March Banter 2021

[Avdave]

3 hours ago, nj2va said:

We are thinking the lakes region in NH although I’m not sure I could deal with snow when I’m retired. Then again we’re in our 30s so by the time we retire global warming will make it 55 in NH during winter.  

I actually tried to get my partner to move to NC recently but he likes this area too much and we’re closer to family in NJ, NH and NY. 

NH is very nice in the lakes region area. I miss it up there, but now Im about 50, I dont miss the looooong winters and snow removal at 4am to get out of the driveway for work.  Too bad you guys didnt move here, we could go to Canes hockey games.  I do miss NJ and NYC though with whats left of my family up there, but have quite a few friends still up there. 

[snowfan]

Re: WFH.....our agency is taking this time as an opportunity to gut and redesign the interior of the bldg. The result is that WFH continues til the fall of '22. And, when we do return, if you're not someone that MUST be in the office you'll be hoteling and only in on a limited basis. 

[MillvilleWx]

8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Para with crushing qpf just nw of Denver proper. 

 

Golden/Boulder/Fort Collins line in CO going to see 2-4' of snow from this one. It'll be an event to remember in those parts. 

[RDM]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Golden/Boulder/Fort Collins line in CO going to see 2-4' of snow from this one. It'll be an event to remember in those parts. 

You can see the fetch just starting to develop over NW Kansas.  Been in a front range upslope event in the Springs back in the late 60's.  Was amazing experience as a youngster.  

[Baltimorewx]

@CAPE it was you that said to get panther cub right? I picked up a 4 pack. Debating popping one open

[CAPE]

Just now, Baltimorewx said:

@CAPE it was you that said to get panther cub right? I picked up a 4 pack. Debating popping one open

Good stuff.

[Baltimorewx]

2 hours ago, vastateofmind said:

Alright, @CAPE, @nw baltimore wx, @Baltimorewx, @Scraff, and others I'm probably leaving out -- what beers are on deck for happy hour this evening? Haven't made up my mind yet, or else I'd be posting a pour pic right now...   

I had a couple manhattan style drinks already at Jimmys seafood. Debating popping open a founders panther cup as a nightcap. I kinda need to chill with the drinking but ah, oh well lol

[Baltimorewx]

So Founders Panther Cub..it’s not bad. It’s decent. I like the vanilla flavor. But I’m not getting much barrel aged flavor. It’s a porter though so I understand flavors may not shine as much as a stout. Maybe it’ll get better as it warms. It’s good, just wish there was more barrel flavor

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, vastateofmind said:

I am indeed at DAU...for nearly 20 years now.   

My wife was a PLD for ACQ PM before and just after my daughter was born about 8 years ago!

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

So Founders Panther Cub..it’s not bad. It’s decent. I like the vanilla flavor. But I’m not getting much barrel aged flavor. It’s a porter though so I understand flavors may not shine as much as a stout. Maybe it’ll get better as it warms. It’s good, just wish there was more barrel flavor

Its a porter, so its a bit "thin" compared to a barrel aged stout. I thought the flavors were all well balanced though. I got the hint of maple, vanilla, and the bourbon. Nothing was overwhelming, which I thought was good. No it isn't a GI BCS by any means, but it is well done and very good in its class.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

Re: WFH.....our agency is taking this time as an opportunity to gut and redesign the interior of the bldg. The result is that WFH continues til the fall of '22. And, when we do return, if you're not someone that MUST be in the office you'll be hoteling and only in on a limited basis. 

That’s fantastic. This is really what should happen.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Golden/Boulder/Fort Collins line in CO going to see 2-4' of snow from this one. It'll be an event to remember in those parts. 

I’ll never forget watching this game:

 

[Baltimorewx]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Its a porter, so its a bit "thin" compared to a barrel aged stout. I thought the flavors were all well balanced though. I got the hint of maple, vanilla, and the bourbon. Nothing was overwhelming, which I thought was good. No it isn't a GI BCS by any means, but it is well done and very good in its class.

