Spring Banter

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Did they switch since 2018?  

Yea

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea

I will check it out next time I’m down there.  I hope the Andrea does the beachside stuff again this summer.  That rocked 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

On 3/6/2021 at 2:48 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Any crowds there?  We went in April 2018 last...

So they are operating at 50% capacity and they were probably close...lots of mom's /kids having a blast. They obviously took a beating last summer (the busy season when they said they average 8000 guests and had 3000 daily) but they will be at full capacity this summer . 

There Was some solid dining options......i'm just somewhat picky and usually just look for a decent seafood entry that is a good size....Just so cold out that i didn't want to go down to the Mystic water front.  I stayed Across from the Aquarium at the Hilton and i just had a nice dinner downstairs (The Irons) .  I wanted to check out the Casino but i'm not a big fan of the odds...so i checked it out during the day...semi depressing scene...mostly elderly just pulling slots...lol got a 20$ burger and then rode some racing go karts which was cool . Spent rest of time in Mystic. I just wanted to try a different area and Stowe was priced like Gamestop stock ("to the moon") 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Don't worry i'm not going to rapid post about "bond yields" but the market for the short term is in very shaky territory (Energy and financials have been holding SPX up decently) as Nasdaq has been horrible.   So this will be only post for a couple days on it. 

The High valuation growth stocks with optimistic far in the future revenue projections (should keep falling) even if that bottom is a 70% haircut ....the Big industry leading tech stocks with enormous Growth/ revenue / that was not dependent on Covid will continue to be safe and Best plays long term (GOOG/AMD/NVDA)  ..we do have a relatively high level of distress and volatility ahead in the short term due to  rapidly rising bond yields and how quickly they are rising out of a incredibly low rate environment (that environment is what  fueled the speculation that caused the SP 500 to rise regardless of how many deaths there were and how depressed economy had been )  .  As the market adjusts to this yield Regime change so to speak valuation in certain sectors are bankrupting many of the retail traders..who thought "stonks only go up" .  if rates were rising slowly this would not spook the market so much ...but the market had extremely high levels of Margin debt that was used to lever up long bullish bets on stocks...and now the Fed Reserve has a chairman Powell who is trying to juggle several Fed takes at once and stay consistent  1. He wont raise short term rates (fed funds rate)  2. he isn't worried about inflation 3. He decided that rising rates were a sign of confidence and he is willing to sit on his hands  and not intervene.

Number 3 is the problem as there is a tidal wave of liquidity available in this market and the market is a bunch of addicts seeking Alpha returns ....the reason that is a problem is because the investors/ market "doesn't fight the fed"  (speculation generally invests in areas the Fed appears to support then flees areas they are not) ....and right now Powell by saying "he is sitting on his hands and won't intervene in rising bond yields " that increase borrowing costs and will hurt housing market if this persists and slow the recovery..he even said rising yields can be seen as confidence in market....bad move ....

The reason this is a big problem is  because the market is merciless and they will take that as we should gather all available liquidity and short the long bond (Push the yield/interest rate up on the 10 year /30 year bond because the Fed is telling thus they won't intervene to stop us...they see rising rates as a good thing lol . So the market says ...thanks Jay ...we will do this ....and ya equities could may have begun to face a disorderly unwind due to the amount of margin debt that is long stocks...and how certain highly weighted sectors have been falling as rates rise....this can spill to all sectors but so far it hasn't and the VIX has behaved.... the amount of intervention required for fed to cap yields is not well known ...just speaking that they are willing to step in could work (because market doesn't want to fight the fed) but it  requires Powell being nimble to  reversing their "blah blah rising yields is great  talk " but this casino is also directly tied to the solvency of Pensions , household balance sheets and the Fed would have to turn tail if we see Bond yields rise dramatically because there is a imaginary line where fear crosses into the market and it is difficult to shake out when it does and that is when very sizable moves occur in short time frames ... it should be a fun ride...maybe we just fall another percent or two and trade sideways for a bit .....or  as Stocks should keep falling in a  volatile fashion as there is nothing (so far being said by FED) to stop the green light they inadvertently gave to hedge funds or large investment banks to lever up and short 10 year bond yields..i would favor this route unless the FED talks up intervention more than they have. 

   I would guess we could see 2.0 on the 10 year by the first week of April and the average 30 year mortgage rate may go above 3.30 or so by then before the Fed is forced to expand intervention and cap yield rises. 

[CoastalWx]

I appreciate these little market tips/info. Has allowed me to educate myself on this stuff which frankly I was clueless on.

