened to thousands of people, spreading it to someone they love.

What a strange virus.  Three get it.  One has no symptoms, one has a cough, and another is on his deathbed.

 

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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Private school for us next year.   We got a great financial aid package from a cutting edge private school in Greenfield so we're giving it a shot.  Brand new campus with state of the art ventilation system and outdoor classroom spaces.  It's more than we want to spend but we only have one kid and I wanted to give him the best shot at normalcy.  

That’s your best bet. A private school that opens up 100% and just mandates that’s how it’s going to be, no remote. 

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ugh, my brother-in-law's father was doing better and then just found out he's taken a turn for the worse and it's looking very bleak.  Been on a ventilator now for a couple weeks and may not make it much longer.

My BIL's brother was living at home and they think he had it first... he experienced no symptoms at all but was the first to test positive.  His mother then only had a cough for a few days and also tested positive.  His 58-year-old father got it and it sounds like he may not survive it.  Everyone bracing for the worst.  The brother's guilt is extremely high right now, thinking he may be responsible for killing his father if he doesn't recover.  That's a big burden to carry for the rest of your life, despite the fact that it's not truly your fault.  It's happened to thousands of people, spreading it to someone they love.

What a strange virus.  Three get it.  One has no symptoms, one has a cough, and another is on his deathbed.

 

Was he obese? That seems to be the number one complicating disease  

He should try not to feel responsible. Easier said than done, of course. It probably won’t make him feel better to know that at some point in his life, there is a good chance he spread the flu, strep, or something like the norovirus to a vulnerable person and didn’t even realize. That’s just how life works sometimes.

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4 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

New cdc guidance should be a game changer for schools to reopen fully.  Teachers vaccinated and new guidance means there should be no excuse not to have kids in school, full time, by next fall at the latest.  

My daughter’s school (hybrid now) will be full in person 3/29.  My wife has been in with her students full in person most of the time since the fall.  
Im in hybrid now but will have all kids back by 4/28. 
Families may choose to stay remote. 
 

still lots of things to figure out but we are getting there

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24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ugh, my brother-in-law's father was doing better and then we just found out he's taken a turn for the worse and it's looking very bleak.  Been on a ventilator now for a couple weeks and may not make it much longer.

My BIL's brother was living at home and they think he had it first... he experienced no symptoms at all but was the first to test positive.  His mother then only had a cough for a few days and also tested positive.  His 58-year-old father got it and it sounds like he may not survive it.  Everyone bracing for the worst.  The brother's guilt is extremely high right now, thinking he may be responsible for killing his father if he doesn't recover.  That's a big burden to carry for the rest of your life, despite the fact that it's not truly your fault.  It's happened to thousands of people, spreading it to someone they love.

What a strange virus.  Three get it.  One has no symptoms, one has a cough, and another is on his deathbed.

 

That's awful. Sorry to hear that PF. 

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My daughter’s school (hybrid now) will be full in person 3/29.  My wife has been in with her students full in person most of the time since the fall.  
Im in hybrid now but will have all kids back by 4/28. 
Families may choose to stay remote. 
 

still lots of things to figure out but we are getting there

I am thinking it will be hard to ever tell people they can't be remote if they choose now that the "safety" genie is out of the bottle. As long as that remote option exists, it seems most public schools will need to keep doing this "remote in-person" bit where the kids are sitting at school but still on the Zoom with the remote kids. Maybe I am overstating this, but it's a concern my wife and I have had.

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