Yeah I hear you. It’s probably my palate to a fault. I’ve just been real big on barrel flavored stuff lately. So if there isn’t a decent barreled presence to me, it falls a little short. Thanks for the recommendation though! $16 for a 4 pack of something like this still ain’t bad

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I’ll never forget watching this game:

 

I remember this game. Costa Rica was so mad that it was played, but hey, all conditions that aren't life threatening. Not going to die from snow. Home field advantage ftw lol

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

I remember this game. Costa Rica was so mad that it was played, but hey, all conditions that aren't life threatening. Not going to die from snow. Home field advantage ftw lol

No sh*t, right? We go down there and play in truly awful conditions and facilities and get batteries and bags of piss thrown at us, so forgive me if my heart doesn’t bleed for you for you have to deal with some snow.

[CAPE]

Latest AFD Denver/Boulder-

...POWERFUL WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY... Despite some of the wild gyrations we`ve seen in model guidance, the overall plan with this storm is still the same. In fact, the latest EC and GEM ensemble data suggest about the same evolution, if not slightly higher totals, than previous runs. The EC ensemble average is now up slightly to about 1.8" liquid equivalent for Denver, the GEM remains at ~2.4", while the GEFS was down to about 1.8", following the lead of the wildly erratic GFS. The bottom line is that the value of the ensemble data is huge in this storm, and we`ll be keeping the forecast relatively unchanged at this point and favoring the EC ensemble blend. This storm has everything going for it, including infusion of rich Gulf of Mexico moisture, a pronounced TROWAL, a persistent period of moderate to strong QG lift, long duration, and strong upslope as long as the 500 mb low tracks across east central/southeast Colorado. So far, most model averages (not the 12Z NAM and GFS) are still sticking with the upper low tracking from near the Four Corners into southeast Colorado, putting northeast Colorado in a very favorable area for strong lift, upslope, and heavy snowfall. We`ve overall kept the forecast relatively unchanged for this event with 14 to 24 inches for the I-25 Urban Corridor, with locally heavier amounts possible toward Boulder and Golden depending on exact track and evolution of the storm, of course. Foothills should see 2 to 4 foot totals with the heaviest favoring Larimer County. Again, any slight change in track could result in much higher/lower amounts. The 10-90% snowfall graphics represent this uncertainty well, with bottom end (10th percentile) 10" amounts along the I-25 Corridor but the 90th percentile showing amounts near 30". Foothills areas go as high as several feet in the 90th percentile, or worst case scenario!

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest AFD Denver/Boulder-

...POWERFUL WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY... Despite some of the wild gyrations we`ve seen in model guidance, the overall plan with this storm is still the same. In fact, the latest EC and GEM ensemble data suggest about the same evolution, if not slightly higher totals, than previous runs. The EC ensemble average is now up slightly to about 1.8" liquid equivalent for Denver, the GEM remains at ~2.4", while the GEFS was down to about 1.8", following the lead of the wildly erratic GFS. The bottom line is that the value of the ensemble data is huge in this storm, and we`ll be keeping the forecast relatively unchanged at this point and favoring the EC ensemble blend. This storm has everything going for it, including infusion of rich Gulf of Mexico moisture, a pronounced TROWAL, a persistent period of moderate to strong QG lift, long duration, and strong upslope as long as the 500 mb low tracks across east central/southeast Colorado. So far, most model averages (not the 12Z NAM and GFS) are still sticking with the upper low tracking from near the Four Corners into southeast Colorado, putting northeast Colorado in a very favorable area for strong lift, upslope, and heavy snowfall. We`ve overall kept the forecast relatively unchanged for this event with 14 to 24 inches for the I-25 Urban Corridor, with locally heavier amounts possible toward Boulder and Golden depending on exact track and evolution of the storm, of course. Foothills should see 2 to 4 foot totals with the heaviest favoring Larimer County. Again, any slight change in track could result in much higher/lower amounts. The 10-90% snowfall graphics represent this uncertainty well, with bottom end (10th percentile) 10" amounts along the I-25 Corridor but the 90th percentile showing amounts near 30". Foothills areas go as high as several feet in the 90th percentile, or worst case scenario!

The TROWAL with this will be textbook and worthy of studying. It's very pronounced on guidance as you can see the 700mb moisture field wrap into the CCB on guidance. Sometimes you'll see hints of it on guidance, but this sticks like a sore thumb. There will be some incredible rates in this one. 2-4"/hr for hrs is not out of the question. 