[PhineasC]

42 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Don't worry i'm not going to rapid post about "bond yields" but the market for the short term is in very shaky territory (Energy and financials have been holding SPX up decently) as Nasdaq has been horrible.   So this will be only post for a couple days on it. 

The High valuation growth stocks with optimistic far in the future revenue projections (should keep falling) even if that bottom is a 70% haircut ....the Big industry leading tech stocks with enormous Growth/ revenue / that was not dependent on Covid will continue to be safe and Best plays long term (GOOG/AMD/NVDA)  ..we do have a relatively high level of distress and volatility ahead in the short term due to  rapidly rising bond yields and how quickly they are rising out of a incredibly low rate environment (that environment is what  fueled the speculation that caused the SP 500 to rise regardless of how many deaths there were and how depressed economy had been )  .  As the market adjusts to this yield Regime change so to speak valuation in certain sectors are bankrupting many of the retail traders..who thought "stonks only go up" .  if rates were rising slowly this would not spook the market so much ...but the market had extremely high levels of Margin debt that was used to lever up long bullish bets on stocks...and now the Fed Reserve has a chairman Powell who is trying to juggle several Fed takes at once and stay consistent  1. He wont raise short term rates (fed funds rate)  2. he isn't worried about inflation 3. He decided that rising rates were a sign of confidence and he is willing to sit on his hands  and not intervene.

Number 3 is the problem as there is a tidal wave of liquidity available in this market and the market is a bunch of addicts seeking Alpha returns ....the reason that is a problem is because the investors/ market "doesn't fight the fed"  (speculation generally invests in areas the Fed appears to support then flees areas they are not) ....and right now Powell by saying "he is sitting on his hands and won't intervene in rising bond yields " that increase borrowing costs and will hurt housing market if this persists and slow the recovery..he even said rising yields can be seen as confidence in market....bad move ....

The reason this is a big problem is  because the market is merciless and they will take that as we should gather all available liquidity and short the long bond (Push the yield/interest rate up on the 10 year /30 year bond because the Fed is telling thus they won't intervene to stop us...they see rising rates as a good thing lol . So the market says ...thanks Jay ...we will do this ....and ya equities could may have begun to face a disorderly unwind due to the amount of margin debt that is long stocks...and how certain highly weighted sectors have been falling as rates rise....this can spill to all sectors but so far it hasn't and the VIX has behaved.... the amount of intervention required for fed to cap yields is not well known ...just speaking that they are willing to step in could work (because market doesn't want to fight the fed) but it  requires Powell being nimble to  reversing their "blah blah rising yields is great  talk " but this casino is also directly tied to the solvency of Pensions , household balance sheets and the Fed would have to turn tail if we see Bond yields rise dramatically because there is a imaginary line where fear crosses into the market and it is difficult to shake out when it does and that is when very sizable moves occur in short time frames ... it should be a fun ride...maybe we just fall another percent or two and trade sideways for a bit .....or  as Stocks should keep falling in a  volatile fashion as there is nothing (so far being said by FED) to stop the green light they inadvertently gave to hedge funds or large investment banks to lever up and short 10 year bond yields..i would favor this route unless the FED talks up intervention more than they have. 

   I would guess we could see 2.0 on the 10 year by the first week of April and the average 30 year mortgage rate may go above 3.30 or so by then before the Fed is forced to expand intervention and cap yield rises. 

If you had 500k you could put anywhere for anything, what would you do with it?

[Lava Rock]

If you had 500k you could put anywhere for anything, what would you do with it?

Send it to me

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Send it to me

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

LOL we have seen enough of your lifestyle pics already. You are living well. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

If you had 500k you could put anywhere for anything, what would you do with it?

Game Stop, at least that’s what the millionaires on Reddit show when they post screen shots of their investments lol.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

If you had 500k you could put anywhere for anything, what would you do with it?

Probably build a gym for women 50 and up.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably build a gym for women 50 and up.

The 45 and up divorcees are generally very appreciative of anyone younger and In decent shape paying them attention . Where I work ..They have the money /career, usually a kid they love and If there looks aren’t dead ..they just want to feel alive / a spark again ..it’s the truth. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The 45 and up divorcees are generally very appreciative of anyone younger and In decent shape paying them attention . Where I work ..They have the money /career, usually a kid they love and If there looks aren’t dead ..they just want to feel alive / a spark again ..it’s the truth. 

Do you ever light their wicks with your matchstick?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 hours ago, PhineasC said:

If you had 500k you could put anywhere for anything, what would you do with it?

I would park most of it in cash for the short term and be defensive , we are in a pretty rare spot where bonds selling off is hurting stocks . The couple sectors holding up (fiancé and energy ) are quite overbought and if they join the selling , there could be quite the sale in almost all asset classes That come to mind .. O and a rising 30 year bond is not good for a housing market at these current price to income multiples , thou that takes time to work its way thru.

I think the speed at which bonds are moving will give visibility to the currently foggy outcome rather quickly .

In the end ..Foreign equities may attract more capital and may enjoy continued bull markets .
 

I would just wait till there is a little more visibility with regard to big speculators shorting  bonds and the fall out in stocks. At some point the fed would have to move in and I honestly hope they are just letting some steam off markets because the Federal reserve is actually tightening policy (inadvertently) right now by encouraging speculators to short bonds Which increases mortgage rates , lowers bond values and stock prices all at once . It’s ironic that most people seem to forget Again that  the “market” is still severely disconnected from the economy and even thou the economy is starting  To turn back up doesn’t mean the Fed can afford to lessen accommodative policy, Sadly , asset values at current valuations  are built on a mountain made of sand,  But also integral to a solvent pension system and much more . Monetary systems Like people become more Fragile and require more care *the older they get* (Especially those that are debt based an accrue interest) ..but this isn’t always understood because it wouldn’t necessarily contribute to confidence in the system. 

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I would park most of it in cash for the short term and be defensive , we are in a pretty rare spot where bonds selling off is hurting stocks . The couple sectors holding up (fiancé and energy ) are quite overbought and if they join the selling , there could be quite the sale in almost all asset classes That come to mind .. O and a rising 30 year bond is not good for a housing market at these current price to income multiples , thou that takes time to work its way thru.

I think the speed at which bonds are moving will give visibility to the currently foggy outcome rather quickly .

In the end ..Foreign equities may attract more capital and may enjoy continued bull markets .
 

I would just wait till there is a little more visibility with regard to big speculators shorting  bonds and the fall out in stocks. At some point the fed would have to move in and I honestly hope they are just letting some steam off markets because the Federal reserve is actually tightening policy (inadvertently) right now by encouraging speculators to short bonds Which increases mortgage rates , lowers bond values and stock prices all at once . It’s ironic that most people seem to forget Again that  the “market” is still severely disconnected from the economy and even thou the economy is starting  To turn back up doesn’t mean the Fed can afford to lessen accommodative policy, Sadly , asset values at current valuations  are built on a mountain made of sand,  But also integral to a solvent pension system and much more . Monetary systems Like people become more Fragile and require more care *the older they get* (Especially those that are debt based an accrue interest) ..but this isn’t always understood because it wouldn’t necessarily contribute to confidence in the system. 

You like $dis for 2021?

[Supernovice]

Underreported- given rate changes there will be a lot of rebalancing of institutional money at quarter end.  Speaking from experience- I will be reducing eq exposure throughout this month. Just standard rebalancing, but we will not be alone. Will this impact markets...ehhh maybe a bit as we work through the month. Personally very bullish April and May and much less so as we approach the summer. I see vol persisting for the time being. 

For those w strong stomachs, some of the most loved sectors and individual stocks over the past 6-8 months, in my opinion are oversold. I’m a net buyer here for my personal account, tbh I bought all last week and got murdered, but this is a long game.

$500k? depends on your horizon. 80-20 eq for anything over 10 yrs. I’d split that eq 60-40 us/ non- us. And then break it down further between small/ large cap. The 40 would then be split 25-15 developed/ emerging. All passive index’s, maybe a small active small cap allocation and a small active emerging position. On the FI side, any corporate bond fund would have to be active, any govt bond positions would be passive. All of this is hypothetical of course.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

57 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

You like $dis for 2021?

I wouldn't really be comfortable with many equities right now, that said i haven't looked at DIS valuations or projected revenue/EPS growth in 2021..if the valuations are near DIS historical levels and the EPS/Revenue growth  look good with reopening...then i think its a solid place to be regarding equities (which may all be under pressure for a bit) . Any stock that is seeing tremendous Growth in Revenue/EPS like some of the Tech names like NVDA/GOOG/AMD i really like for the long run but i wouldn't be shocked to see another 15% come of the top first. The stocks with insane valuations and pretty growth stories that are 3-4 years out just had the sun set on them for a while unless the Fed does a 180 and moves into to do some Major QE And bond buying on the long end of the  bond curve to surpress those 10-30 year yields/interest rates that really got us to the historic stock valuations we just had. If the fed intervenes and brings the 10 year yield and 30 year back down to 1 and 2 percent respectively the music begins playing again , until then things have just had a major shift. 