[MN Transplant]

This one looks like a beaut all the way up to the Black Hills.  Wouldn’t mind being in Estes or Nederland.

[MillvilleWx]

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

This one looks like a beaut all the way up to the Black Hills.  Wouldn’t mind being in Estes or Nederland.

Estes, hills of Boulder, and Fort Collins in CO, Cheyanne to Scottsbluff in WY/NE. It's going to be wild to watch. Very dynamic system. 110+kt 5H jet max rolling through the base. It'll strengthen over SE CO late tomorrow into Sunday. It's the perfect combo for a Front Range special. 

[MN Transplant]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Estes, hills of Boulder, and Fort Collins in CO, Cheyanne to Scottsbluff in WY/NE. It's going to be wild to watch. Very dynamic system. 110+kt 5H jet max rolling through the base. It'll strengthen over SE CO late tomorrow into Sunday. It's the perfect combo for a Front Range special. 

If you compare modeling, though, it does look like this is the storm that finally broke the GFS.  None of the others are even close to the QPF that the GFS is spitting out.

[CAPE]

 

28 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The TROWAL with this will be textbook and worthy of studying. It's very pronounced on guidance as you can see the 700mb moisture field wrap into the CCB on guidance. Sometimes you'll see hints of it on guidance, but this sticks like a sore thumb. There will be some incredible rates in this one. 2-4"/hr for hrs is not out of the question. 

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

If you compare modeling, though, it does look like this is the storm that finally broke the GFS.  None of the others are even close to the QPF that the GFS is spitting out.

Yeah. BOU has been going with ECM and Deterministic blend for days since the GFS has been jumpy and not nearly as consistent with the handling of the 5H low. It tends to struggle with them out here. We lean more Euro as well with these situations. 

[MillvilleWx]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 

Here's a money shot frame right here

Can see the front range Rockies convergence towards Denver and areas to the north. The 700mb moisture field shows a beautiful mid-level low with moisture wrap into where the CCB positioning would be. The storm is basically stacked at that point in your image. Absolute beauty

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[mattie g]

I come into banter to get away from our shite winter weather. Thanks for reminding us how crap we are, everyone.

[Ji]

Doesn't hold a candle to this beast exactly 28 years ago  to the day . I remember like it was yesterday. 
 

Amazing event

[jaydreb]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Estes, hills of Boulder, and Fort Collins in CO, Cheyanne to Scottsbluff in WY/NE. It's going to be wild to watch. Very dynamic system. 110+kt 5H jet max rolling through the base. It'll strengthen over SE CO late tomorrow into Sunday. It's the perfect combo for a Front Range special. 

Just spoke with my brother-in-law who lives in Niwot, CO, about 15 minutes N of Boulder.  They are expecting 2 feet on the low end, with potential for 3-4 feet.  Absolutely insane and if it wasn’t for this coronavirus I would be on a plane to chase.  

[jaydreb]

3 hours ago, snowfan said:

Re: WFH.....our agency is taking this time as an opportunity to gut and redesign the interior of the bldg. The result is that WFH continues til the fall of '22. And, when we do return, if you're not someone that MUST be in the office you'll be hoteling and only in on a limited basis. 

That is epic.  Which agency is this?  I hope mine follows a similar path.  

[mattie g]

15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

My wire prices have skyrocketed the past 2 weeks.  2 weeks ago I paid $63 for a 250 foot roll of romex house wire . Today I paid $100 for that same roll . I needed 3 rolls so that's $110 gone . I expected the increases after the election but wow ...this is worse then I expected.  Hopefully it stabilizes but I doubt it . 

But the price of copper would increase because of stimulus and an expected increase in post-pandemic construction, right? Except for stimulus, what does that have to do with the election?

[GATECH]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Doesn't hold a candle to this beast exactly 28 years ago  to the day . I remember like it was yesterday. 
 

Amazing event

Omg 28 years ago!  I am so old.  Never thought I would be under a blizzard warning in ATL, or see Thunder snow there...I have been truly blessed by the weather I have seen in my lifetime...I have seen it all, from crazy blizzards in CO, to blizzards in DC, tornados to canes, but the Storm of the Century (20th Century) will always be the pinnacle....so far!