People need to understand one thing. Doesn't really matter their level of knowledge. I've been listening to what i consider a wide swath of some of the greatest minds in this field every day for the last year..they don't all say the same thing...by any stretch of the imagination but one thing seems to ring true. 

Listen to minute 7:06 to 8:55 of this interview for anyone who owns stocks. Especially the sentence at 8:13 (where reversal in long run discount factor means reversal in long term bond rates i.e yields rise)   You don't have to understand every word but he sort of repeats the same thing a few times. 

 

[#NoPoles]

I dont have a clue when it comes to investing...first time in my life where I have extra to invest...it's just sitting in my regular account doing nothing

[HIPPYVALLEY]

12 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

I dont have a clue when it comes to investing...first time in my life where I have extra to invest...it's just sitting in my regular account doing nothing

Volatile market right now.  Some of the more experienced financial folks here probably have some good advice.   One of the low risk ETF’s can earn you more interest than any bank. There are certainly options that fit whatever your social conscience might be.

[TalcottWx]

29 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

I dont have a clue when it comes to investing...first time in my life where I have extra to invest...it's just sitting in my regular account doing nothing

If you're not comfortable with investing, I reccomend high yield savings account or just etfs

[TalcottWx]

31 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I wouldn't really be comfortable with many equities right now, that said i haven't looked at DIS valuations or projected revenue/EPS growth in 2021..if the valuations are near DIS historical levels and the EPS/Revenue growth  look good with reopening...then i think its a solid place to be regarding equities (which may all be under pressure for a bit) . Any stock that is seeing tremendous Growth in Revenue/EPS like some of the Tech names like NVDA/GOOG/AMD i really like for the long run but i wouldn't be shocked to see another 15% come of the top first. The stocks with insane valuations and pretty growth stories that are 3-4 years out just had the sun set on them for a while unless the Fed does a 180 and moves into to do some Major QE And bond buying on the long end of the  bond curve to surpress those 10-30 year yields/interest rates that really got us to the historic stock valuations we just had. If the fed intervenes and brings the 10 year yield and 30 year back down to 1 and 2 percent respectively the music begins playing again , until then things have just had a major shift. 

People need to understand one thing. Doesn't really matter their level of knowledge. I've been listening to what i consider a wide swath of some of the greatest minds in this field every day for the last year..they don't all say the same thing...by any stretch of the imagination but one thing seems to ring true. 

Listen to minute 7:06 to 8:55 of this interview for anyone who owns stocks. Especially the sentence at 8:13 (where reversal in long run discount factor means reversal in long term bond rates i.e yields rise)   You don't have to understand every word but he sort of repeats the same thing a few times. 

 

Love your insight. Why Google Nvidia and amd? 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Volatile market right now.  Some of the more experienced financial folks here probably have some good advice.   One of the low risk ETF’s can earn you more interest than any bank. There are certainly options that fit whatever your social conscience might be.

One very successful investor i follow and subscribe to has a portfolio that he doesn't aggressively manage...he just looks for buying opportunities in a few select names of major tech stocks when their valuations are favorable and that look to be tied into what he sees as  the major mechanisms of growth in the next 20 years...A.I / Cloud computing/Robotics/Deep mind    so he has a basket of say NVDA/AMD/GOOG/AMZN  and he looks to add on dips when his valuation metrics look favorable....and he reshuffles his holdings to reflect a companies positioning/ leadership in the field (I.E he dropped Intel over a year ago when NVDA began crushing them) ..When a stock runs too far too fast he sometimes sells a sizable portion (like AMZN in June ...right now he is looking at any dips as great buying opportunities in all 4 names...if i had a large amount of capital i would generally trust his advice as I've followed him since 2008 and he called the bottom in 2009 and encouraged investors to buy aggressively then...he was all in all of the 2009-2018 period as most were thinking that bull market would die any one of those years...  called the buying opportunity in Covid last spring (i.e he doesn't panic) . His name is Nadeem Walayat and he runs the market oracle site and if you find his articles you can search his archives for his advice around those dates and it's the best i have found over the greatest period.  We shall see how he does in the next 10 years.   http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/UserInfo-Nadeem_Walayat.html

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 hours ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Love your insight. Why Google Nvidia and Amd? 

It's really based on the Guy i have followed for 12 years that i commented about and linked his archives in the response to Hippy, i mean i don't just follow him like a puppy but overall it checks out with what a lot of the smart minds seem to be saying regarding where huge growth is and will continue to be taking place. They aren't speculative stocks that are gonna tank ...they are billion dollar beasts that are leaders in their field.

I will say ... I believe almost all stock investing is more risky than what most professional will admit to since the returns they have presided over have not seen a financial system this dependent on fed intervention

The Fed is going to let a ton more pain occur based on what they have said , the biggest hope would be the ECB acting aggressively to stem bond yields (they have at least tried to talk them down but the market wants action) . They release KEY data today on wether they increased bond buying last week (which will show their level of effort/concern) and the market will react, they also meet this week to go over current policies , so if this sell off is going to end this week , it’s gonna need a aggressive increase in QE from Euro Central Bank , I just don’t know if they can do the heavy lifting required.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I dabble here and there in stocks, but we are only talking a couple hundred dollars or so. I don’t have the appetite to actively manage my investments as far as stocks go.

Does anyone here use betterment? I have a Roth IRA set up with them, and it has done incredibly well over the last year ( what hasn’t LOL). I use their in house portfolio, and it seems to be pretty solid.

I put like 100 bucks in a month to supplement my main retirement with my employer. 
 

My Betterment Roth is significantly out-gaining my employer TIAA over the last 4-5 months or so

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

If you're not comfortable with investing, I reccomend high yield savings account or just etfs

I’d also suggest a Roth IRA. It basically doubles as a savings account.

 

[monadnocks]

1 hour ago, #NoPoles said:

I dont have a clue when it comes to investing...first time in my life where I have extra to invest...it's just sitting in my regular account doing nothing

Do you have an emergency fund? That's what I'd do with extra money first and park it in a savings account paying the best you can find. It's generally 0.5% these days. Do you have a 401(k)? Getting at least your employer's match is probably the next best choice because you're guaranteed to get that return.

Hippy's right - there are some exceptionally low cost ETFs out there. You could take Supernovice's breakdown and implement it in a group of ETFs. 

[SouthCoastMA]

I have Roth IRA (plus a separate one for my wife, which you can do), whole life policy, then dabble in some stocks. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

It’s a rare thing , but if the equity indexes are going to be “saved” from rising yields soon, it Likely won’t be the Fed. The Fed isn’t close to acting , Powell has no support to intervene at these 10 year levels and they are also hinting they will wait till credit spreads widen in other parts of the market like High yield spreads and investment grade spreads ...I.E they will not be proactive ..but reactive . 

If markets are going to be saved (before much more pain) it’s going to be from the European Central Bank (ECB) they are the ones with Some countries  in some Kind of recession , the increase in 10 year yield globally has caused  Their member countries  flat to negative growth to stop improving  , And led them to  at least Talk in a way that market wants to hear but the market (without Fed reserve help) is going to require big action from ECB .

. The ECB also meets Thursday to discuss policy so any spike in yields This week may actually be good bc it could force them to act and increase QE to target reduction in long bond rates .

That really is the key this week , otherwise we are just waiting for market to be hit by a selling attack . Bonds are wildly oversold so they could bounce here with equities but even thou I'm a bit over my head this sure is fun ha. 

back to regular scheduled programming 

[mreaves]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s a rare thing , but if the equity indexes are going to be “saved” from rising yields soon, it Likely won’t be the Fed. The Fed isn’t close to acting , Powell has no support to intervene at these 10 year levels and they are also hinting they will wait till credit spreads widen in other parts of the market like High yield spreads and investment grade spreads ...I.E they will not be proactive ..but reactive . That opens the door to A size-able Fall and my belief is this will take most everything down regarding sectors (even energy / finance ) thou they will bounce back in between selling pressure 

If markets are going to be saved (before much more pain) it’s going to be from the European Central Bank (ECB) they are the ones with Some countries  in some Kind of recession , the increase in 10 year yield globally has caused  Their member countries  flat to negative growth to stop improving  , And led them to  at least Talk in a way that market wants to hear but the market (without Fed reserve help) is going to require big action from ECB .
 

There is data released today that will reveal ECB’s true willingness to act (their bond buying levels from last week are revealed) And wether or not the ECB is just talk . The ECB also meets Thursday to discuss policy so any spike in yields This week may actually be good bc it could force them to act and increase QE to target reduction in long bond rates .

That really is the key this week , otherwise we are just waiting for market to be hit by a selling attack . 
back to regular scheduled programming 

So I have a very, very limited knowledge of high level economics but, do you think the Fed is trying to let some of the air out of the markets while counting on a strong recovery as we move out of the pandemic?  The thinking being that the recovery will dull the pain.

[Ginx snewx]

Pickles is the Tip of stock discussion. Epic novels

[SouthCoastMA]

10 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d also suggest a Roth IRA. It basically doubles as a savings account.

 

Plus it's post tax. Any contributions to it are already considered as taxed.  After 59 you can deduct any earnings tax free.